Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken (U. So. Miss HC)
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (TB OC 2015) (New HC in 2016)
Head Coach Involvement: Koetter was promoted to head coach with the departure of Lovie Smith. He’s been an OC for defensive head coaches in the past (Smith, Del Rio) so it will be interesting to see how he calls a game without anyone keeping him in check. Koetter will be calling the plays on offense this year.
Offensive Basis: I expect to see heavy lead RB usage this year, just like last year, along with a vertical passing game that features 2 WRs and includes TEs. Todd Monken has said he wants explosive plays this year (who doesn’t?), and he wants to avoid negative plays. We’ll see if this is enough of a coherent philosophy to produce results.
Where the OC comes from: Monken was the head coach at the Southern Miss for the previous three years. Before that Monken and Koetter worked together under Jack Del Rio with the Jaguars.
2015 RB Reception Total Rank: #11
2015 WR Receptions Total Rank: #26
2015 TE Receptions Total Rank: #27
2015 QB FF Rank: #17
2015 RB FF Rank: #6
2015 WR FF Rank: #26
2015 TE FF Rank: #18
2014 RB Reception Total Rank: #32
2014 WR Receptions Total Rank: #16
2014 TE Receptions Total Rank: #28
2014 QB FF Rank: #21
2014 RB FF Rank: #24
2014 WR FF Rank: #20
2014 TE FF Rank: #25
2016 Offensive Player Outlook Overall: Jameis Winston returns for his second year in the NFL, and should improve on his rookie campaign. He’s a low-end starter or a great backup for right now unless he can reduce mistakes and duplicate or add to his running TD tally (6 last year). I like his weapons but do not love him as a player because he makes too many mistakes for my liking, but he can produce fantasy stats, especially if this offense becomes more aggressive!
Winston has got some excellent WR weapons in twin towers, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Evans has top 10 WR potential, but we need to see him catch more than 3 TDs this year. I think he does and is a solid late second round pick in most leagues. Jackson is still a solid mid to late round receiver who should have some nice games. The top two studs leave little for a WR No. 3 in this offense, and even an injury opens little opportunity because the other top WR benefits most. However, they do have Donteea Dye, who I would expect to be next man up here.
Doug Martin should be the focus of the running game and but does not catch the ball enough for PPR greatness. Martin loses catches to Charles Sims and also loses rushing TDs to Winston. These factors limit his upside, so I’m not crazy about his late third round ADP but would draft him for value in the mid to late fourth.
Be wary of the TE position because Austin Seferian-Jenkins seems to be slower in his development that I’d hoped because there is room in this offense to make him fantasy relevant. However, he may not dominate touches at TE this year because they also have Cameron Brate and also Brandon Myers lower on the depth chart. No need to draft these guys IMHO, just wait and see here.
Sleeper/Value Players: Charles Sims is someone to keep an eye on because I like his weekly PPR upside and floor. Sims will need a Martin injury to see the volume necessary to be a fantasy star or even a full-time starter. However, I like that he is a good value in the early ninth rounds of most drafts.