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Plays of the Day
Value: Robbie Ray might be the best per dollar option tonight and he’s under priced on FanDuel. The D’Backs LHP is coming off the best performance of his short career after posting 13 Ks while spinning 7 innings of one-run ball in San Diego last week, and is sporting a .216 BAA with a 2.75 FIP and 12.45 K/9 ratio since the ASB. Tonight Ray draws a great matchup at home against a Braves team that's sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.293) in the Majors and is even more vulnerable with a .286 wOBA and 20.8% K-Rate when facing LHP this season.
Fade: J.A. Happ has posted solid numbers over his last several starts but he faces an Angels team that should be brimming with confidence after winning in Toronto last night. The Halos are sporting the 6th highest collective batting average (.269) with the lowest K-Rate (16.4%) in the Majors against LHP, so this matchup is not ideal.
- Slight chance of delays in St. Louis tonight.
- Diamondbacks hosting RHP Matt Wisler
- Nationals visiting RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
- Blue Jays hosting RHP Jered Weaver
- Mariners visiting RHP Anthony Ranaudo
- Pirates visiting RHP Wily Peralta
Longshot Stack: Rangers hosting RHP Josh Tomlin
Max Scherzer: (WAS) vs. BAL DK:$11,600/FD:$10,900
Despite his relatively weak numbers over his last 2 appearances, Scherzer is unquestionably the SP with the most upside on tonight’s short slate. He’s facing an Orioles lineup that’s been boom or bust lately with a modest .248 batting average as a team over the last 30 days and the O’s are strikeout-prone with a 21.8% K-Rate on the year. They’re also sporting a ridiculous 31.4% K-Rate with 50 strikeouts over 159 combined plate appearances in their careers against Scherzer, and hitting just .245 with a collective .307 wOBA against the filthy RHP. His struggles at Coors Field are understandable and you can possible chalk up a weak start in Atlanta to a lack of concentration, but we should see Scherzer at his sharpest in this crosstown rivalry game.
Robbie Ray: (ARI) vs. ATL DK:$10,400/FD:$8,800
Ray might be the best per dollar option on tonight's short slate and he remains relatively under priced on FanDuel. The young LHP is coming off the best performance of his short career after posting 13 Ks and allowing just 1 ER over 7 dominant innings in San Diego last week, and is sporting a .216 BAA with a 2.75 FIP and 12.45 K/9 ratio since the ASB. Tonight Ray draws a great matchup at home against a Braves team that's sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.293) in the Majors and is even more vulnerable with a .286 wOBA and 20.8% K-Rate when facing LHP this season. Ray is posting impressive splits with a 2.27 FIP and 30.7% K-Rate in LvL matchups this year, so he should do just fine against Atlanta's lefty-heavy lineup.
Ross Stripling: (LAD) vs. SF DK:$5,300/FD:$7,100
If you're looking for a relatively safe value play that isn't going to destroy your lineups at a modest price tag, Stripling might be the best option tonight. The Dodgers rookie is back in the Majors and has posted a solid 3.16 ERA with a .225 BAA over 6 appearances (3 starts) since rejoining the big league club. His strikeout numbers leave a lot to be desired, but Stripling flashed some upside against these Giants by spinning a no-hitter through 7.1 IP in just his second MLB appearance much earlier this year. The Dodgers (-116) have owned their rivals during this series and they're favored once again with struggling LHP Matt Moore slated to start for the visitors.
James Paxton: (SEA) @ CWS DK:$9,700/FD:$7,300
Paxton is a very appealing GPP option on FanDuel at this price tag considering the likelihood that earns a big FP bonus with a Win tonight. The White Sox are sending vulnerable young RHP Anthony Ranaudo to the mound, which is part of the reason that the Mariners (-153) are road favorites at Chicago’s Cellular Field. Paxton certainly has upside in his own right with a 2.97 ERA, .218 BAA and 0.93 WHIP over 5 appearances since the ASB, and his strikeout numbers have started to rise again with 6+ Ks in each of his last 4 outings. The White Sox are struggling offensively right now and they could certainly lay a dud against this deceptive lefty.
