- Scattered storms could cause a delay in Baltimore tonight
- Cleveland Indians hosting LHP Kyle Lobstein
- Kansas City Royals (righties) hosting LHP Derek Holland
- Los Angeles Angels visiting RHP Brad Peacock
- New York Mets visiting RHP Brad Penny
- San Francisco Giants visiting RHP Jordan Lyles
Longshot stack:Minnesota Twins hosting RHP Hector Noesi
Potential Slugfest:Kansas City Royals (-150) hosting Texas Rangers. Over/Under = 8 runs
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There’s an obvious stud SP on tonight’s slate, but at $14,900, playing Clayton Kershaw can really cripple the upside of your lineup. If you feel like gambling, Arrieta may be able to provide 25-30 DK points for over 5K cheaper. He’ll be overlooked since he was pummeled in his last start at Cincinnati, but returns home, where he’s 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 4.00 K/BB ratio over his last 3 starts. One of those outings came against a Brewers lineup that has become even less dangerous due to an injury to Carlos Gomez, and failed to get much of anything going against weak RHP Jacob Turner yesterday. Facing a primarily right-handed lineup is great news for Arrieta, who is holding RHB to a measly .178 wOBA at Wrigley Field this season. He’s an under-the-radar play that could certainly bounce back this evening.
Gray was solid in consecutive starts against the Angels high-powered offense, so he should draw plenty of consideration against a very inconsistent Mariners squad. It's no secret that Seattle's lineup is chalk full of left-handed bats, and Gray has been excellent against the platoon as he's held LHB to a .221 average and .282 wOBA this season. Those numbers are lower or comparable to his numbers against RHB, and he also has a much higher K/9 ratio (8.08) against LHB. That explains why he's 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 7.43 K/9 (24.9 DK points) in 3 starts against Seattle this year. Mariners batters are pressing a little with a 22% K-rate and .250 batting average over the past 2 weeks as they're fighting for a Wildcard spot, and Gray may be able to exceed value by punching out a number of them.
Yusmeiro Petit (SF) @ COL: $6800 – Facing RHP Jordan Lyles
After holding Colorado to 4 H and 1 ER over 6 IP (31.1 DK points) during his last start, Petit is sporting a 1.20 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 ratio in 5 appearances against the Rockies this season. His price has decreased since he’s slated to start at Coors Field, but he’s been solid with a 2.77 ERA and 9.69 K/9 ratio in his last 3 appearances at that park. One of those outings came when he received a spot start on August 27, 2013, and he came away with the Win in that contest. With a 2.58 FIP and 6.7% HR/FB ratio in 2014, Petit simply isn't allowing enough strong contact for Park Factor to come into play very often. He'll face a watered-down Rockies lineup that played about 1.7 games during yesterday's “doubleheader,” and should be able to exceed value on this reasonable price tag.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. DET: $8600 – Facing LHP Kyle Lobstein
Carrasco’s not a longshot because of a lack of talent, but because he’s facing one of the best offenses in the American League. With Miguel Cabrera heating up, the Tigers were able to knock Indians Ace Corey Kluber out in the 2nd inning of yesterday’s game (poor defense played a factor), so Carrasco will need his best stuff tonight. He’s been pretty much untouchable with a 1.83 ERA and .187 BAA since the ASB, and has maintained that level as he’s posted an 8.80 K/9 ratio, and held opposing batters to a .205 wOBA in 5 starts since joining the Indians rotation. His confidence is growing along with his pitch count, as he’s posted an 8.00 K/BB ratio while producing 25.8 DK PPG over his last 4 outings. He’s facing off with a rookie LHP, so run support shouldn't be much of an issue as he looks to earn his 4th Win in 5 starts
Salvador Perez (KC) vs. TEX: $3900 – Facing LHP Derek Holland
Let’s get right to one of the best stacking options tonight in the division-leading Royals. Derek Holland is making his 2014 debut against a disciplined, and motivated MLB squad after posting a 5.88 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 4 starts at the AAA level. The Royals .267 average against LHP is the 4th best mark in the A.L. and they have the lowest K-rate in the Majors. Perez is a career .313 hitter against LHP, and comes into tonight’s contest with multi-hit games in 4 of his last 5 starts. He has tremendous upside if he’s in the heart of the Royals order this evening.
Travis d’Arnaud ($3200) remains a solid value that will likely bat 5th for the Mets against ancient RHP Brad Penny.
Kenny Vargas (MIN) vs. CWS: $4500 – Facing RHP Hector Noesi
Vargas has been a revelation as the Twins cleanup hitter, and has produced DK points in 29 of his 30 appearances this season. The rookie switch-hitter is sporting a .406 wOBA and .216 ISO as a LHB, and has plenty of upside as the Twins welcome Noesi and his 5.29 road ERA to Target Field tonight. Vargas is averaging 11.5 DK points while batting .358 in 13 home games this season, so he should continue to be productive in a game with a 9 run Over/Under.
Joe Mauer ($4000) will likely bat in front of Vargas in the 3-hole for the Twins, and got back to his steady ways with a 3-hit performance yesterday.
Billy Butler ($4000) is scuffiling, but has good career splits against LHP Derek Holland and will be fresh after getting the last two days off.
