Crunching the Numbers: 6/19/2015

With only 10 days before prospects signed for Washington’s 2015 recruiting class show up for UW’s LEAP (Learn Experience Achieve Program), it’s time to once again crunch the numbers and see where the Huskies are as they start to hone in on their top targets for the 2016 recruiting class.

As of today, this is how the class should break down, providing every signee enrolls as they should. We are not aware of any academic issues to date, but until they show up on campus and start taking classes, things could change. And as we’ve seen with new quarterback and receiver additions, this coaching staff is always on the lookout for talent.
Scholarship Breakdown - Offense (projected # of 2016 signees in parenthesis):
QB - 5 (1)
RB - 5 (1)
WR - 10 (3)
TE - 4 (1)
OL - 17 (2)
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Total - 41 (8)
Quarterback (5):
10 Cyler Miles - Jr.
5 Jeff Lindquist - Jr.
Tony Rodriguez - So.
11 K.J. Carta-Samuels - RFr.
3 Jake Browning - Fr.


Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: None)

Prospects With Offers (4): Jacob Eason (Committed to Georgia), Matt Fink (Committed to USC), Max Gilliam (Committed to Cal), Dillon Sterling-Cole

Synopsis: With the recent signing of Tony Rodriguez from City College of San Francisco, I think it’s safe to say that Cyler Miles’ days are numbered at Washington, but until we get official word from the school we have to keep him listed here. But for all practical purposes, Rodriguez is going to take Miles’ scholarship, so the actual total will be four quarterbacks for this coming fall. That still means UW needs to sign a 2016 quarterback, and at this point they’ve struck out with the ones they’ve offered. But it’s a long process, which means one of them could come back into the frame before signing day.
Running Back (5):
32 Deontae Cooper - Sr.
12 Dwayne Washington - Jr.
22 Lavon Coleman - So.
40 Ralph Kinne - So. walk-on
34 Jomon Dotson - RFr.
30 Gavin McDaniel - RFr. walk-on
Myles Gaskin - Fr.


Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: Sean McGrew)

Prospects With Offers (10): Sean McGrew (Committed to UW), Vavae Malapeai (Committed to Oregon), Beau Bisharat (Committed to Stanford), Alexander Mattison, Brandon Stephens, Romelo Harris, Chase Jasmin, Aubrey White, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Chase Lucas

Synopsis: The running back spot is a bit trickier than normal because of Deontae Cooper. Cooper has eligibility remaining after 2015, but will he stick around? If he has a halfway decent season, there’s a chance he could get picked up as a free agent at worst after the 2016 NFL Draft. His status is really up in the air after this coming year, so while it’s conceivable the Huskies only sign one back for next year, they could very easily go for two if Cooper decides he’s done what he can at UW. And they could go for two anyway if there’s room, but it’s still an unknown that could dictate a numbers change here. If the Huskies have room to add another running back for 2016, expect them to go after a bigger back because current commit Sean McGrew is more of a scat back, all-purpose type whose blazing speed is his weapon.
Receiver (10):
4 Jaydon Mickens - Sr.
16 Marvin Hall - Sr.
1 John Ross - Jr.
Nik Little - Jr.
87 Dante Pettis - So.
81 Brayden Lenius - So.
Connor Griffin - So. walk-on
86 Taelon Parson - So. walk-on
83 Neel Salukhe - So. walk-on
80 Max Richmond - RFr. walk-on
89 John Gardner - RFr. walk-on
23 Drew Before - RFr. walk-on
Isaiah Renfro - Fr.
Andre Baccellia - Fr.
Chico McClatcher - Fr.
Quinten Pounds - Fr.


