Crunching the Numbers: 1/23/2012

Now that Washington is nearly done with their official visits and next year's Signing Day is the first Wednesday of February, it's time to update how the numbers crunch out for 2013. We first looked at this back at the end of October and things have definitely changed since then.

How many scholarship players return, how many depart, and what number of signees will Steve Sarkisian and the UW staff have to work with in February?
Scholarship Breakdown - Offense:
QB - 5
RB - 7
FB - 2
TE - 4
WR - 9
OL - 13
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Total - 40


Right now, there will be more returning defensive linemen than offensive linemen - and that should never happen. That's why the Huskies will most likely try and sign another class in numbers like they did last year. By the fall of 2013 they should now have five quarterbacks on scholarship, the first time I can remember that being the case in a very long time. There's enough numbers at running back where one or more could be moved to fullback, depending on how much Sarkisian plans on using that spot.
Quarterback (5):
17 Keith Price - Sr.
18 Erik Wilson - Sr. walk-on
6 Derrick Brown - So.
14 Thomas Vincent - So. walk-on
10 Cyler Miles - RFr.
5 Jeff Lindquist - RFr.
Troy Williams - Fr.


Departing Players: 0

Anticipated Attrition: 1

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 0
Running Back (7):
25 Bishop Sankey - Jr.
24 Jesse Callier - Jr.
32 Deontae Cooper - Jr.
23 Kendyl Taylor - So.
20 Erich Wilson - So.
34 Dezden Petty - So.
31 Ryan McDaniel - RFr.


Departing Players: 0

Anticipated Attrition: 2

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 1 (Lavon Coleman)
Fullback (2):
28 Psalm Wooching - RFr.
43 Cooper Pelluer - Jr.


Departing Players: 2 (Jonathan Amosa, Cole Sager)

Anticipated Attrition: 1

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 0
Tight End (4):
88 Austin Seferian-Jenkins - Jr.
84 Michael Hartvigson - Jr.
80 Evan Hudson - Jr.
89 Alec Kimble - Jr. walk-on
82 Joshua Perkins - So.


Departing Players: 0

Anticipated Attrition: 1

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 1 (David Ajamu)
Receiver (9):
8 Kevin Smith - Sr.
3 James Johnson - Sr.
15 Antavius Sims - Sr.
27 William Chandler - Sr. walk-on
2 Kasen Williams - Jr.
19 DiAndre Campbell - Jr.
4 Jaydon Mickens - So.
16 Marvin Hall - So.
11 Jamaal Jones - So.
12 Dwayne Washington - RFr.


Departing Players: 1 (Cody Bruns)

Anticipated Attrition: 2

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 3 (Demorea Stringfellow, Darrell Daniels, John Ross)
Offensive Line (13):
64 Colin Tanigawa - Jr.
72 Micah Hatchie - Jr.
78 Michael Criste - Jr.
75 Erik Kohler - Jr.
59 Ben Riva - Jr.
70 James Atoe - Jr.
76 Dexter Charles - So.
60 Shane Brostek - So.
65 Siosifa Tufunga - So.
62 Ross Dolbec - So. walk-on
61 Ben Teichman - So. walk-on
74 Nathan Dean - RFr.
52 Jake Eldrenkamp - RFr.
69 Cory Fuavai - RFr.
63 Taylor Hindy - RFr.
67 Michael Kneip - RFr. walk-on


Departing Players: 1 (73 Drew Schaefer)

Anticipated Attrition: 3

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 3 (Andrew Kirkland, Dane Crane)
Scholarship Breakdown - Defense/Specialists:
DL - 14
LB - 9
CB - 7
Safety - 3
P/K - 2
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Total - 35


The only real major imbalance just looking at how the numbers play out is in the secondary. With a move of a number of safeties in the fall to linebacker, that has really shorted the safety depth. It's possible players like Travell Dixon or Brandon Beaver or Cleveland Wallace could move to safety to help shore up the position, so whichever players they decide to sign could be athletes that start out at safety but could move up closer to the line of scrimmage like Travis Feeney and Shaq Thompson. Attrition has to be expected on the defensive line and probably the linebacker position too for the staff to go after better athletes. Don't expect UW to go after any more specialists now that local kicking star Cameron Van Winkle has pledged. A lot of fans will think having three specialists on scholarship is one more than needed, but as we saw with the Oregon State game with Travis Coons and Erik Folk before him, a solid specialist can be the difference when it comes to margin of victory.
Defensive Line (14):
55 Sione Potoae - Sr.
99 Josh Banks - Sr.
71 Danny Shelton - Jr.
93 Andrew Hudson - Jr.
22 Josh Shirley - Jr.
52 Hauoli Jamora - Jr.
97 Lawrence Lagafuaina - Jr.
57 Drew Schultz - Jr. walk-on
44 Pio Vatuvei - So.
42 Cory Littleton - So.
91 Connor Cree - So.
45 Corey Waller - So.
95 Jarett Finau - So.
90 Taniela Tupou - So.
66 Damion Turpin - RFr.