Joe Panik (SF) @ COL: $3700 – Facing RHP Jordan Lyles
Second base doesn’t seem to be a position with much upside tonight, as most of the top-tier options have tough matchups. But Panik is red-hot, has the platoon advantage, and is available for a mid-tier price. The rookie is batting .384 during his current 6-game hitting streak, as he’s thrived in his new role as the Giants 2-hitter. Lyles is really struggling against the platoon, and has had even more trouble as he’s allowing LHB to post a .419 wOBA at Coors Field this season. Along with leadoff man Angel Pagan, Panik will look to set the table for the Giants thumpers in a game with the highest O/U of the evening.
The human soup can known as Kyle Kendrick is on the mound for the Phillies tonight, so any Braves 2B (Phil Gosselin, Tommy La Stella, or Emilio Bonifacio) that starts in the No. 2 spot would have plenty of upside as a value play.
Luis Valbuena ($4000) stayed hot with a solo HR yesterday, and is worth a look as the Cubs likely cleanup hitter.
David Wright (NYM) @ MIA: $3600 – Facing RHP Brad Penny
Wright is averaging a solid 7.25 DK points over 4 his last 4 games, and the fact that he stole a base yesterday may indicate that he's getting back to full health. That would be great timing as he faces an over-the-hill RHP in Brad Penny, who he's crushed (12-20, 5 BB, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 1.854 OPS) throughout his career. Penny has coughed up 7 ER over his last 8.1 IP, and is allowing RHB to bat .296 so far this season. Along with teammate Travis D'Arnaud, Wright should be a reasonably safe value play that will allow you enough cap space to squeeze Clayton Kershaw into your lineups.
Zach Walters ($2700) singled after relieving Mike Aviles in RF yesterday. The switch-hitter should be in the Indians lineup against LHP Kyle Lobstein, as he’s posted a fantastic .394 ISO as a RHB this season.
Lonnie Chisenhall ($3900) is heating up for the first time in months as he’s batting .417 over his last 10 games. He’s actually better against LHP, so a matchup with Lobstein doesn’t cap his upside at all.
Erick Aybar (LAA) @ HOU: $4200 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock
Because he rarely produces double-digit DK points, Aybar’s price remains in a very reasonable range. Yet the Angels SS has been on fire for weeks, and could be part of a profitable stack this evening. Peacock has been pummeled in 2 starts against the Angels this season, posting an 8.70 ERA and .329 BAA, which are coincidentally close to his numbers against all opponents (8.55 ERA, .332 BAA) over his last 10 starts. He’s one of the worst SP in the Majors, and has allowed LHB to post a .369 wOBA against him throughout his career. It would be truly shocking if he was the SP to help end Aybar’s 16-game hitting streak
Dilson Herrera ($2500) turned heads with a HR, and a triple as he produced 26 DK points yesterday. The Mets rookie remains under priced and has a great matchup against Brad Penny tonight.
Danny Santana (MIN) isn’t a longshot to produce, but he’d need a big game to exceed value at his $4500 price tag. The way Hector Noesi occasionally implodes on the road, that’s not out of the question.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) vs. NYM: $5300 – Facing LHP Jon Niese
The Marlins returned home yesterday after a lengthy road trip, and Stanton promptly launched a HR in his first at bat. For whatever reason, the strongest hitter in baseball loves his home cooking, and 22 of his league-leading 34 HRs have now come at cavernous Marlins Stadium. He’s 9-24 (.375) with 8 Ks in his career against Niese, but has also connected for 2 HRs, so he’s an enticing GPP play as usual. Stanton has a .454 wOBA against LHP and a .444 wOBA against all pitchers at home, so he’s certainly worth this price tag against a mediocre southpaw.
Holliday continued his hot streak with 2 hits and 3 RBI yesterday, and will have the platoon advantage against Locke. The Pirates southpaw is finding a way to limit damage despite a subpar 4.31 FIP this season, but his 1.23 HR/9 ratio when facing RHB inspires confidence in the suddenly white-hot Holliday. The Cardinals surging slugger is 5-11 with a HR in his career against Locke, and has posted a .400 wOBA against LHP this season. He’s averaging 13.5 DK points over his last 10 games, and isn’t that expensive considering his upside.
Jorge Soler (CHC) vs. MIL: $4500 – Facing RHP Yovani Gallardo
You simply can’t fade this guy until he proves that he’s human. Soler logged 2 more doubles in his home debut yesterday, and has an XBH in each of his 5 MLB appearances. Gallardo has poor reverse-platoon splits, as he’s allowing RHB to post a .324 wOBA this season, and could struggle to retire a right-handed slugger that has crushed every opponent so far in his career.
Ender Inciarte ($3700) and David Peralta ($3600) are solid value options with the platoon advantage as the Diamondbacks visit struggling rookie RHP Odrisamer Despaigne and the Padres tonight.
Jordan Schafer ($3500) is a relatively safe play, but his upside has been very notable lately and the Twins likely 9-hitter could flash it against Hector Noesi.
Chris Coghlan ($3300) continued to produce with 8 DK points last night, and the Cubs leadoff man happens to be 6-9 in his career against Yovani Gallardo.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7
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