Departing Players: 2 (Jaydon Mickens, Marvin Hall)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (Committed: None)

Prospects With Offers (30): Theo Howard (Committed to Oregon), Dee Anderson (Committed to LSU), Zarrian Holcombe (Committed to TAMU), Donte Coleman (Committed to Texas Tech), Deriq King (Committed to TCU), Dymond Lee (Committed to UCLA), Demetric Felton (Committed to UCLA), Chris Taylor-Yamanoha (Committed to Louisville), Melquise Stovall (Committed to USC), Joshua Hammond (Committed to Florida), Drew Kobayashi (Committed to Cal), Darian Owens (Committed to UCLA), Michael Pittman, Tyler Vaughns, Devin Duvernay, Javon McKinley, Dylan Crawford, N’Keal Harry, Damian Alloway, Steffon McKnight, Simi Fehoko, Adewale Omotosho, Zach Farrar, Kofi Boateng, Khris Vaughn, Chase Claypool, Tayler Hawkins, Jack Jones, Trevon Sidney, DeVaughn Cooper

Synopsis: John Ross is unavailable for 2015, but is important from a numbers standpoint for next year because he’ll be redshirting. That means he will still be just a junior with two years of eligibility remaining. Juco newcomer Nik Little could also redshirt, giving him two years of eligibility left starting in 2016, but the Huskies don’t have the luxury of redshirting the 6-foot-5 Little. They need big receivers, and he fits the bill right away. With six walk-ons and four true freshmen showing up for fall camp, there’s no shortage of bodies in 2015 but I still expect UW to sign two receivers for 2016 for two reasons: 1) the talent pool out west is incredible; 2) filling the rides left when Jaydon Mickens and Marvin Hall graduate. It’s a straight numbers for numbers swap, as they would like to normally do for balance.
Tight End (4):
82 Joshua Perkins - Sr.
15 Darrell Daniels - Jr.
85 David Ajamu - So.
88 Drew Sample - RFr.
Mike Neal - Fr.


Departing Players: 1 (Joshua Perkins)

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: None)

Prospects With Offers (4): Cam McCormick (Committed to Oregon), Devin Asiasi, Jacob Kizer, Corey Rau

Synopsis: With tight end, Jordan Paopao is the lone coaching holdover from Steve Sarkisian to Chris Petersen, so he’s had his hands all over the class balance and recruiting the position for the last few years. So it stands to reason this is the one position on the team that has perfect attrition and balance going for it. One out, one in. So in the case of 2016, Joshua Perkins graduates after this coming year, and Mike Neal comes in as the freshman to move up the pecking order. That will leave Darrell Daniels as the 2016 season, which means UW will want to sign one tight end to continue the one-for-one swap they have going.
Offensive Line (17):
76 Dexter Charles - Sr.
65 Siosifa Tufunga - Sr.
60 Shane Brostek - Jr.
52 Jake Eldrenkamp - Jr.
69 Cory Fuavai - Jr.
67 Michael Kneip - Jr. walk-on
79 Coleman Shelton - So.
55 Dane Crane - So.
73 Andrew Kirkland - So.
58 Kaleb McGary - RFr.
75 Jesse Sosebee - RFr.
74 John Turner - RFr.
71 Matt James - RFr.
77 Devin Burleson - Fr.
Trey Adams - Fr.
Henry Roberts - Fr.
Jared Hilbers - Fr.


Departing Players: 2 (Dexter Charles, Siosifa Tufunga)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (Committed: Luke Wattenberg)

Prospects With Offers (11): Luke Wattenberg (Committed to UW), Greg Little (Committed to TAMU), Jonah Williams (Committed to Alabama), Jacob Capra (Committed to Oregon), Chris Owens (Committed to Alabama), Frank Martin (Committed to USC), Tope Imade (Committed to Texas), Denzel Okafor, Michael Eletise, Mike Alves, Clarence Henderson

Synopsis: 2016 is not a great year out west for recruiting offensive linemen, so even though the Huskies will want to do a straight two-for-two swap to replace Dexter Charles and Siosifa Tufunga when they graduate, they won’t go beyond two linemen unless they can go big on quality. 2017 is looking absolutely monstrous out west for OL, and especially in-state with Foster Sarell, Henry Bainivalu, Cody Kanouse, Dontae Powell, Brody McKnight, etc… and that’s the year Chris Strausser will want to load up on big bodies. But he’s got a good one committed for 2016 in Luke Wattenberg, and if he can convince Michael Eletise or Mike Alves to sign on the dotted line, his job will be done.
Scholarship Breakdown - Defense/Specialists (projected # of 2016 signees in parenthesis):
DL - 15 (2)
LB - 14 (3)
CB - 6 (1)
Safety - 6 (2)
P/K/Specialists - 5 (0)
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Total - 46 (8)

