WSU was 10-3 against the spread in ‘15, according to Vegas Insider. Only three other teams in college football reached double digits against the spread, all going 10-4 (Bowling Green, Southern Miss., Stanford).
Pac-12 teams ATS in 2015
Washington State 10-3
Oregon State 3-9
FOR THE 2016 SEASON, South Point sportsbook puts WSU’s over/under at 7.5 wins. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, notable over/under items include UW with 9, ASU at just 5, and Colorado with a higher over/under (4.5) than Cal (4).
Here’s South Point’s over/under for 2016 in the Pac-12:
Washington State: 7.5
Oregon State: 3.5
KUsports.com did an interview with South Point bookmaker Chris Andrews to find out how he determined the over/under. Andrews used 16 data points including experience, strength of schedule, various offensive and defensive statistics and coaching changes. Also included were obscure stats such as how well a team gets early first downs, plus game simulations.
One of the biggest factors for Andrews: offensive line play. He studies the stats to see which programs field quality offensive lines and also gives considerable weight to the number of returning linemen.
“It’s not a pure math model,” Andrews said in the article. “But it’s become about as scientific as it can get it. But that tells you about the past more than the future. So I also follow all the things that go into college football — kids graduate, changes on the staff, recruits come in — and I try to follow that as close as possible. But that’s where you kind of lose the science of it, and you have to make more objective judgements.”