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Scouting the MLB DFS - Saturday, August 20

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Plays of the Day

Value: Sandy Leon is still relatively cheap on DraftKings given his floor/ceiling combination lately and he's definitely worth a look in tonight's matchup. The Red Sox will face a young LH starter in Daniel Norris, who is lucky to only be sporting a 3.47 ERA with a .309 BAA and 1.67 WHIP over 6 appearances this year. He certainly could struggle against a Boston team that ranks atop the MLB with a collective .282 batting average against lefties this season, and a backstop in Leon that is batting .444 with 4 doubles and 4 HR over 45 at-bats against LHP on the year.

Fade: Jose Altuve had a massive game last night as you might expect against a weak LH starter, but I think he comes back to earth this evening against Orioles RHP Chris Tillman. The solid SP is coming off consecutive Quality Starts on the road and he has good splits against this Astros squad, as team MVP Altuve is just 2-for-14 with no XBH in his career against Tillman.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Detroit, Cincy and Cleveland this evening in storms move into the area.

Stackable Menu

  1. Mariners hosting RHP Wily Peralta
  2. Cubs visiting RHP Jeff Hoffman
  3. Red Sox visiting LHP Daniel Norris
  4. Diamondbacks visiting LHP Clayton Richard
  5. Reds hosting LHP Brett Anderson

Longshot Stack: Nationals visiting RHP Tyrell Jenkins


Pitchers

Two Studs

Max Scherzer: (WAS) @ ATL DK:$13,600/FD:$11,000

Well, Scherzer was unable to overcome the thin air and increased Run Factor at Coors Field in his last outing, but I’m certainly willing to trust the Nationals ace at Turner Field. Prior to getting touched up in Colorado, he had turned in 8 consecutive Quality Starts with a Major League best 70 strikeouts during that span and now he faces a Braves team that ranks dead last in terms of collective wOBA (.291) on the season. Scherzer posted modest numbers against Atlanta in consecutive starts to begin his 2016 campaign, yet he’s really started to find a rhythm as the weather warms and he’s emerged as the premier SP in DFS with a 2.44 ERA, .181 BAA and 11.27 K/9 ratio over his last 10 appearances.

Felix Hernandez: (SEA) vs. MIL DK:$11,500/FD:$10,400

King Felix seems to be back atop his throne with 4 consecutive Quality Starts and 30 strikeouts over his last 4 appearances. He’s pitched in a couple of tough spots during that span and will now face a strikeout-prone Brewers team at Safeco Field, where he’s clearly grown comfortable with a 2.81 ERA and .218 BAA over the past 3 seasons. He’s hardly faced these Brewers, but is holding current batters to a .219 batting average with just 7 singles allowed and 12 strikeouts over 35 career plate appearances. Additionally, the Mariners (-230) are huge favorites tonight with weak RHP Wily Peralta going for Milwaukee and that gives Felix even more upside.

Value Play:

Aaron Sanchez: (TOR) @ CLE DK:$7,400/FD:$8,700

The Blue Jays are trying to space out his starts a little more, but there's no real restrictions on Sanchez, as he's gone 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 outings and remains a rock solid performer. He's worth a look in cash games at this price tag despite drawing a tough matchup against a dangerous Indians lineup, because he's sporting a 21.5% K-Rate while holding LHB to a weak .232 batting average and .298 wOBA this season and therefore matches up well against the lefty-heavy Tribe. He's held current Indians to just 6 hits (.231 average) and 1 XBH over 31 career plate appearances and is generally stringy with a 2.40 ERA and 2.75 FIP on the road this season, so it's surprising to see him check in at this moderate price tag on DK.

Longshot Pitcher:

Robbie Ray: (ARI) @ SD DK:$10,300/FD:$8,300

Ray has been a strikeout machine lately and he's priced accordingly on DraftKings, but checks in at a moderate price tag on FD this evening. This in spite of the fact that he's facing one of the worst offensive teams in MLB history at a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Padres are sporting the lowest collective batting average (.239) with the second highest K-Rate (24.5%) in the Majors this year and they've been even worse with a .226 batting average and league-low .299 wOBA over the last 30 days. While Ray struggled in his last outing against the Padres at hitter-friendly Chase Field, he posted a Quality Start in his sole trip to Petco Park over his short career and he's flashing plenty of upside with an 11.79 K/9 ratio over his last 10 appearances.

