Running sim on '14 Cougs yields crazy results

FOR ALL THE attention paid to statistics in college football, the games are not played on paper, nor on a computer. And, in running a computer simulation on the 2014 WSU season, for good reason., a site for simulating college basketball and football games, is bearish this season when it comes to the Cougs.

In running a simulation on the 2014 WSU football season, where each game was simulated a minimum of 20 times, they see the Cougs winning only two games.

And Portland State isn't one of them.

Week 1: WSU won 9, Rutgers 11
Week 2: WSU won 8, UNLV 12
Week 3: WSU won 8, Portland State won 12
Week 4: WSU won 4, Oregon 16
Week 5: WSU won 10, Utah won 11
Week 6: WSU won 15, Cal won 5
Week 7: WSU won 4, Stanford won 16
Week 8: WSU won 11, Arizona won 9
Week 9: WSU won 4, USC won 16
Week 10: WSU won 11, Oregon State won 14
Week 11: WSU won 11, ASU won 9
Week 12: WSU won 9, UW won 11

Before you begin pounding your computer with your keyboard, consider that the simulations are derived from the 2013 statistics.

Game Sim, it says on the site, takes the team's statistical profile and plays out each snap.

So players who graduated last year are including in the sumulation. A team with the lead at the end of the game doesn't take a knee, they continue to not only run plays but to pass and throw incompletions.

And it also treats all statistics equally -- a statistically superior FCS team comes out favorably against an FBS team who has lesser stats.

Case in point: In a simulation pitting the 2013 FCS champion North Dakota State and FBS national title winner Florida State, Game Sim said North Dakota State would beat Florida State 60 percent of the time.

Game Sim is probably a little more realistic when it comes to college basketball, where that sport's stats will more easily hold across conferences and divisions.

But that won't stop CFB simulations from the likes of GameSim and others. By the way, NCAA 14 last year failed to predict Florida State's title in 10 simulated seasons, didn't even peg FSU as the ACC champion and predicted USC would win the Pac-12.

Maybe it's a good idea to keep playing the games out on the gridiron.

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