Crunching the Numbers: 1/22/2014

Now that the Washington Huskies have won nine games for the first time since 2000, it's time to look forward to 2014 and see exactly what new Head Coach Chris Petersen has to work with. There's no question Steve Sarkisian left Washington in a much better place than how he found it, and talent is found at nearly every position. How does it all break down? Here's how we see it.

Wednesday will be two weeks to Signing Day. Is it possible Petersen could continue to recruit after that day to ensure he picks up the balance and quality of class he wants? Of course, but that kind of quality is typically not around after the first day of the signing period. It's been at least an 18-month recruiting siege for the student-athletes involved - and in many cases longer than that! - and they are more eager to sign than the coaches.

But as of today, this is how the class should break down, and I put 'should' in italics because if there was a way to put it in pencil I would. Things in recruiting at this stage of the process change by the day, and often by the hour, so take all of the information provided before as simply a snapshot of things as they stand. Tomorrow is a different day.
Scholarship Breakdown - Offense (projected # of 2014 signees in parenthesis):
QB - 3 (1)
RB - 5 (1)
FB - 2 (0)
TE - 4 (2)
WR - 6 (2)
OL - 14 (4)
Total - 34 (10)

Quarterback (3):
10 Cyler Miles - So.
5 Jeff Lindquist - So.
Troy Williams - RFr.

Departing Players: 1 (Keith Price)

Projected # of Signees: 1 (none currently committed)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Jalen Greene (12/14/2013), K.J. Carta-Samuels (1/17), Aaron Sharp (1/24)

Synopsis: Looks like the Huskies have their money all-in on Carta-Samuels, who de-committed from Vanderbilt when James Franklin took the Penn State job. Greene has already signed with USC, and while it appears Sharp still plans on visiting Washington this weekend he just verbally committed to UCLA.
Running Back (5):
24 Jesse Callier - Sr.
32 Deontae Cooper - Sr.
12 Dwayne Washington - So.
31 Ryan McDaniel - So. 22 Lavon Coleman - RFr. Nick Zelle - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 1 (Bishop Sankey)

Projected # of Signees: 1 (none currently committed)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Joe Mixon (9/27/13), Jomon Dotson (1/17), Tre Watson (1/24), Kalen Ballage (1/24), Demario Richard (1/31), Rashaad Penny (1/31)

Synopsis: Plenty of options here, and with Sankey off to the NFL Draft it's time to replace him with the next star. Mixon is off to Oklahoma, and Dotson will choose between the Huskies and Colorado. Watson, Ballage, Richard and Penny are scheduled to visit in the last two recruiting weekends. Richard will be hard to prize away from Arizona State, and Ballage has a number of top schools looking his way.
Fullback (2):
18 Derrick Brown - Jr.
28 Psalm Wooching - So.
35 Ralph Kinne - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 0

Projected # of Signees: 0

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): None

Synopsis: Not much to talk about here. Wooching will be the fullback to start out for Petersen, and we'll see what happens to this position the closer we get to the 2014 season. Coach Pete may nuke it altogether and use the players here as H-Backs or other bigger running backs for short yardage, goal-line, etc...
Tight End (4):
84 Michael Hartvigson - Sr.
82 Joshua Perkins - So.
15 Darrell Daniels - So.
85 David Ajamu - RFr.

Departing Players: 1 (Austin Seferian-Jenkins)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (Committed: Chase Blakley, Drew Sample)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Drew Sample (1/17), Chase Blakley (1/24)

Synopsis: Recruiting here is done. With ASJ gone UW was going to replace him with at least one player, and they've received two commitments from Sample and Blakley. That means the position will be legitimately six-deep come fall, unless there's some movement in spring - players moved to other positions, etc...
Receiver (6):
2 Kasen Williams - Sr.
4 Jaydon Mickens - Jr.
16 Marvin Hall - Jr.
23 Kendyl Taylor - Jr.
9 Damoree'a Strinfellow - So.
11 John Ross - So.
86 Taelon Parson - RFr. walk-on
83 Neel Salukhe - RFr. walk-on
81 Wesley Salyer - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 3 (Kevin Smith, DiAndre Campbell, Antavius Sims)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (none currently committed)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Rahshead Johnson (8/30/13), Dante Pettis (1/17), Donyeh Patterson (1/31)