Batters

Catcher:

Sandy Leon: (BOS) @ DET DK: $3,500/FD: $3,300

Leon is still relatively cheap on DraftKings given his floor/ceiling combination lately and he's definitely worth a look in tonight's matchup. The Red Sox will face a young LH starter in Daniel Norris, who is lucky to only be sporting a 3.47 ERA with a .309 BAA and 1.67 WHIP over 6 appearances this year. He certainly could struggle against a Boston team that ranks atop the MLB with a collective .282 batting average against lefties this season, and a backstop in Leon that is batting .444 with 4 doubles and 4 HR over 45 at-bats against LHP on the year. Leon's been very hot with a .452 batting average over his last 9 appearances and he's a strong cash game play at this price tag.

Potential Value

Yadier Molina ($3500/$3100) is steadily producing for the Cardinals and remains a solid cash game play against RHP Jeremy Hellickson.

Longshot

Nick Hundley ($3800/$3000) is definitely worth a look at Coors Field if he’s starting against new Cubs LHP Mike Montgomery.

First Base:

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ SD DK:$5,400/FD:$3,900

Goldschmidt stayed hot with a single, 3 walks and a SB to produce double-digit FPs in a third consecutive outing last night and for some reason he’s a notch cheaper on FanDuel ahead of tonight’s plus matchup. The D’Backs slugger will have the platoon advantage against LHP Clayton Richard, who has been lit up to the tune of a .325 BAA and 1.90 WHIP this year while struggling in his sole appearance at Petco Park. He’s a back-end starter and the 6th man through a weak Padres rotation, which almost makes Richard a sacrificial lamb against a D’Backs squad that’s sporting the highest wOBA (.351) and ISO Mark (.207) in the Majors against lefties. Goldschmidt continues to rake with a .344 batting average and .446 wOBA against LHP this season and he’s 5-for-14 over a limited sample of at-bats against Richard.

Potential Value

Miguel Cabrera ($3800/$3900) is certainly under priced on DraftKings ahead of a plus matchup against struggling Red Sox LHP Drew Pomeranz.

Longshot

I like Edwin Encarnacion ($4700/$4100) as a strong tournament play to consider with the Blue Jays facing vulnerable RHP Josh Tomlin on the road.

Second Base:

Brandon Phillips: (CIN) vs. LAD DK:$4,700/FD:$2,700

Phillips logged another multi-hit game last night- his 9th over his last 12 starts- and yet he remains relatively cheap on FanDuel ahead of another solid matchup. Tonight the Dodgers are starting LHP Brett Anderson, who was lit up by the Pirates in his sole start of 2016 and seems to be less than one hundred percent due to a wrist injury. Phillips is hitting a solid .292 against the platoon this year and has been crushing all pitchers with a .434 batting average this month and a .392 wOBA since the ASB, so give him a look for salary relief on FD.

Potential Value

Kolten Wong ($2800/$2300) would be a risky play, but he’s worth a look as a salary relief play on DK with the platoon advantage against Hellickson.

Longshot

Brian Dozier ($4500/$3800) is en fuego once again and he has great career splits against Royals SP Ian Kennedy.

Third Base:

Kyle Seager: (SEA) vs. MIL DK:$4,900/FD:$3,500

The Mariners are an elite stacking option tonight against vulnerable RHP Wily Peralta, who has been generally awful over the past couple of seasons, but struggled in particular against the platoon. The Brewers SP is allowing LHB to hit .313 with a .393 wOBA this season after allowing LHB to post a .376 wOBA last year. He’s posting a 6.00 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 17.6% HR/FB ratio overall this season and he’ll have to hit the road tonight after posting his first few solid starts of the year in early August. Seager is one of the more dangerous lefties in Seattle’s lineup with a .316 batting average and .398 wOBA against RHP this year and he’s been rolling with a .341/.391/.610 slash line to average 11.3 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances.

