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Scouting the MLB DFS, Wednesday August 31

We concentrate on tonight's 9-game slate of MLB action and bring you the best DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel in today's breakdown

Plays of the Day

Value: Jose Peraza comes highly recommended as a punt play with upside on FanDuel and he’s a quality mid-tier option on DK at either position tonight. The Reds young utility man returned from a one-game absence and showed no ill effects from a facial contusion, as he went 4-for-4 and logged his 13th stolen base of the season to produce 19 DK points. He’s come out of nowhere to hit .500 with 4 doubles, a HR and 3 SB over his last 10 appearances and he’ll face a weak RHP tonight in Ricky Nolasco, who is sporting a 5.24 ERA and .287 BAA on the season.

Fade: Josh Donaldson flashed tremendous upside earlier this week and his price tag remains sky high because of that, but he doesn’t seem like a great GPP play this evening against Yovani Gallardo. The Orioles RHP keeps the ball down in the zone and depends on getting ground ball outs, while Donaldson is a solid 5-for-13 in his career against Gallardo, but has logged just 1 XBH during those meetings.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Baltimore if storms hit the stadium this evening. Strong winds expected to be blowing in from LF in Cleveland and Chicago (Cubs).

Stackable Menu

  1. Cubs hosting RHP Ryan Vogelsong
  2. Nationals visiting LHP Adam Morgan
  3. Indians hosting LHP Pat Dean
  4. Reds visiting RHP Ricky Nolasco
  5. Cardinals visiting RHP Matt Garza

Longshot Stack: Mets hosting RHP David Phelps


Pitchers

Two Studs

Corey Kluber: (CLE) vs. MIN DK:$11,300/FD:$10,800

Kluber stands alone as the sole elite option on a short evening slate. Of course, he’d be worth consideration regardless of the circumstances, because he’s been pitching like an ace for the past several months with a 2.32 ERA and a 9.38 K/9 ratio since the start of June. He’s been slightly more consistent at home and will face these Twins for the first time since May 14, so he should be able to post better numbers given how he’s utilized his arsenal in recent weeks. Current Twins are batting just .209 (38-for-182) with a whopping 27% K-Rate in their careers against Kluber and this lineup is generally strikeout-prone with a 22% K-Rate on the year.

Ian Kennedy: (KC) vs. NYY DK:$9,400/FD:$8,900

Posting quality numbers in Boston against an elite Red Sox lineup that leads the Majors in batting (.305) at their home ball park is very impressive, and it indicates that Kennedy is firing on all cylinders right now. He's now won three consecutive starts for the red-hot Royals and prior to coughing up 2 ER at Fenway, he had allowed a total of just 3 ER with 28 Ks over his previous 5 outings. Kennedy has been lights out at home with a .217 BAA and a 9.44 K/9 ratio this season and he's held current Yankees to a modest .269 batting average with 22 strikeouts over 104 at-bats in his career. Give him a look as one of the hotter pitchers on a hot team.

Value Play:

Bartolo Colon: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$6,700/FD:$7,600

Colon tends to find success in spacious ballparks, which might explain why he’s sporting an excellent 2.28 ERA over his last 5 starts (35.6 IP) at Marlins Park and is posting quality numbers at New York’s Citi Field as well. The lineup he’ll face tonight is far weaker than he’s dealt with in the past, because Giancarlo Stanton (groin) is inactive, while Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna are badly slumping, so he’s worth a look as a cheap cash game option on either main DFS site. Meanwhile, the Mets (-113) offense is coming around and matches up well against RHP David Phelps, who tends to struggle against the platoon. Colon continues to defy Father Time by posting Quality Starts and throwing over 100 pitches in 3 of his last 4 outings, as he’s remained strong late in the season.