Yadier Molina: (STL) vs. NYM DK: $3,400/FD: $2,600
Molina has been raking over the past couple of months with a .358 batting average and .392 OBP since the ASB and he's a very solid cash game option tonight against Mets RHP Seth Lugo. The rookie is making just the 2nd start of his career after faring relatively well in San Francisco last Friday, but Molina and the savvy Cardinals could make life more difficult for him. With three hits in each of his last 2 appearances, Molina could serve as a prime addition to this offensive stack if his teammates rally around him at home tonight.
Francisco Cervelli ($3700/$2800) is another solid cash game option to consider against weak Brewers RHP Wily Peralta.
Welington Castillo ($4200/$3000) stayed hot in a slugfest last night and he draws another plus matchup at home this evening against sophomore RHP Matt Wisler.
Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) vs. ATL DK:$4,900/FD:$4,000
He’s flashed tremendous upside in 2 of his last 3 starts with a combined 6 H, 2 HR and a SB during those contests to produce a whopping 55 DK points, and we could see Goldy touch his ceiling again this evening. Tonight, the Braves will start young RHP Matt Wisler, who is sporting a rough 7.71 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP and .328 BAA over his last 10 appearances. He’s struggled on the road all year and has coughed up at least 5 ER in 4 consecutive outings, while the D’Backs only trail the Rockies in terms of collective wOBA (.332) in their home ballpark this year. Goldschmidt is hitting .309 with a .975 OPS and he’s launched 14 of his 20 homers at Chase Field this year, so he’s an elite option to consider against Wisler, who is coughing up a 2.35 HR/9 ratio on the road against RHB.
Adam Lind ($3300/$2600) is worth a look as part of a Mariners stack against struggling young RHP Anthony Ranaudo.
Edwin Encarnacion ($5000/$4300) is swinging a hot bat and is clearly worth a look against vulnerable veteran Jered Weaver, while Justin Smoak ($3600/$3000) could serve as a cheap addition to a Blue Jays stack if he starts tonight.
Jean Segura: (ARI) vs. ATL DK:$5,300/FD:$3,600
Segura and Goldschmidt are akin to Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun for the Brewers, in that this speed/power combination is always an elite mini-stack to consider when their respective teams face a weak SP. Unlike Villar, Segura’s price tag doesn’t seem to fluctuate on FanDuel, but remains fixed in the mid 3,000s and he’s clearly worth consideration on that site this evening. The dynamic dual threat is hitting .442 with 2 HR and 5 SB over his last 10 appearances and he prefers RvR matchups with a .327 batting average and .370 wOBA against RHP this season. Segura is hitting .330 at Chase Field this year and could serve as the head of a productive stack this evening.
Josh Harrison ($3900/$3100) or Adam Frazier ($3700/$2500 as SS on FD) should draw consideration depending on their placement in the Pirates lineup against weak RHP Wily Peralta.
Daniel Murphy ($5300/$4000) is understandably expensive because he’s a great candidate to dong off Orioles homer-prone RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
Jake Lamb: (ARI) vs. ATL DK:$4,700/FD:$3,400
This is probably only a play if you’re going all in on a D’Backs stack in a tournament format, but Lamb is worth a look as a longshot in his own right. He’s been a streaky hitter all year and he snapped a long 0-fer stretch with 5 hits, including 3 doubles and a HR to produce 42 DK points over his last 2 outings, so he might be at the start of a hot run. We’ve already covered how Braves RHP Matt Wisler has struggled lately, and he’s been vulnerable against the platoon throughout his career, as he allowed LHB to post a .419 wOBA during his rookie year and is posting a 5.38 FIP with a 1.50 WHIP against lefties this season. Like most Diamondbacks, Lamb is posting much better numbers at home and he’s almost exclusively productive against weak righties.