Defensive Line (15):
95 Jarett Finau - Sr.
90 Taniela Tupou - Sr.
66 Damion Turpin - Jr.
5 Joe Mathis - Jr.
11 Elijah Qualls - So.
98 Will Dissly - So.
50 Vita Vea - RFr.
96 Shane Bowman - RFr.
99 Greg Gaines - RFr.
92 Jaylen Johnson - RFr.
Jason Scrempos - Fr.
Myles Rice - Fr.
Ricky McCoy - Fr.
Bryce Sterk - Fr.
Benning Potoae - Fr.


Departing Players: 2 (Jarett Finau, Taniela Tupou)

Projected # of Signees: 2 (Committed: None)

Prospects With Offers (21): Breland Brandt (Committed to UCLA), Micheal Johnson (Committed to Houston), Liam Jimmons (Committed to USC), Jordan Elliott (Committed to Houston), Oluwole Betiku, Isaiah Chambers, Maxs Tupai, Carlo Kemp, Amandre Williams, Bronson Massie, Derriyon Shaw, Evan Weaver, Pookie Maka, Teton Saltes, Garrett Rand, Rashard Lawrence, Boss Tagaloa, Chris Daniels, Mike Williams, Joe Wallace, Levi Onwukurike

Synopsis: Washington loses two defensive linemen after the 2015 season, so it makes sense to sign two for 2016. With the Huskies having already offered two defensive linemen in-state (Amandre Williams and Evan Weaver), they could push hard for those guys and call it good. But they also have a need inside to account for Tupou’s graduation, so I suspect they are going to narrow their list down on their defensive tackles and make a great push to get one really good tackle in this class like they did last year with Ricky McCoy.
Linebacker (14):
41 Travis Feeney - Sr.
42 Cory Littleton - Sr.
47 Scott Lawyer - Sr.
28 Psalm Wooching - Jr.
25 Keishawn Bierria - So.
34 Sean Constantine - So.
29 Connor O'Brien - So.
36 Azeem Victor - So.
16 Drew Lewis - RFr.
53 Jake Wambaugh - RFr. walk-on
54 Matt Preston - RFr. walk-on
30 Kyler Manu - Fr.
D.J. Beavers - Fr.
Ben Burr-Kirven - Fr.
Jusstis Warren - Fr.
Tevis Bartlett - Fr.


Departing Players: 3 (Travis Feeney, Cory Littleton, Scott Lawyer)

Projected # of Signees: 3 (Committed: Brandon Wellington)

Prospects With Offers (17): Brandon Wellington (Committed to UW), Mique Juarez (Committed to USC), Curtis Robinson (Committed to Stanford), Clifton Lewis (Committed to TCU), Michael Badejo (Committed to SMU), Lokeni Toaliloa (Committed to UCLA), Krys Barnes (Committed to UCLA), Jordyn Brooks (Committed to Texas Tech), Paddy Fisher, Troy Cassidy, Deonte Williams, Darrian Franklin, Lamar Winston, Camilo Eifler, Caleb Kelly, Kevin Meitzenheimer, Dontavious Jackson

Synopsis: Again, could this be a like for like change in terms of numbers? Washington loses three senior linebackers but don’t have any juniors behind them - so that begs the question; with so many current sophomores is UW going to push hard this year and see what shakes out down the road? Or are they just going to go for a couple linebackers now and call it good? They already have Brandon Wellington in the fold and seem to be in the driver’s seat for Camilo Eifler, so will that be the class? I suspect with more odd front, Pete Kwiatkowski is going to be searching for more outside linebackers that can get upfield and fill. So I think he’ll push hard for one more bigger ‘backer - like a Lamar Winston, Troy Cassidy or Paddy Fisher to finish out this particular LB class.
Cornerback (6):
20 Kevin King - Jr.
26 Sidney Jones - So.
31 Naijiel Hale - So.
3 Darren Gardenhire - So.
19 Brandon Lewis - RFr.
39 Sean Vergara - RFr. walk-on
Austin Joyner - Fr.
Jordan Miller - Fr.


Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: None)

Prospects With Offers (10): Jordan Parker (Committed to UCLA), Raleigh Texada (Committed to Baylor), Jalen Thompson (Committed to WSU), Byron Murphy, Isaiah Gilchrist, David Long, Obi Eboh, Treyjohn Butler, Kentrell Love, Myles Bryant

Synopsis: This position is very young, but talented. With Kevin King moving from safety starting in the fall, the Huskies will be even more talented. At this point there’s serviceable balance between classes, so getting at least one player here makes sense. There’s lots of good prospects available too, so Washington should be just fine with whoever they wind up with come February.
Safety (6):
35 Brian Clay - Sr.
9 Brandon Beaver - Jr.
27 Trevor Walker - Jr.
38 Hayden Schuh - Jr. walk-on
32 Budda Baker - So.
24 Ezekiel Turner - So.
14 Jojo McIntosh - RFr.


Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: 1 (Committed: Taylor Rapp)

Prospects With Offers (6): Taylor Rapp (Committed to UW), Brandon Burton, Lamar Jackson, Keyon Riley, Leni Toailoa, Marcus Strong

Synopsis: Washington could be done at safety. Sehome safety Taylor Rapp verbally committed back in March and he’s expected to enroll early in time for spring football next year, which will help the Huskies account for the spot available through Brian Clay’s graduation. Depending on how the numbers shake out post-season, they might try and add another body to this position group, but with Rapp enrolling early that helps the numbers a lot.
Punter (1):
45 Korey Durkee - Sr.


Departing Players: 1 (Korey Durkee)

Projected # of Signees: None

Prospects With Offers: None
Kicker (2):
48 Cameron Van Winkle - Jr.
43 Tristan Vizcaino - So.


Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: None

Prospects With Offers: None
Specialists (2):
46 Ryan Masel - Sr.
A.J. Carty - Fr.

Departing Players: None

Projected # of Signees: None

Prospects With Offers: None

Synopsis: The specialists are an interesting group in terms of numbers, because they can afford to not sign a kicker for 2016, but that means moving someone once punter Korey Durkee’s eligibility is complete after this upcoming season. Most likely this means shifting Tristan Vizcaino into that role and keeping Cameron Van Winkle as the primary placekicker. He has done some emergency punting, so I doubt this will be a huge switch for him. I suspect he would also remain as Washington’s kickoff specialist.
Overall Analysis:
Getting to 85: Right now, if every 2015 signee enrolls for the LEAP, it means the Huskies would be at 87, two above the allowable NCAA limit. But that number includes Cyler Miles’ scholarship and Tony Rodriguez’s scholarship. We’re not expecting Miles to return for the fall, so that would drop the Huskies one scholarship from where they need to be.

To get to that NCAA-mandated 85 number, we’ve also talked in the past how Washington could greyshirt one of their 2015 signees. It’s doubtful Myles Rice will be asked, since the coaches want to get him on campus and working with the strength and conditioning coaches as soon as possible to get his knee rehab on track. So most likely it would be long snapper AJ Carty who would be asked to delay enrollment if they are up against the number by one. When Carty committed, it was with the understanding that a greyshirt would happen, so it makes sense.

But assuming everyone enrolls for LEAP as expected and Miles doesn’t return, Washington will be at the 85 number for 2015 - barring any more last-second additions.

Position Switches Can Impact Balance: Obviously players roam from position to position - especially along the defensive front - so that can impact how the numbers shake out. Whether you call a BUCK a linebacker or a defensive end simply depends on the play at hand, for instance. And sometimes players make off-season changes, like John Ross back to offense and Kevin King from safety to cornerback - so you have to look at that took when taking into account the final number. And when recruiting athletes, as UW did last year with Quinten Pounds, you can bring them in undecided as to a final spot and then move them based on how things go and where they look the most comfortable.


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