Longshot Pitcher:

Luke Weaver: (STL) @ MIL DK:$4,500/FD:$6,800

It's expected that the Cardinals will get the most out of their young pitchers and that's eventually coming to fruition with regards to Weaver. After a couple of bumpy starts on the road, the rookie RHP was brilliant in his last outing, holding the Athletics to 1 ER while striking out 7 over 6 strong innings of work. His upside is around the 25 DK points he put up last week, but at this modest price tag on DK, he'll exceed value with any sort of Quality Start. The Brewers aren't a bad matchup considering the fact that they strike out more often than any other team in the Majors (26.7% K-Rate) this year and Weaver should finally be confident enough to challenge those hitters tonight.

Batters

Catcher:

Wilson Ramos: (WAS) @ PHI DK: $4,100/FD: $3,200

Ramos is breaking out of a lengthy slump with 5 hits over his last 4 appearances and he’s worth a look in any format tonight with the platoon advantage against Phillies LHP Adam Morgan. The oft-maligned sophomore SP is 1-8 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the year and he’s been even worse with a .325 BAA on the road this season. He was decent in his two outings against the Nationals this year, but gave up a homer to Ramos in his sole meeting with this team at Citizens Bank Park, which has a very high HR Factor. Ramos is now 3-for-5 with 5 RBI over a small sample of at-bats against Morgan and hitting .311 with a .403 wOBA against the platoon overall, so he has plenty of upside as part of a Nats stack this evening.

Potential Value

Miguel Montero ($3200/$3000) should crack the Cubs lineup tonight with the platoon advantage and positive career splits against RHP Ryan Vogelsong.

Longshot

Cameron Rupp ($3200/$2700) is struggling lately, but he’s an intriguing GPP play with the platoon advantage against inconsistent LHP Gio Gonzalez.

First Base:

Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) vs. PIT DK:$5,300/FD:$4,300

While ancient Pirates RHP Ryan Vogelsong has been decent over his last several starts, he’s still extremely vulnerable against an elite lineup on the road tonight. In particular, Cubs lefties should be all over the 39-year-old, who is allowing LHB to post a .376 wOBA with a 1.81 WHIP and 33.3% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon this year. Rizzo is incredibly 4-for-8 with a double and 3 homers in his career against Vogelsong, while his solid 11.4% BB-Rate and the right-hander’s 5.57 BB/9 ratio against LHB this season indicates that Rizzo has a solid floor to go along with that lofty ceiling as the potential heart of a Cubs stack.

Potential Value

Josh Bell ($3700/$2900) is putting up great numbers for the Pirates and will be worth a look if he’s starting tonight.

Longshot

Brandon Moss ($5300/$3600) actually sat out last night’s matchup against Wily Peralta, but he has fantastic career splits (7-for-15, HR) in his career against tonight’s starter in RHP Matt Garza.

Second Base:

Cesar Hernandez: (PHI) vs. WAS DK:$3,800/FD:$2,600

It's hard to understand why Hernandez is this cheap ahead of a really solid matchup against struggling LHP Gio Gonzalez. The Phillies switch hitter has been more effective with a .333 batting average and .378 OBP as a RHB this season and he's a solid 4-for-16 so far in his career against Gio. The Nats SP has been better of late, but he's still allowing consistent production with 21 H, 5 BB and 11 ER allowed over his last 4 outings, so consider Hernandez as a cash game option with a decent floor as indicated by his .396 OBP since the ASB.

Potential Value

Brandon Phillips ($3300/$3000) has been a steady source of production and he draws another plus matchup tonight against Angels RHP Ricky Nolasco.

Longshot

Ryan Schimpf ($4600/$3000) is flying under the radar because he plays for San Diego, but he’s been crushing baseballs lately and will have the platoon advantage against vulnerable RHP Matt Wisler.

Third Base:

Jose Reyes: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$3,700/FD:$3,100

Reyes continues to rake with 4 more hits last night and he’s now sporting a .349/.391/.512 slash line over his last 10 appearances. He's certainly worth strong consideration at this discounted price tag in tonight's matchup against Marlins SP David Phelps. The journeyman right-hander has consistently struggled against the platoon, allowing LHB to post a .327 wOBA throughout his career and that happens to be the mark that he's giving up with a 1.61 WHIP and 4.79 FIP against lefties this year. If he allows Reyes and the rest of the lefty-heavy Mets lineup to reach base, they'll take some chances running on J.T. Realmuto and Phelps, who has a relatively slow delivery that could be exploited by a veteran like Reyes.

