Capital One Bowl By the Numbers

Badgermaniac breaks down the 2007 Capital One Bowl matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Today's focus is the rushing offense of Arkansas vs. the rushing defense of Wisconsin.

Over the next few weeks, I will be attempting to break down some of the numbers for the 2007 Capital One Bowl adversaries by comparing various numbers against the team's opposition in order to control for the opposition that each team faced. For instance, holding Purdue and their 30 PPG average to 3 points is much more impressive than holding Buffalo and their 20 PPG to 3 points. I have tossed out the games involving the respective teams and compared each game result to an expected average total given the opponent.

In today's analysis, I take a look at the Arkansas rushing attack vs. the Wisconsin rushing defense. Note that both teams played a 1-AA team, which have been thrown out of the numbers due to those teams playing in a totally different context. Also note that sack yardage has been taken out of all the numbers. They will be included later in the analysis on passing offense/defense.

First, let's look at the Arkansas rushing offense:

Rushing Offense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opponent

CAR

YDS

YPC

AvCAR

AvYDS

YPC

USC

26

138

5.3

28

110

3.9

Utah St.

37

283

7.6

36

185

5.1

Vandy

38

183

4.8

36

171

4.8

Alabama

30

179

6.0

30

120

4.0

Auburn

45

279

6.2

30

128

4.3

Mississippi

36

144

4.0

37

166

4.5

LA-Monroe

40

331

8.3

33

145

4.4

S. Carolina

50

267

5.3

32

154

4.8

Tennessee

45

259

5.8

33

144

4.4

Miss. State

38

128

3.4

31

127

4.1

LSU

37

319

8.6

27

92

3.4

Florida

35

132

3.8

24

87

3.6

 

457.0

2642.0

5.8

377.0

1629.0

4.3

 

41.5

240.2

 

34.3

148.1

 

Arkansas averaged 42 carries per game for 240 yards for 5.8 yards per carry. Their opposition typically allowed 34 carries for 148 yards and 4.3 per carry.

Their best rushing games were against LSU (+227 yards, +5.3 YPC), Auburn (+151 yards, +1.9 YPC), and LA-Monroe (+186 yards, +3.9 YPC), though they also had numerous other games that would be considered terrific rushing games.

Their worst games were against Mississippi (-22 yards, -0.5 YPC) and Mississippi State (+1 yard, -0.7 YPC), though once again, neither was really a terrible game.

Overall, they had "plus" rushing yards in every game but one. Their rushing attack was downright devastating more often than not.

Arkansas played teams with similar rushing defenses to Wisconsin (slightly fewer yards per game but also a lower yard per carry average), but whereas Wisconsin just had a slight boost per carry, the Hogs averaged a yard and a half more per carry than their opponents typically allowed. This is a huge huge figure and there is little doubt that Arkansas is a stellar running team.

Wisconsin rushing defense

Rushing Defense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opponent

CAR

YDS

YPC

AvCAR

AvYDS

YPC

Bowling Green

45

228

5.1

40

182

4.6

SD State

26

13

0.5

34

142

4.2

Michigan

37

123

3.3

42

205

4.9

Indiana

31

182

5.9

31

125

4.0

Northwestern

26

137

5.3

34

157

4.6

Minnesota

26

125

4.8

35

161

4.6

Purdue

22

111

5.0

29

145

5.0

Illinois

39

133

3.4

33

213

6.5

PSU

15

68

4.5

34

162

4.8

Iowa

19

134

7.1

32

159

5.0

Buffalo

24

65

2.7

28

113

4.0

 

310.0

1319.0

4.3

372.0

1764.0

4.7

 

28.2

119.9

 

33.8

160.4

 

The Wisconsin defense allowed an average of 28 carries for 120 yards and a 4.3 YPC average on the season. Their opponent's average game was 34 carries for 160 yards and 4.7 YPC.

Their best rushing defensive games were against San Diego State (-129 yards, -3.7 YPC), Michigan (-82 yards, -1.6 YPC), and Illinois (-80 yards, -3.1 YPC).

Their worst rushing defensive games were against Bowling Green (+46 yards, +0.5 YPC), Indiana (+57 yards, +1.9 YPC), and Iowa (-25 yards, +2.1 YPC).

Overall, they had "plus" rush defense games ten times and "minus" rush defense games twice. It is notable that their third worst game was actually a game in which they held their opposition to fewer than their average, though the YPC was a bit high which is why it went into the worst category. It is also notable that all three of the teams that Wisconsin somewhat struggled with had very mobile QBs.

Analysis:

Wisconsin's rushing defense is good. It was pretty consistent without ever really truly being dominant. Similar to their rushing offense, the yards per carry totals are actually just a little bit above average. They did not really stuff the run as much as they got ahead early in games and forced teams to abandon a consistent running attack. However, in Arkansas, they will face a team that was dominant on the ground. They ran the ball on just about everybody and were often exceptionally good. They probably won't run Wisconsin into the ground, but just as the Badgers should be able to run the ball against Arkansas, the Hogs should be able to run the ball on Wisconsin (on paper).

Next: Wisconsin's Passing Offense vs. Arkansas' passing defense


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