Departing Players: 3 (Semisi Tokolahi, Talia Crichton)

Anticipated Attrition: 3

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 6 (Jaimie Bryant, Andrew Basham, Daeshon Hall, Marcus Farria, Elijah Qualls, Joe Mathis)
Linebacker (9):
50 Thomas Tutogi - Sr.
14 Taz Stevenson - Sr.
37 Princeton Fuimaono - Sr.
40 Stetson Shearer - Sr. walk-on
10 John Timu - Jr.
58 Jamaal Kearse - Jr.
41 Travis Feeney - So.
7 Shaq Thompson - So.
47 Scott Lawyer - So.
30 Evan Zeger - So.


Departing Players: 2 (Nate Fellner, Blake Rodgers)

Anticipated Attrition: 2

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 4 (Sean Constantine, Connor O'Brien, Azeem Victor)
Cornerback (7):
18 Greg Ducre - Sr.
32 Tre Watson - Sr.
12 Travell Dixon - Jr.
21 Marcus Peters - So.
9 Brandon Beaver - RFr.
3 Cleveland Wallace - RFr.
35 Darien Washington - RFr.


Departing Players: 1 (Desmond Trufant, Adam Long)

Anticipated Attrition: 1

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 2 (Jermaine Kelly, Kevin King)
Safety (3):
1 Sean Parker - Sr.
13 Will Shamburger - Sr.
39 Ken Egu - Jr. walk-on
Trevor Walker - Fr.


Departing Players: 3 (Justin Glenn, Anthony Gobern, James Sample)

Anticipated Attrition: 0

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 1
Punter (2):
46 Travis Coons - Sr.
46 Korey Durkee - So.


Departing Players: 0

Anticipated Attrition: 0

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 0
Kicker (2):
46 Travis Coons - Sr.
46 Korey Durkee - So.
96 Santiago Lopez - RFr. walk-on


Departing Players: 0

Anticipated Attrition: 0

Expected Number (Currently Committed): 1 (Cameron Van Winkle)
Overall Analysis:
Using educated guesses for the attrition numbers, I came up with a higher number than last year. After the 2012 season, here are the 2011 players on scholarship no longer at UW that had eligibility: Garret Gilliland, Luther Leonard, Matthew Lyons, Nick Montana, Chris Polk, Colin Porter, Tim Tucker and Greg Walker.

Right now Washington is right at their limit of 85 scholarships used with the inclusion of Troy Williams and Trevor Walker. There are 11 2012 seniors (including walk-ons), leaving 74 returning for 2013. I expect there could be as many as 17 players currently on roster that are not available for 2013 due to attrition, which is an incredibly high number. That's 20 percent of the roster! The reasons why could be various - retirement (as was the case with Colin Porter), transfer, have finished their degrees (as in the case of Greg Walker), etc…

So when you take the 11 scholarships available through graduation and then add up to 14 more through attrition, and you have a full 2013 signing class of 25 players, plus the 3-4 players that will be enrolling early (Williams, Walker, Van Winkle, etc…). I think that's a fair number, but it could certainly fluctuate by one or two depending on more or less attrition.

So here's how I think the signing numbers could break down by position (given the three expected early enrollees are signed back to the 2012 class):

QB - 0
RB - 1
TE - 1
WR - 3
OL - 3
DL - 6
LB - 4
CB - 2
Safety - 1
P/PK - 1
------------------
Total - 22

Add the three early enrollees, and you're at 25 total commitments for the 2013 class.
Here's where the numbers get tricky. Right now Washington stands at 21 verbal commitments - but in reading Scott Eklund's most recent recruiting blog the Huskies are still in on a fair number of recruits.

To extend the hypothetical, Washington has four more scholarships to give under the current 21 number for the 2013 class. Eklund has (which I agree with) Patrick Enewally and Nico Falah as players favored to sign with UW on signing day. That leaves two more spots available.

Here's a list of currently uncommitted players that have either officially visited Washington or may visit in January or early February that we know of: DT Eddie Vanderdoes, LB Tyrell Robinson, ATH Tyree Robinson, LB Reuben Foster, DT Maurice Swain, DT Joe Sanders, DE Kylie Fitts, RB Thomas Tyner, LB Keishawn Bierria, and LB Myles Jack. This group may grow.

That's an impressive list of players still out there! Based on what we've been able to determine - Vanderdoes, the Robinson twins, Fitts and Jack are the most realistic possibilities given how Washington has recruited them to date. That's five prospects UW would take in a heartbeat if they wanted to come to Montlake.

That's seven more than the 25 limit would allow for 2013, which means there would also have to be massive attrition in the current list of committed players. Whether that means they move on to sign with different schools, wash out due to academic issues, delay enrollment to count against the 2014 class, etc… this means you could see a genuine reworking of an already big class by the time signing day approaches.

Obviously that all has to do with a very big presumption - that UW can land all these 'king salmon', as Steve Sarkisian would say. That means throwing some pretty darn good guppies back in the ocean.

It will be a very entertaining run to signing day, that's for sure. And with only two weeks to go it's going to be one wild ride. They won't sign everyone they want, but if they can get one or two players to turn in their direction it will be a huge payoff. Not only will the talent continue to get better and better in the short term, but it'll also pay off in recruiting visibility in the future as Washington pushes harder for top players.


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