Synopsis: Hearing that Taylor has moved over to safety while he redshirts; obviously we'll know Petersen's plans for the redshirt sophomore once camp convenes in the spring. That would add one more to the departed list, meaning the Huskies need to land a couple more outstanding receivers to keep things moving and the numbers balanced. Long-time commit Rahshead Johnson de-committed from UW after Sarkisian left, and now he'll sign for USC. Pettis and Patterson appear to be the two on the radar, but I would expect at least one more receiver visit before signing day.
Offensive Line (14):
64 Colin Tanigawa - Sr.
72 Micah Hatchie - Sr.
78 Michael Criste - Sr.
59 Ben Riva - Sr.
70 James Atoe - Sr.
76 Dexter Charles - Jr.
60 Shane Brostek - Jr.
65 Siosifa Tufunga - Jr.
62 Ross Dolbec - Jr. walk-on
52 Jake Eldrenkamp - So.
69 Cory Fuavai - So.
63 Taylor Hindy - So.
67 Michael Kneip - So. walk-on
55 Dane Crane - RFr.
73 Andrew Kirkland - RFr.
79 Coleman Shelton - RFr.

Departing Players: 1 (Erik Kohler)

Projected # of Signees: 4 (Committed: Matt James, John Turner, Jesse Sosebee)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Layth Friekh (10/12/13), Andrew Mike (11/29/13), Jesse Sosebee (1/17), Matt James (1/24), Kammy Delp (1/31), John Turner (1/31)

Synopsis: Kohler's retirement means there's one more spot that just opened up. I would expect Petersen to go like-for-like here and use Kohler's scholarship on a big body. With three already in the boat (Sosebee was a former BSU commit who just committed to UW Tuesday night), finishing the class off with a player like Kammy Delp would be a coup. Friekh (Arizona) is already committed, and UW seems to be falling out of the Mike sweepstakes. One name to remember: JC OL Miguel Machado. The 6-foot-6, 285-pound OL from Pasadena City College is currently committed to Washington State but has said via Twitter he plans on visiting UW before signing day. No date has been set, to our knowledge.
Scholarship Breakdown - Defense/Specialists (projected # of 2014 signees in parenthesis):
DL - 11 (5)
LB - 9 (1)
CB - 4 (2)
Safety - 3 (3)
P/K - 2 (1)
Total - 29 (12)

Defensive Line (11):
71 Danny Shelton - Sr.
80 Evan Hudson - Sr.
22 Josh Shirley - Sr.
52 Hauoli Kikaha - Sr.
97 Lawrence Lagafuaina - Sr.
57 Drew Schultz - Sr. walk-on
95 Jarett Finau - Jr.
90 Taniela Tupou - Jr.
66 Damion Turpin - So.
5 Joe Mathis - So.
23 Marcus Farria - So.
11 Elijah Qualls - RFr.

Departing Players: 5 (Sione Potoae, Josh Banks, Andrew Hudson, Connor Cree, Pio Vatuvei)

Projected # of Signees: 5 (Jaimie Bryant, Greg Gaines, Shane Bowman)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Claude Pelon (10/11/13), Greg Gaines (1/17), Jaylen Johnson (1/17), Shane Bowman (1/17), Kalani Vakameilalo (1/17), Kaleb McGary (1/24), Will Dissly (1/24), Malik Dorton (1/31)

Synopsis: This is another position where things seem to have been sorted out but there's still a couple of questions that need to be answered. With Bryant, Gaines, and Bowman in the boat, there seems to be room for at least one more player at this position. Pelon is expected to sign with USC, although he hasn't enrolled yet. Johnson and Vakameilalo just visited UW and McGary and Dorton still have visits planned. McGary is the big in-state need, and one has to think he's got an offer through signing day no matter what. Johnson was previously committed to BSU, so you have to think the current UW staff stand a great chance of landing him too. Another name to remember is BSU commit Dissly from Bozeman, Montana. Dissly has talked to the UW coaches and UW was a 'goal' school of his once he knew he would be recruited as a football player.
Linebacker (9):
10 John Timu - Sr.
42 Cory Littleton - Jr.
41 Travis Feeney - Jr.
7 Shaq Thompson - Jr.
47 Scott Lawyer - Jr.
25 Keishawn Bierria - RFr.
34 Sean Constantine - RFr.
29 Connor O'Brien - RFr.
36 Azeem Victor - RFr.
53 Eric Rauch - RFr. walk-on
54 Ronnie Espedal - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 3 (Princeton Fuimaono, Thomas Tutogi, Jamaal Kearse)

