BadgerNation predicts the outcome for Wisconsin's Homecoming game vs. Purdue

BadgerNation looks at the matchup between Wisconsin and Purdue at Camp Randall Stadium Saturday morning.

Purdue (1-5, 0-2 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1 Big Ten)

Date/Time - Saturday, October 17 at 11:01 a.m. CT

Stadium – Camp Randall Stadium (80,321/FieldTurf)

Television – Big Ten Network (Kevin Kugler, Matt Millen, Lisa Byington)

Radio - Wisconsin Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Mike Lucas)

Series – Wisconsin leads 45-29-8 (Wisconsin leads 25-12-5 in Madison)

Last Meeting - Wisconsin won, 36-14, on November 8, 2014 at West Lafayette, Ind.

Series Notes

Wisconsin has outscored Purdue 140-27 over the teams’ last three meetings at Camp Randall Stadium (2009, 2011, 2013), for an average margin of victory of 37.7 points per game. UW has won four straight meetings with the Boilermakers in Madison.

Wisconsin has won nine straight over Purdue, marking the longest win streak by either team in the history of the schools’ all-time series, which dates back to 1892.

UW’s nine-game win streak vs. Purdue matches the Badgers’ third-longest run of success vs. a conference opponent all-time: Northwestern (13, 1972-84), Minnesota (11, 2004-present) and Indiana (9, 2005-present).

UW’s win streak dates back to a thrilling victory on Oct. 16, 2004 set up by CB Scott Starks’ 40-yard fumble recovery touchdown with 2:36 remaining. The play capped a fourth quarter that saw No. 10 Wisconsin rally from a 17-7 deficit to score a 20-17 win over the No. 5 Boilermakers in West Lafayette.

Since that night, Wisconsin owns an overall record of 104-41 (.717) and Purdue is 54-82 (.397).

Wisconsin Notes to Consider

Senior QB Joel Stave has passed for 4,092 yards in 23 career Big Ten games. His average of 177.9 yards per conference game trails only John Stocco (201.8) among Badgers QBs since 1996.

15 different players have caught a pass for Wisconsin this season: 6 wide receivers (Alex Erickson, Jordan Fredrick, Reggie Love, Tanner McEvoy, Jazz Peavy, Rob Wheelwright); 6 running backs (Corey Clement, Taiwan Deal, Caleb Kinlaw, Dare Ogunbowale, Austin Ramesh, Derek Watt) and 3 tight ends (Troy Fumagalli, Eric Steffes and Austin Traylor).

After giving up 238 rushing yards to Alabama in its season opener Sept. 5, Wisconsin has surrendered an average of 86.0 yards over its last five games. Nationally, only Boston College (48.6 ypg), Michigan (53.6), Boise State (67.0), Pittsburgh (73.8) and Alabama (84.8) have allowed a lower average over the past five weeks.

Through six games, Wisconsin’s leading receiver (WR Alex Erickson, 463 yards) has amassed more yardage than its leading rusher (RB Dare Ogunbowale, 426). The Badgers have seen their leading receiver outgain their leading rusher in a season just 12 times in the modern era (since 1946) — eight of which came over a 10-year stretch from 1961-70.

Purdue Notes to Consider

Purdue’s top two running backs – D.J. Knox and Markell Jones - both recorded their first career carry in the season opener at Marshall.

The Boilermaker defense has recorded 12 sacks through the first six game this season.

Eight different Boilermakers have recorded a takeaway this season, led by Danny Ezechukwu and Anthony Brown, who both have two.

Purdue is third in Big Ten games in passing defense, allowing just 110.5 pass yards per Big Ten game.

Prediction

Wisconsin has dominated this series because Purdue hasn’t stopped UW rushing attack. Even though the Badgers aren’t as dominate on the ground as in past years, the Boilermakers still can’t stop anybody, giving up over 215 yards on the ground, worst in the Big Ten. I fully expect UW’s offensive line – which could have the same starting five for back-to-back weeks (shocking, right?) – to take advantage of Purdue’s front, thus opening up the running game and the offense. Combine that with UW’s stingy defense, the Badgers should easily cover the 23.5-point spread.

Wisconsin wins, 35-10.

Worgull's Predictions

Straight up: 5-1

Against the Spread: 5-1


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