ROTO VISIONARY BLOG - JULY 24
I think many of you might have been surprised to see that I had QB Cam Newton ranked so high in my Top 20 QB Rankings. In fact, for those of you who were daily listeners to my SiriusXM morning radio show, you might remember the diatribe that I had about Newton being the most overrated QB in Fantasy Football this season. So, you might ask, “Hey Doc, why the change of heart?”
The simple fact is that Fantasy Football is a numbers game. I need to score more points than my opponent each week in order to win. When I draft my teams I look for point differential, the number of points which separates one player from another. In a total points league (according to my visionary projections), Newton really is the 5th highest rated QB.
Let’s take a closer look:
25 passing TDs x 4 = 100
3800 passing yards / 20 passing yards per pt = 190
550 rushing yards x .10 pt. = 55 points
6 rushing TDs x 6 points each = 36 points
Total Points: 381
I think these are reasonably conservative statistics for Newton. In fact, he could rush for even more yards this season.
The problem comes from the fact that if Newton does not score points with his legs, he is incredibly inconsistent with his arm. Add to it that he lost his best WR in Steve Smith, and the Panthers employ a run heavy offensive scheme, it is easy to see why most teams will avoid Newton on draft day.
Will I take Cam Newton this year? I doubt it. Is he a Top 5 QB according to the rankings? Yes.