Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

PGA DFS: The Deutsche Championship (Preview)

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One week down on the march to the Tour Championship and Patrick Reed comes away with a victory The Barclays last week. We are down to the top 100 (well, not Danny Willett and who knows about Henrik Stenson) in the FedEx Cup standings this week for the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston.

Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they offer daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour.

Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap.

Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I'll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I'll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs.

The key to cashing in Daily Fantasy Golf is getting golfers who make the cut.

You can cash if you get at least four golfers who make the cut though it can be tough with just four. With five (or if you are lucky six) you are nearly assured of cashing. So, you'll see some focus on making cuts while trying to balance upside for those top 10 finishes everyone is chasing.

Tournament Stop

This week we enter the second week of FedEx playoffs. This tournament runs starts on Friday and runs through Monday to take advantage of the Labor Day holiday. We are now down to 100 eligible players as we continue to whittle the field down to the final 30 who will compete for the top prize.  

The Tour heads to TPC Boston in Norton, MA south of Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship. The course is a par 71, 7,241-yard golf track with 58 bunkers where water comes into play on about half of the holes.

The Tour doesn’t have a lot of par 71s on the docket, but the TPC Boston is one. It has three par 5s, 11 par 4s, and four par 3s. The course was redesigned in 2007, so any results before the redesign aren’t nearly as useful even though the tournament has been held here since 2003. And, the cut is still top 70 and ties so more than 70% of the starters will see the weekend. You can take some risks!

Recent Tournament History

TPC Boston has been the host since 2003, but the major re-design by Gil Hanse (with Brad Faxon consulting) in 2007 means we only care about results since then. Hanse also redesigned the Blue Monster Course at Trump National Doral (the site of the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship) in 2013.  So, perhaps we’ll take a gander at the leaderboard for the last three years.

He’s also redesigned many other courses (the East Course at Winged Foot and Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach among them). Starting in 2012, he also worked on the restoration of Ridgewood Country Club in New Jersey (site of the Barclays in 2014). Finally, he was the designer for the course used for the Rio Olympics. So, there aren’t a ton of Hanse courses out there, and many of them are restoration projects so we’ll tread lightly looking for “Hanse” experts.

We have enough recent history to be able to rely on historical tournament data this week.

Finished in the top 20 each of the last three years: Jason Day

Finished in the top 20 two of the previous three years: Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar, Henrik Stenson, Hunter Mahan, Keegan Bradley, Kevin Stadler

First timers: Jon Curran, Derek Fathauer, Branden Grace, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Hadwin, Sung Kang, Smylie Kaufman, Patton Kizzire, Jamie Lovemark, Patrick Rodgers, Tyrone Van Aswegen, Harold Varner III, and,  Si Woo Kim

Current Form Review

Each week, we’ll take a look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA and European Tours. We will lump the Olympic results into the European section again this week.   

Statistical Report

Where should we focus our statistical microscope this week?  

Par 5 Scoring Average (P5SA): There are three par 5s, and that is where a lot of the scoring will come from this week. We will need to see par 5 scoring on our golfers’ resumes.

Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (P4E450-500) – Hello old friend.  Six of the 11 par 4s on the course fall between 451 and 495 yards. So, we want golfers who can score (or at least make pars) regularly on par 4s of this distance.

Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green (SG: APP) – SG: APP is a part of SG: T2G so there is a bit of double counting going on here. That said, we’re going to see nearly 75% of all shots from between 150 and 200 yards this week.

For more on how SG: APP, check out this primer on all the Strokes Gained stats.

Scoring Average (SA) – We’ll also look at overall scoring average as we’ll need players who can score. The winner of the tourney will probably be between 15 and 20-under for the week.

Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 yards (P3E200-225) – Our tiebreaker for the week as we have four par 3s on the course and they range from 187 to 231 yards. So, the range isn’t perfect, but it’s close enough to use for tie breaking purposes.

I’m focused on 2016 stats of course, but will certainly refer to 2015 if needed.

And of course, we examine Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with more weight on SG:T2G again this week.

Weather Report

As always, check back on the weather Wednesday to see the final forecast. This week it looks like the weather won’t be an issue at all as the only “concern” is for rain showers on Thursday morning. The wind should be manageable, and temperatures likely won’t cross 80 degrees for a high until Sunday.


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