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: Drew Lewis)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Michael Lazarus (11/29/13), Fred Warner (1/17), Drew Lewis (1/24), Aisea Tongilava (1/24), Koa Farmer (1/31)

Synopsis: This position is pretty stacked, and Lewis would simply add more quality depth to the position. He recently took a trip to USC, but it's unclear whether or not the old UW staff that's now in LA are going to have enough scholarships to offer Lewis one. If they do, he could very well end up a Trojan. With Warner having already visited UW and Tongilava and Farmer both coming to Montlake on trips, Lewis's spot could be up for grabs.
Cornerback (4):
12 Travell Dixon - Sr.
21 Marcus Peters - Jr.
6 Jermaine Kelly - RFr.
30 Patrick Enewally - RFr.
38 Kyle Nelson - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 2 (Greg Ducre, Cleveland Wallace)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (Committed: Brandon Lewis)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Brandon Lewis (1/24)

Synopsis: UW is in need of more true cover corners, and although they already have a good one committed in Lewis, they aren't done at all. They don't have anyone currently set up on trips, but expect Jimmy Lake to scour the west coast to coax some top talent to Montlake on a trip with the hopes of immediate playing time. Because there is playing time to be had at this position.
Safety (3):
39 Thomas Vincent - Jr. walk-on
35 Brian Clay - Jr. walk-on
9 Brandon Beaver - So.
27 Trevor Walker - So.
20 Kevin King - So.
43 Caleb Taylor - RFr. walk-on

Departing Players: 4 (Sean Parker, Will Shamburger, Taz Stevenson, Tre Watson)

Projected # of Signees: 3 (Committed: Jojo McIntosh, Darren Gardenhire, Lavon Washington)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Budda Baker (1/17), Khalil Oliver (1/17), Darren Gardenhire (1/17), Lavon Washington (1/17), JoJo McIntosh (1/31)

Synopsis: With three projected signees and three committed and ready to sign on the dotted line, you'd think this position is dead and buried as far as UW looking for more safeties. You'd be wrong. Budda Baker is right at the top of the Huskies' wish list, and he just took an official visit to UW after de-committing from Oregon. He'll trip to UCLA and then decide. Like McGary, there's no Chance Baker's offer to UW goes away due to a numbers crunch; he'll have a scholarship anytime he wants it. To be honest, the same could be said for Oliver too, who looks to be the kind of player that might move up into an outside linebacker role ala Drew Lewis.
Punter (1):
46 Korey Durkee - So.

Departing Players: 2 (Travis Coons, Zach Grossnickle)

Projected # of Signees: 0

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): None
Kicker (1):
48 Cameron Van Winkle - So.

Departing Players: 1 (Travis Coons)

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Tristan Vizcaino)

Prospects Officially Visiting (Visit Date in Parentheses): Tristan Vizcaino (1/17)

Synopsis: I'll cover the punting and kicking spots here at one time, because that's what the new UW staff has done by securing the commitment of Tristan Vizcaino, who had been committed to Washington State. They've asked him to do all three kicking jobs (kickoffs, punts, FG/PAT's) just like Travis Coons did. So special teams went from a major worry two weeks ago to settled.
Overall Analysis:
Getting to 85: With 34 scholarships on offense and 29 on defense, the program is currently at 63 scholarships. That means as the numbers stand heading into the new year, new UW Head Coach Chris Petersen will have a minimum of 22 scholarships to work with to get to the maximum number of 85 scholarships. To recap: Washington can have 85 scholarshipped players at any point in time, and a maximum of 25 players enrolled in any one class. The 25 number won't be reached for 2014 without some major attrition, and there's always the school of thought that a new coach will work to simply salvage that first class, while work hard to make in-roads for their first 'true' recruiting class as a complete staff.