Potential Value

Martin Prado ($3200/$3000) does have great career splits against Bartolo Colon and he could reach base a few times even if the rest of the Marlins offense struggles at Citi Field.

Longshot

Kris Bryant ($5500/$4300) is the premier option at 3B tonight if you can afford him and a virtual must-play if you want heavy exposure to a Cubs stack against Vogelsong.

Shortstop:

Francisco Lindor: (CLE) vs. MIN DK:$4,200/FD:$3,500

It’s déjà vu for Lindor and the Indians tonight, as they’ll face an inexperienced LHP one night after tagging rookie southpaw Andrew Albers for 4 runs over just 2 innings of work. Pat Dean has a bit more experience, but he’s sporting a 6.25 ERA while allowing RHB to hit .333 with a .410 wOBA this season and certainly doesn’t match up well against a powerful Indians lineup. Like most young pitchers, Dean has struggled on the road, while Lindor continued to excel at Progressive Field with a couple of extra-base hits last night, as he’s now batting .358 with a .917 OPS at home this season and is still hitting .316 as a RHB.

Potential Value

Jhonny Peralta ($4000/$3000) continues to produce for the Cardinals and he happens to have great career splits (18-for-40, 2 HR) in his career against Brewers veteran Matt Garza.

Longshot

Asdrubal Cabrera ($3800/$2700) is on quite a heater right now and he’ll be another Mets batter to consider with the platoon advantage against Phelps.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) @ PHI DK:$5,100/FD:$4,100

He might not have as much upside in terms of his speed against a LH starter, but Turner is still a very strong play to consider as the head of a Nationals stack. The rookie is on fire with a .422 batting average over his last 10 appearances and he’s been just as deadly with 9 SB and 15 RBI over 23 appearances on the road this season. Morgan has not lasted too long in many of his starts this year and the Phillies bullpen is below average to say the least, so feel free to roll out Turner despite the initial matchup, because he’s been a machine lately and is always a good bet to produce double-digit FPs.

Alex Gordon: (KC) vs. NYY DK:$4,700/FD:$2,700

The Royals are on quite a hot streak as the look to sneak into the A.L. playoff picture and defend their World Series crown and Gordon is one of several batters that are turning up in an effort to make that miracle push. He's sporting a .381 wOBA during August and has hit safely in 18 of his last 20 appearances, which makes veritably under priced on FanDuel right now. Tonight, the Royals will be worth a look as a potential stack against Yankees rookie RHP Luis Cessa, who is only making his third career start and might struggle to navigate a veteran lineup multiple times.

Jose Peraza: (CIN) @ LAA DK:$3,900/FD:$2,400 as SS

Peraza comes highly recommended as a punt play with upside on FanDuel and he’s a quality mid-tier option on DK at either position tonight. The Reds young utility man returned from a one-game absence and showed no ill effects from a facial contusion, as he went 4-for-4 and logged his 13th stolen base of the season to produce 19 DK points. He’s come out of nowhere to hit .500 with 4 doubles, a HR and 3 SB over his last 10 appearances and he’ll face a weak RHP tonight in Ricky Nolasco, who is sporting a 5.24 ERA and .287 BAA on the season.

Potential Values

Travis Jankowksi ($4200/$3000) is another Padres LHB to consider against Braves young RHP Matt Wisler.

Jayson Heyward ($3400/$3000) has struggled lately, but he’s another Cubs LHB that could take advantage of Ryan Vogelsong’s struggles against the platoon.

Jay Bruce ($3700/$3100) is a high-upside option to consider if you want to stack a few Mets bats against Marlins RHP David Phelps.


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