Breaking Down The Numbers - 1/11/16

With less than a month to the first day of the 2016 Recruiting Signing Period in February, it’s important to go back to what the Washington Huskies currently have, what they are expecting to have in the fall, and what needs they can still fill with their remaining scholarships.

Remember, the overall number of 85 scholarship players on the team is the important number to look for right now; the 25 number per recruiting cycle isn’t going to matter for the 2016 class because they’ll never come close to reaching that number. Washington has too many current first and second-year players to change that number significantly.

Here’s how the 2016 Washington Football team breaks down, position-by-position as it stands right now if all 2016 current commits sign (number of scholarship players per position in all capitals): 

2016

Offense

Quarterback (FIVE)

Jake Browning (6-2, 205, So.)
K.J. Carta-Samuels (6-2, 219, So.) OR
Jeff Lindquist (6-3, 244, Sr.)
Tony Rodriguez (6-3, 185, Jr.)
Daniel Bridge-Gadd (6-2, 200, Fr.)


Running Back (FIVE)

Myles Gaskin (5-9, 192, So.)
Deontae Cooper (5-11, 200, Sr.) OR
Lavon Coleman (5-11, 222, Jr.)
Jomon Dotson (5-10, 174, So.)
Sean McGrew (5-7, 175, Fr.)


Receiver (NINE)

John Ross III (5-11, 192, Jr.)
Chico McClatcher (5-8, 180, So.)
Andre Baccellia (5-9, 160, RFr.) OR

Brayden Lenius (6-5, 217, Jr.)
Isaiah Renfro (6-1, 185 So.)
Nik Little (6-4, 205, Jr.)

Dante Pettis (6-0, 183, Jr.)
Quinten Pounds (5-11, 170, RFr.)
Aaron Fuller (5-10, 175, Fr.)


Tight End (SIX)

Darrell Daniels (6-4, 230, Sr.)
Drew Sample (6-4, 245, So)
David Ajamu (6-5, 250, Jr.) OR
Will Dissly (6-4, 275, Jr.) OR
Connor Griffin (6-4, 235, Jr.)*
Mike Neal (6-4, 229, RS Fr.)
Jacob Kizer (6-5, 235, Fr.)


Offensive Line (FIFTEEN)

Left Tackle:
Trey Adams (6-8, 283, So.)
Matt James (6-4, 273, So.)
Luke Wattenberg (6-5, 275, Fr.)

Left Guard:
Jake Eldrenkamp (6-5, 298, Sr.)
Michael Kneip (6-5, 302, Sr.)*
Jared Hilbers (6-6, 287, RFr.)

Center:
Shane Brostek (6-4, 301, Sr.)
Dane Crane (6-3, 287, Jr.) OR
John Turner (6-3, 289, So.)
Nick Harris (6-1, 275, Fr.)

Right Guard:
Coleman Shelton (6-4, 282, Jr.)
Jesse Sosebee (6-5, 313, So.)
Henry Roberts (6-5, 287, RFr.)

Right Guard
Kaleb McGary (6-7, 292, So.) OR 
Andrew Kirkland (6-4, 300, Jr.)
Devin Burleson (6-7, 302, RFr.)


Defense

Defensive Line (assuming odd front in 3-4 defense) (ELEVEN)

Defensive End:
Joe Mathis (6-2, 249, Sr.)
Jaylen Johnson (6-2, 266, So.)
Bryce Sterk (6-4, 234, RFr.)

Nose Tackle:
Elijah Qualls (6-1, 305, Jr.)
Greg Gaines (6-1, 310, So.)
Vita Vea (6-4, 329, So.)
Ricky McCoy (6-2, 307, RFr.)

Defensive End:
Damion Turpin (6-4, 275, Sr.) OR
Shane Bowman (6-3, 267, So.)
Jason Scrempos (6-6, 280, RFr.)
Benning Potoa'e (6-3, 270, RFr.)


Linebacker (FOURTEEN)

BUCK:
Psalm Wooching (6-4, 228, Sr.)
Connor O'Brien (6-3, 238, Jr.)
Myles Rice (6-4, 225, Fr.)
Amandre Williams (6-3, 225, Fr.)

SAM (strong side):
Tevis Bartlett (6-2, 218, So.)
Kyler Manu (6-1, 224, RFr.) OR
D.J. Beavers (6-0, 202, RFr.)
Brandon Wellington (6-1, 205, Fr.)

MIK (middle) :
Azeem Victor (6-3, 239, Jr.)
Ben Burr-Kirven (6-0, 201, So.)
Jusstis Warren (6-1, 239, RFr.)

WIL (weak side) :
Keishawn Bierria (6-1, 223, Jr.)
Sean Constantine (6-2, 228, Jr.)
Camilo Eifler (6-2, 219. Fr.)


