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NASCAR DFS: AAA 400 Post-Qualifying

Now that qualifying is in the books, Fantasy NASCAR Expert Brian Polking points out which drivers to target on DraftKings!

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AAA 400

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Thanks to an assist from Mother Nature, Kevin Harvick will lead the field to the green in Sunday's AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. Qualifying for the event was rained out, setting the field by practice speed and putting Harvick on the pole. He turned a lap of 165.145 mph in the opening practice to secure the top spot.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. will join Harvick on the front row, and Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will round out the top five. In addition to putting Busch and Edwards on the second row, Joe Gibbs Racing put all four of its cars in the top 10, and Martin Truex Jr., whose team has an alliance with JGR, will also start in the top 10.

The rain also burned a few big names, including Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano, who will both start outside the top 20. Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray are a couple of other notable drivers starting outside the top 20, and Clint Bowyer and Tony Stewart will start outside the top 30.

Passing tends to be at Dover, so it should be no surprise that starting up front has been a major benefit over the years. There have been 92 Cup races at Dover, and 71 have been won by a driver starting in the top 10 while only five races have been won by a driver starting outside the top 20.

Starting position is also crucial for a driver's fantasy value at DraftKings, especially when you are looking for a cheaper option. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers that saw their value receive a boost now that the starting lineup for the AAA 400 at Dover is set in stone.

Must-Own Drivers

Jimmie Johnson ($10,700)

A lackluster 26th-place effort in qualifying has Harvick poised for a monster point total. Harvick owns the third-best average finish at Kansas, and he has a 6.6 average finish over the last five races here. During the same stretch, no driver has led more laps at the track, and Harvick has finished either first or second three times. He should be a worthwhile option based on place differential potential alone, and don’t be surprised if he still logs bonus points in the laps led and fastest laps run categories despite starting deep in the field.

Kyle Busch ($10,500)

No driver is running better right now than Busch, and in the six races leading up to Dover, he has three wins and two second-place finishes. Busch also finished second at Dover last fall, and he ranks third in laps at the track overall. Starting third, Busch is in prime position to deliver another impressive, high-scoring performance.

Kevin Harvick ($10,400)

Rain has Harvick on the pole, and if his recent results at Dover are any indication, he might just stay up front all afternoon. He led 355 of the 400 laps in a victory here last fall, and since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, Harvick has led a series-high 693 laps in four starts at Dover, leading more than 90 laps three times. Build around Harvick this weekend, especially in cash games.

Value Plays

Kyle Larson ($7,900)

With qualifying being canceled, Larson will have to start 23rd. However, he has never finished worse than 11th in four starts at Dover, and he has a 7.3 average finish at the track overall. A top 10 finish and 10-15 points through place differential could have Larson flirting with 50 fantasy points.

Jamie McMurray ($7,600)

His recent numbers at Dover are intriguing, and in his last five starts here, he has four top 15s, including finishes of seventh and fourth last year. McMurray will roll off 24th, so 10-plus bonus points through place differential are likely, and the potential for an even bigger day is there.

Tony Stewart ($7,400)

Stewart will have to start in 34th, but he has shown top 20 speed in each of his two races since returning from injury. If he can just duplicate the results he has shown so far, he will be good for around 30 fantasy points, and his ceiling only goes up from there.

Ryan Blaney ($7,200)

He will start 18th Sunday, but over the last few weeks, Blaney has shown his upside. He has three finishes of 11th or better in the last four races, including a fifth-place run last weekend at Kansas. His price tag is reasonable, and if he challenges for a top 10, he will provide around 40 fantasy points.

Clint Bowyer ($6,400)

It has been a rough year for Bowyer, but his price tag, starting position and numbers at Dover make him worth a look. In the last ten races here, he hasn't finished worse than 14th, and his 8.0 average finish during the stretch is tied for the best in the series. Starting 32nd, he only needs to sneak into the top 20 to deliver 30-plus fantasy points.

Sleeper Special

Danica Patrick ($6,200)

Patrick will start back in 31st, but she has been trending in the right direction at Dover. She has four straight top 25 finishes at the track, including finishes of 15th and 21st last year. Patrick should be able to challenge for a top 20, and by the time place differential is factored in, she should be a cheap source of 30-plus fantasy points.

2016 AAA 400 Starting Lineup

Pos.

No.

Driver

Sponsor

Make

1

4

Kevin Harvick

Jimmy John's

Chevrolet

2

88

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Nationwide

Chevrolet

3

18

Kyle Busch

Pedigree

Toyota

4

19

Carl Edwards

Stanley

Toyota

5

17

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Sunny D

Ford

6

11

Denny Hamlin

FedEx Office

Toyota

7

78

Martin Truex Jr.

Furniture Row

Toyota

8

31

Ryan Newman

Caterpillar

Chevrolet

9

41

Kurt Busch

Haas Automation/Monster Energy

Chevrolet

10

20

Matt Kenseth

Dollar General

Toyota

11

5

Kasey Kahne

Farmers Insurance

Chevrolet

12

3

Austin Dillon

AAA

Chevrolet

13

24

Chase Elliott

NAPA Auto Parts

Chevrolet

14

2

Brad Keselowski

Wurth

Ford

15

43

Aric Almirola

Smithfield

Ford

16

16

Greg Biffle

Kleen Performance Products

Ford

17

44

Brian Scott

ACME/Shore Lodge

Ford

18

21

Ryan Blaney

Motorcraft/Quick Lane Tire + Auto Center

Ford

19

27

Paul Menard

Schrock/Menards

Chevrolet

20

47

AJ Allmendinger

Bush's Beans

Chevrolet

21

48

Jimmie Johnson

Lowe's

Chevrolet

22

22

Joey Logano

Shell-Pennzoil

Ford

23

42

Kyle Larson

Target

Chevrolet

24

1

Jamie McMurray

McDonald's/Cessna

Chevrolet

25

6

Trevor Bayne

AdvoCare

Ford

26

13

Casey Mears

GEICO

Chevrolet

27

23

David Ragan

Dr. Pepper

Toyota

28

95

Michael McDowell

WRL General Contractors

Chevrolet

29

83

Matt DiBenedetto

Cosmo Motors

Toyota

30

34

Chris Buescher

Dockside Logistics

Ford

31

10

Danica Patrick

Nature’s Bakery/Autism Delaware

Chevrolet

32

15

Clint Bowyer

5-Hour Energy

Chevrolet

33

7

Regan Smith

APC

Chevrolet

34

14

Tony Stewart

Code 3 Associates/Mobil 1

Chevrolet

35

38

Landon Cassill

MDS Transport

Ford

36

98

Cole Whitt

VYDOX Plus

Chevrolet

37

46

Michael Annett

Pilot Flying J

Chevrolet

38

55

Reed Sorenson

World Record Striper Company

Chevrolet

39

32

Jeffrey Earnhardt

CorvetteParts.net

Ford

40

30

Josh Wise

Curtis Key Plumbing

Chevrolet


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