Defensive lineman Jaimie Bryant is still set on enrolling in the spring, so that takes the number to at least 21 when looking at the numbers for 2014 - assuming they reach the 85 number for this upcoming season.

The Huskies already have one commitment for 2015 - Trey Adams - and UW fans should expect the likely re-commit of Marysville-Pilchuck RB Austin Joyner - who de-committed from Washington when Sarkisian left for USC. Add to that the possible re-commitment of DT Jacob Daniel, who also de-committed after Sarkisian left, and UW is already off to a solid start for the next recruiting class, especially in-state.

What Might Impact The Total Number: Clearly there's a number of things that could affect the total number Petersen has to work with when it's all said and done. The beautiful part of Petersen's situation is that he doesn't have to scramble to replace a ton of immediate needs; Steve Sarkisian and his assistants kept the cupboard really full of talent - the only glaring needs that need be addressed right away would be in the secondary and at specialist. Other than that, it's hard to think of players coming in for the 2014 class that would need to come in and fill a hole and be an immediate difference-maker.

There is one piece to the puzzle that has been taken care of since the last time we crunched the numbers on New Year's Eve - draft-eligible players. Austin Seferian-Jenkins announced right after the Fight Hunger Bowl Friday that he would be turning pro; Bishop Sankey did the same right after I published the last Crunching the Numbers story. Danny Shelton is the only other Husky that could conceivably jump to the NFL right now even though he still has a year of eligibility at UW remaining. Shelton has made no secret of his desire to come back for his senior season, which is huge for a defensive line poised for even bigger and better things coming off a massive 2013 campaign.

Secondly - there's always going to be attrition in a coaching change. Taz Stevenson, Jamaal Kearse, Andrew Hudson and DiAndre Campbell are all seniors academically that had eligibility remaining, yet ran with the seniors in the 2013 Apple Cup - so they had made the decision to leave regardless of who was going to be at UW next season. Cleveland Wallace has already transferred to San Jose State. Erik Kohler recently retired from the game due to injuries. Could there be more? It may not happen right away; players may decide after they get a chance to talk to Petersen in the off-season and they assess their future, or they may leave after spring ball when they get a clearer picture of just where they stand in the depth chart.

If they see the writing on the wall, they could leave at any time. The harder question is to guestimate just how much attrition there will be.

Since we are operating from a number of 21 scholarships for 2014 assuming Bryant enrolls in the spring as he says he is, it would only take a couple more to leave to give Petersen near a full class to begin recruiting 'Our Kinda Guys' to Montlake. Twenty-one prospects is pretty close to the same number of players Sarkisian signed in his first class at Washington. Sark signed 19 players for the 2009 class, and six of them became regular or significant contributors - Keith Price, Desmond Trufant, James Johnson, Will Mahan, Will Shamburger, and Nate Fellner.

Position Switches Can Impact Balance: It was talked about via Twitter that Kendyl Taylor switched mid-season to defense. We have him listed currently at WR (per gohuskies), but if he moves to safety, for instance - that could certainly impact the number of DB's Petersen takes. He already has three committed players (Lavon Washington, JoJo McIntosh, and Darren Gardenhire), while another - Drew Lewis - is projected as a linebacker. With UW losing six defensive backs after the 2013 season (Sean Parker, Will Shamburger, Taz Stevenson, Tre Watson, Greg Ducre, Cleveland Wallace), filling those spots as quickly as possible is paramount.

And vise-versa; if Taylor stays at WR, that might take one receiver spot from this class to make sure the Huskies take the number they need for the secondary.

Obviously if Jaimie Bryant enrolls as expected, he would bump that projected defensive line number by one, meaning since we're projecting three signees, that number would go to two. And if Petersen targets players like Kaleb McGary, Shane Bowman, and Greg Gaines, for instance, and gets them to sign - job done. Gaines and Shane Bowman are already committed.

Tight end is going to be another position where there are some bodies currently on the roster that could maybe end up just considered bigger receivers in Petersen's offense - Darrell Daniels and Joshua Perkins the two obvious names. That would mean guys like Chase Blakley and Drew Sample would slot right in as bigger, truer all-around tight ends.

To view UW's current commit list, click HERE

To view UW's current list of official visits, click HERE

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