Jose Ramirez ($3400/$3200) is cheap on DK because he draws a tough matchup against Rangers LHP Cole Hamels, but he’s still worth a look given his upside.
Justin Turner ($4200/$3600) is available at a slight discount because he’s been more productive against RHP, but I’d still consider him in most formats against LHP Matt Moore and the Giants.
Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ TEX DK:$3,400/FD:$3,600
Like fellow Indians switch-hitter Jose Ramirez, Lindor is dirt cheap on DraftKings tonight ahead of a tough matchup against Cole Hamels. While he’s 0-for-4 in a small sample of at-bats against the capable LHP, Lindor is hitting .318 as a RHB this season and he’s been hot over the past couple of months with a .327 batting average since the break. The launching pad known as Globe Life Ballpark is a great place to hit and two of the hottest offensive teams in the Majors meet there tonight in a game with a 9-run O/U despite Hamels’ solid track record. With the Indians sporting the fourth-highest collective batting average (.275) against lefties this season, they represent a dark horse stacking option tonight with Lindor and Ramirez emerging as salary relief plays on DK.
Jhonny Peralta ($3900/$3000) remains a solid value play in a good matchup against Mets rookie Seth Lugo.
Jose Reyes ($4200/$3400) let owners down with a rare goose egg last night, but he’s a boom or bust option this evening against boom or bust veteran RHP Adam Wainwright.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. BAL DK:$4,900/FD:$4,100 as SS
This kid is simply a machine in terms of his production. Turner logged 4 more hits last night and was once again left on base quite often by his teammates, so he’s bound to flash a bit more upside eventually with a .378 batting average over his last 10 appearances. Tonight the Nationals are a prime stacking option against RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, who is sporting a 6.94 ERA with a horrendous 1.91 WHIP on the year and struggling even more with a 7.34 ERA to go 1-6 over 10 appearances on the road. He’s been working out of the bullpen lately with little effectiveness and is clearly vulnerable as a starter. It’s also important to note that Jimenez has coughed up a ridiculous 195 stolen bases at a 79 percent success rate over his 11-year-career, which raises the upside of a speedster like Turner.
Mike Trout: (LAA) @ TOR DK:$4,700/FD:$4,000
Trout just led the Angels to a win in Toronto over one of the Blue Jays solid starters and he’ll look to repeat that feat with deceptive southpaw J.A. Happ on the mound tonight. The superstar is 2-for-8 with 2 doubles and 3 walks in his career against Happ, which indicates that he’s at least seeing the ball well against that LH starter. Trout is hot right now with a .310 batting average and he’s drawn an astonishing 11 walks over his last 10 appearances to post a .512 OBP during that span. His ability to get on base creates an excellent floor and his speed adds to his upside.
Hunter Pence: (SF) @ LAD DK:$3,700/FD:$2,800
Even if you're willing to use Stripling in cash games tonight, Pence is a fine option that can hedge your bets, as the Dodgers rookie is bound to give up some production. Pence managed to log two hits in a brutal matchup against deceptive LHP Rich Hill last night, so he's definitely worth a look in a more favorable situation, because he's hitting .282 against righties this year and is sporting a higher average in RvR matchups throughout the past several seasons. Stripling is allowing RHB to hit .284 with a .339 wOBA and 37.7% Hard Contact Rate this year and Pence is starting to find his stride after a long stint on the DL.
Matt Joyce ($4500/$2200) is almost free on FanDuel ahead of a plus matchup against RHP Wily Peralta.
Kike Hernandez ($3700/$2700) is worth a look as a RHB with the platoon advantage against Giants southpaw Matt Moore.
Adam Jones ($3500/$3300) is worth a look in GPP formats because of his fantastic career splits (11-for-22, 3 HR) against Scherzer, as he might lead off for the Orioles tonight.
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