Potential Value

Alex Bregman ($3900/$3100) is suddenly raking for the Astros and he will be worth a look tonight against Orioles RHP Chris Tillman.

Longshot

Eugenio Suarez ($4600/$2900) is worth a look as part of a more affordable stack of Reds on FanDuel tonight against LHP Brett Anderson.

Shortstop:

Xander Bogaerts: (BOS) @ DET DK:$4,200/FD:$3,400

He’s not necessarily the sexy play at this position, but the price is right for Bogaerts on both main DFS sites if you’re looking for a consistent option. The Red Sox RHB is back on track with 9 hits over his last 8 appearances and he’s a good bet for some production against LHP Daniel Norris. We mentioned how Boston leads the Majors in batting against lefties, while Bogaerts is hitting .320 against the platoon to bolster that impressive total. He matches up well against the slow-throwing young lefty in a Tigers uniform and is worth using until his price tag rises again.

Potential Value

Jhonny Peralta ($3400/$3200) is a solid cash game option at this price tag on DraftKings ahead of a solid matchup against RHP Jeremy Hellickson.

Longshot

Jonathan Villar ($3600/$3400 as 3B on FD) is temptingly cheap once again because the Brewers are facing an elite SP, but he’s worth a look as a GPP play at the very least against King Felix.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) @ ATL DK:$5,000/FD:$4,000 as SS

You can’t necessarily go wrong with Bryce Harper at the same price tag on DK or as the elite OF option you want to pay up for on FanDuel tonight, but Turner is definitely worth a look as the head of a Nationals stack against rookie Tyrell Jenkins. The Braves young RHP has been up and down this year as you would expect, but was recently lit up for 7 ER in a start at Washington, as Turner led the way with a double and single from the leadoff spot in that contest. The rookie RHB has been red hot with a .362 batting average and 5 SB over his last 10 appearances while he’s batting .353 on the road throughout his young career and has tons of upside in a matchup against a RHP that’s allowing RHB to post a .366 wOBA this season.

Marcell Ozuna: (MIA) @ PIT DK:$3,700/FD:$3,600

He's been extremely cheap at different points over the last couple of weeks despite the fact that Ozuna is slowly breaking out of a lengthy slump with consistent production. The Marlins slugger has hit safely in 6 consecutive appearances with 2 doubles and 3 HR during that span and he draws a decent matchup tonight against Pirates RHP Chad Kuhl. The rookie has found success by pounding the strike zone against some of weaker offensive teams, but he might run into trouble if he's too aggressive while facing the free-swinging Marlins. Ozuna boasts a 38.2% Hard Contact Rate with a career-low 42.3% GB Rate this year so he should be able to lace some line drives off Kuhl and avoid grounding out harmlessly.

Odubel Herrera: (PHI) vs. STL DK:$4,600/FD:$2,700

Herrera just flashed uncharacteristic upside with a HR, single and BB to produce 27.9 FD points last night, but that doesn't mean he can provide a solid floor at this modest price tag. He's nearly 2K more expensive on DraftKings because of the plus matchup he draws tonight against rookie RHP Luke Weaver, who is making his second career start after going just 4 innings at Wrigley Field the other week, but is under priced on the other main DFS site. Herrera is batting .303 with a .364 wOBA and 15 SB off RHP this season and he's certainly worth a look as a cheap option to stack against the Cards rookie.

Potential Values

Alex Gordon ($3800/$2900) is hot enough right now to consider him in a LvL matchup against struggling Twins southpaw Hector Santiago.

Keon Broxton ($3200/$2900) is worth a look in tournament formats even though he’s up against King Felix tonight, because all he needs is one SB to exceed value.

Paulo Orlando ($3700/$2900) has been ice cold over his last few appearances but could snap that streak in a plus matchup against LHP Hector Santiago.


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