Breakdown: Indiana

Under Coach Bret Bielema, Wisconsin has beaten Indiana by an average of 39.4 points. Saturday's matchup in Bloomington appears to be much tighter. Badger Nation breaks down and predicts the match-up.

Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2 Big Ten) vs. Indiana (3-5, 2-3 Big Ten)

Date/Time - Saturday, November 10 at 11 a.m. CT

Stadium – Memorial Stadium (52,929/FieldTurf)

Television –ESPN2 (Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway and Niki Noto)

Radio - Wisconsin Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Mike Lucas), Sirius 113, XM 194

Series – Wisconsin leads 38-18-2 (Wisconsin leads 16-9-1 in Bloomington)

Last Meeting – Wisconsin won, 59-7, on October 15, 2011 in Madison

Last week's Badger Nation game coverage

Last meeting's Badger Nation game coverage

Series Notes

Wisconsin has won its six games vs. Indiana during Bielema's tenure by an average of 39.4 points (52.2-12.8).

The Badgers have won six of their last seven meetings with Indiana in Bloomington. That includes all three road games at Memorial Stadium under Bret Bielema, wins that have come by an average score of 46.0-21.7.

The Badgers have scored at least 30 points in 10 of the teams' past 11 meetings, going 9-1 in those games. UW has topped 50 points four times in the teams' last six meetings.

Three players on the Indiana roster hail from The Badger State. Sophomore offensive lineman Cody Evers (Little Chute/Little Chute), sophomore defensive end John Laihinen (Mequon/Homestead) and fifth-year senior Alexander Webb (Mequon/Homestead) all came to Bloomington from the state of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin offensive coordinator Matt Canada spent the 2004-10 seasons with the Hoosiers. He coached the quarterbacks each year, became passing game coordinator in 2005 and 2006, and served as offensive coordinator from 2007-10.

UW quality control coach Max Dedmond lettered as an IU tight end from 2008-11. Dedmond was a co-captain in 2011 and finished his career with 36 catches for 304 yards and three touchdowns.

Wisconsin Notes

Wisconsin is 22-6 in games played after Nov. 1 under seventh-year head coach Bret Bielema, including a 19-2 mark in regular-season games and a 17-2 record in Big Ten games.

Dating back to the 2010 season, Wisconsin has won 16 of its last 20 Big Ten games. UW's four losses have each come by six points or less, with an average margin of 4.0 points.

Wisconsin is 24-7 in its last 31 games. Each of the Badgers' seven losses have come by seven points or less, with an average margin of 4.0 points (28 total points).

After being flagged for just two penalties in each of their past two games, the Badgers have averaged 3.8 penalties per game this season, ranking them in a tie for the fifth-lowest average nationally. Navy and Kansas State are tied for the national lead at 3.4 flags per game.

UW is also allowing just 17.4 points per game in conference play, the second- best mark among Big Ten teams. Michigan leads the league at 11.8 points allowed per conference game.

Indiana Notes

The Hoosiers defense has given up just 17 points in the last 102:12.

Cody Latimer surpassed his 2011 totals through the first three games this year. Overall, he owns a team-best 645 yards, is second with 39 catches and 4.3 per game (10th in Big Ten), and is second with five scores, which is tied for fifth in the Big Ten.

Stephen Houston joined the Hoosiers in July of 2011 from Independence (Kan.) CC. The 228-pound running back earned his first start in the Big Ten opener against Penn State, and he remained in the starting lineup the rest of the way. In his eight starts, Houston recorded 711 rushing yards on 129 carries with seven scores, a 5.5 average and 88.9 yards per game.

IU is plus-3 in turnover margin (minus-2 last year), picking off five passes and recovering five fumbles.

After averaging 19.2 yards per kick return a season ago, Indiana leads the Big Ten and sits 38th nationally with a 23.6 average.

Prediction

Despite trailing in time of possession (27:14-32:46), Indiana leads its opponents in plays per game (77.3-77.0) and is nearly even in first downs per game (23.7-24.2). Since it doesn't have elite playmakers yet at some skill positions, the Hoosiers hurry up offense has caused some teams to go long period of time without subbing defensive linemen, causing the pressure up front to wane if the drive if extended.

"If they don't sub, you don't have a choice," said Bielema. "You can't sub because you can't get your personnel out there. Your play is dictated by the speed of the offense … One of the things we strongly believe in here is we play four to five defensive tackles and four to five defensive ends. When those guys have to play a 10 to 12 play scripted set, it's a different game for them."

It's also going to be a different test for Wisconsin's secondary. Michigan State was far from a passing juggernaut, but Indiana is the third highest scoring offense in the Big Ten. Indiana has 19 passing touchdowns this season, which is tied for second in the Big Ten, after throwing just 10 in all of 2011.

The Hoosiers also don't turn the ball over, as their six interceptions is tied for fourth in the Big Ten. Senior cornerback Devin Smith said his unit has felt disrespected by not being recognized as one of the top units in the conference.

"We know we haven't gotten a lot of respect as far as being solid in coverage and holding our own," said Smith. "We have to let everyone know we are worthy of the respect we should be given."

The Hoosiers have 28 70-plus yard scoring drives in 2012 after recording just 18 last season. Wisconsin has allowed an average of 169.6 passing yards per game in Big Ten play, the fourth-best mark in the league. Since Indiana has struggled running the football and Wisconsin's defense has yet to allow an opposing running back eclipse 100 yards on the season.

I am not keen on Curt Phillips starting at quarterback, but the fifth-year senior has a great talent behind him in Montee Ball, who should get extremely close to the NCAA's all-time touchdown record this weekend. The Badgers are favored by seven points, and I think UW's running game and its defense gets them over the edge.

Wisconsin has held 17 of its last 23 opponents to fewer than 18 points, going 15-2 in those games. I don't think UW will hold Indiana under 17, but I don't think the Hoosiers will do enough to stop Wisconsin from playing for a third straight Big Ten championship.

Wisconsin 31, Indiana 21

Worgull's Predictions

Straight up: 7-2

Against the Spread: 7-1

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