Defensive Back (FOURTEEN)

Cornerback:
Sidney Jones (6-0, 177, Jr.)
Brandon Lewis (5-10, 192, So.)
Austin Joyner (5-10, 186, RFr.)
Isaiah Gilchrist (5-10, 185, Fr.)

Safety:
Jojo McIntosh (6-0, 204, So.)
Ezekiel Turner (6-2, 204 Jr.)
Taylor Rapp (6-0, 195, Fr.)

Safety:
Budda Baker (5-10, 176, Jr.)
Brandon Beaver (6-0, 191, Sr.)
Trevor Walker (5-11, 182, Jr.)

Cornerback:
Darren Gardenhire (5-11, 181, Jr.) OR
Kevin King (6-3, 182, Sr.)
Jordan Miller (6-0, 163, So.)
Kentrell Love (6-2, 175, Fr.)


Special Teams (FOUR)

Punter:
Tristan Vizcaino (6-2, 205, Jr.)
Van Soderberg (6-0, 200, Fr.)

Placekicker:
Cameron Van Winkle (5-10, 181, Sr.)
Tristan Vizcaino (6-2, 205, Jr.)

Kickoff:
Tristan Vizcaino (6-2, 205, Jr.)

Kickoff Return:
John Ross III (5-11, 192, Jr.)
Chico McClatcher (5-8, 180, So.)
Budda Baker (5-10, 173, So.)

Punt Return:
Dante Pettis (6-0, 177, So.)
Chico McClatcher (5-8, 180, So.)
Budda Baker (5-10, 173, So.)

Snapper:
Luke Hutchison (6-2, 233, So.) OR
A.J. Carty (6-3, 250, RFr.)

Holder:
Jeff Lindquist (6-3, 244, Sr.)
Dante Pettis (6-0, 177, Jr.)

* = walk-on



Expected 2016 Depth Chart Breakdown (85 players expected):

5th year - 6 (7 percent)
4th year - 18 (21 percent)
3rd year - 21 (25 percent)
2nd year - 22 (26 percent)
1st year - 18 (21 percent)



Analysis

As one would expect, now that the Washington staff is well entrenched and has a thorough understanding of its roster construction, the numbers are starting to balance out. Outside of the fourth and fifth year classes that they had nothing to do with, you can see roster balance at around 20-25 percent per year in a five-year cycle. That’s what you want.

It’s hard to say if attrition now will allow the Huskies to add any other numbers to their expected 2016 class, but at the very least any roster attrition from this time on through the end of spring ball will shore up numbers and needs for the 2017 class. And they’ll need to natural attrition to take place to give the 2017 total number a boost, since the number of players out of eligibility after the 2016 season is just nine (Beaver, Brostek, Daniels, Eldrenkamp, King, Lindquist, Mathis, Turpin, Wooching).

But the Huskies will have 75 players available for spring if Amandre Williams, Van Soderberg and Sean McGrew enroll as expected. That means, of the 13 current listed commits for 2016, five will have already enrolled for either winter or spring quarters (Bridge-Gadd, Rapp, Williams, Soderberg, and McGrew). That leaves 10 more scholarships available for prospects to sign in February and enroll for the summer LEAP for Washington to get to their 85 limit, barring any attrition. They have eight currently committed, leaving only two spots available. That would get them to 15 total scholarships for 206.

We expect there will be some movement on attrition, whether it’s players having to retire or deciding to transfer for more playing time. It happens. When it happens may be as crucial as if it happens, because there are still plenty of top 2016 prospects available, and spots that need to be filled.



2016 Recruiting Class Position Breakdown



This is how the numbers break down by position, as it stands:

QB - 1
RB - 1
WR - 1
TE - 1
OL - 2
DL - 0 (DL Myles Rice did grayshirt and enrolled in the winter)
LB - 2
DB - 2
ST - 1

In short, a fair amount of balance across the board with limited scholarships available, and Rice’s inclusion in the 2016 class takes care of one need.

Given Dwayne Washington’s departure, you could certainly see another need for a bigger running back in this class. With a lack of playmakers at receiver a glaring need, there’s no doubt the Huskies will still look to bolster their quality at that position.

With two offensive linemen graduating, it makes sense for a like-for-like numbers exchange there, but if another leaves for some reason, will UW move harder for a player like Nate Herbig?

On defense, you can never have enough big linemen, and if a player like Jonathan Kongbo wants to commit to Washington, they’ll make room. Same goes for Mique Juarez at linebacker or David Long and Byron Murphy at cornerback. Sometimes there are just players you take first and figure out the numbers later.

But the stark reality is, to make the numbers work for those coveted prospects, room will have to be made. Expect attrition to take care of that problem, but when? And will it be in time to make the necessary push to bolster the overall quality of the squad?


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