Weekend Recruiting Primer

In military terms, it's called the BDA - Bomb Damage Assessment. It's a way to determine the damage inflicted on a target by an air campaign. By swooping down and taking the Pac-10 by storm, how did Steve Sarkisian do with his own version of a recruiting aerial assault? As with most BDA's, the results were mixed.

From our best guesses, it appears as if 10 of the Huskies' 13 official visitors this past weekend were either looking around to other programs or were verbally committed to other programs:
Branden Warner - Soft Commit to UCLA, with Official Visits to Washington State and UCLA
Will Sutton - Committed to Arizona State
Nathan Fellner - Soft Commit to UW, with visits to Arizona and Colorado
Desmond Trufant - Official visit to Arizona State and offers from UW, ASU, Colorado and Washington State
James Johnson - Official visits to Colorado, Colorado State and Oregon
Taniela Maka - Committed to UCLA
Josh Moten - Soft Commit to UW
Jeremiah Tofaeono - Official Visit to Nevada
Will Shamburger - Soft Commit to Boise State, with visits to Boise State and ASU
Chris Robinson - Commit to Nevada

So how was the BDA for Sarkisian and his brand-new staff at UW, barely completed the day before with the hiring of Receivers Coach Aaron Roderick? Not too bad, all things considered.

Of the 13 visitors, two are probably off the board - Sutton and Maka. We got the impression that they were pretty happy with ASU and UCLA, respectively. The Huskies will do their work and no doubt try their best to sway these two, but we expect them to stand by their initial commitments.

So that leaves 11, and really only eight if you take off the board Keith Price, Talia Crichton and Andru Pulu, who were firmly committed to Washington before their visits, and re-affirmed their intent this weekend.

You can also take Nate Fellner off the list, as he pledged his commitment to Sarkisian and the Huskies during his visit. The new head man for the Dawgs was also able to turn Shamburger around from BSU and Robinson from Nevada, as they both committed to him on Saturday.

And the big local news was Tacoma Wilson star Desmond Trufant - younger brother of Seattle Seahawks' DB Marcus Trufant - verbally committed to Washington on Saturday after talking with his parents about it.

So of the 13, seven either re-affirmed their commitments, or committed during the weekend. That means Sarkisian has an initial BDA of 54 percent. Not bad, but he has an opportunity to improve in the coming weeks.

Let's look at the remaining prospects on the board from this list:
Branden Warner - Is choosing between UW, UCLA and Tennessee. This one will be a lot of fun to watch, as this is the first big recruiting battle between Sarkisian and former USC assistant Lane Kiffin.

James Johnson - When we talked to him, he didn't want to talk about rumors of his commitment to Washington, and was shocked to hear there were reports to that effect out there.

Josh Moten - Is a Soft Commit to UW and will be visiting Colorado this coming weekend. He is expected to choose between the Huskies and Buffaloes soon after his official visit to Boulder.

Jeremiah Tofaeono - Is expected to commit to Washington during a Wednesday in-home with his family and the UW coaches. That means no official visit to Utah this coming weekend.
So if we take even a modest BDA with the final four and say only two commit to Washington down the road, that means that nine of the 13 official visitors committed - 69 percent.

In short - given a conservative assessment, Steve Sarkisian is roughly going to land seven of every ten prospects that official visit Washington, regardless of whether they have verbally committed to another school or not. That's a decent mark for a brand-new head coach looking to make the biggest splash in one of the largest ponds in D1 football - the Pac-10 conference.

With 15 visitors currently scheduled to visit Washington in the next two weeks (and expect that number to probably go up as we learn about new prospects), we can extrapolate Sarkisian's BDA percentage to assume that he would land 10 of those players. So who might they be? Let's take an educated guess.

For the 1/23 recruiting weekend - Marlion Barnett, Aaron Grymes and Semisi Tokolahi are either committed or are Soft Commits at this time. If they all either confirm or re-confirm, that leaves seven.

For the 1/30 weekend, there are no current commitments.

Given from the pool of 12 prospects left over, we believe James Boyd, Delvon Purvis, Dominque Gaisie, Tim Tucker, Eddie Williams, Owen Dixon and Aulola Tonga are the best bets to end up signing with UW on Wednesday, February 4th - the first day of the official signing period.

So in total, with 13 current commitments (and the status of Texas CB Kenneth Pinkard appears to be up in the air), 10 more commitments over the next two weekends would mean a total of 23 total verbal commits. That's the minimum number we expect UW to take, based on the BDA gathered after the Huskies' first recruiting weekend.
For those that want a complete rundown on all the Scout.com articles on UW recruiting targets put out Saturday night and Sunday, click on the links below.

Early Returns Promising - http://washington.scout.com/2/831189.html

Trip Report: Jeremiah Tofaeono - http://washington.scout.com/2/831315.html

Trip Report: Nate Fellner - http://washington.scout.com/2/831324.html

Trip Report: Andru Pulu - http://washington.scout.com/2/831325.html

Trip Report: Josh Moten - http://washington.scout.com/2/831336.html

Trip Report: Keith Price - http://washington.scout.com/2/831361.html

Stanjarivus McKay: Talks about Latest Visit - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831373

James Johnson: Still Waiting - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=9&c=2&cid=831374& nid=3347488&fhn=1

Tony Heard: Lone Offer Goes by the Wayside - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=9&c=2&cid=831383&nid=2723139&fhn=1

Will Shamburger: Happy to be a Dawg - http://washington.scout.com/2/831399.html

Trip Report: Talia Crichton - http://washington.scout.com/2/831400.html

Chris Robinson: Commits to Huskies - http://washington.scout.com/2/831402.html

Eddie Williams: Still Taking Visits - http://recruiting.scout.com/2/831409.html

Trip Report: Branden Warner - http://washington.scout.com/2/831418.html

Jamaal Burrell: Has Two Leaders - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831423

Aulola Tonga: Gets Good News on Trip - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831432

Trip Report: Taniela Maka - http://washington.scout.com/2/831420.html

Desmond Trufant: Seals the Deal - http://washington.scout.com/2/831442.html

Trip Report: Will Sutton - http://washington.scout.com/2/831479.html

Sione Tuihalamaka: Gives Lincoln a '10' - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831490

Unofficial Trip Report: Jake Heaps - http://washington.scout.com/2/831536.html

Justin Brown: Enjoys Boulder - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831537

Tim Tucker: Visiting Pac-10 Foes - http://washington.scout.com/a.z?s=147&p=2&c=831542

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