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Scouting the MLB DFS, Thursday September 1

We've got a small 3-game slate of MLB action tonight but you can still cash in DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Travis d'Arnaud seems to represent the best per dollar at catcher tonight. The Mets are hosting a vulnerable young RHP in Jose Urena, who is sporting a rough 5.83 ERA overall, while d'Arnaud has been producing with a .297 batting average over his last 10 appearances and he's sporting his best splits (.307 batting average) against RHP at home this season.

Fade: Anthony Rizzo is 1-for-2 with a HR in a very small sample size of at-bats against RHP Jeff Samardzija, but I like The Shark to come into Wrigley Field with a focused mind and sound body as he looks to shut down Rizzo and the Cubs lineup tonight.

Weather Report

    Chance of a delayed start in New York (Mets) due to possible showers this afternoon.

Stackable Menu

  1. Mets hosting RHP Jose Urena
  2. Giants visiting LHP Mike Montgomery
  3. Twins hosting LHP Jose Quintana

Longshot Stack: White Sox visiting RHP Ervin Santana


Pitchers

Two Studs

Jacob deGrom: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$9,000/FD:$10,000

DeGrom appears to be worth the risk on DraftKings at that price and he definitely has the most upside of the SP options on this very short slate. Sure, the Mets ace was pummeled in his last two outings against elite teams in the Giants and Cardinals, but he’s still sporting a 4.60 K/BB ratio and 3.52 FIP since the ASB. That indicates that he’s hitting his spots and simply needs to revert back to a pitcher, not a thrower, in order to handle a significantly weakened Marlins lineup. Miami will be without Giancarlo Stanton, while both Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna are slumping, and current Marlins already had posted as many Ks (27) as hits with 0 HR over 138 combined plate appearances against deGrom.

Ervin Santana: (MIN) vs. CWS DK:$9,200/FD:$7,700

As per usual, Santana is under priced on FanDuel, which makes him a very solid option on this very small slate. The Twins RHP struggled late in his start at Toronto last Saturday, but that's a brutal matchup and facing a mediocre White Sox offense at home is a much more manageable task. Prior to that rough outing, Santana had gone at least 5 innings and allowed 3 ER or fewer in an incredible 11 consecutive starts. He's posted two very solid starts against the White Sox this season and has been very solid with a .233 BAA and 1.11 WHIP over 12 home starts this season.

Value Play:

Mike Montgormery: (CHC) vs. SF DK:$4,000/FD:$5,800

He's dirt cheap because he's a converted reliever making a spot start, but this isn't Montgomery's first crack at being an MLB starter. The lanky LHP posted some great numbers for the Mariners last season, posting a 1.62 ERA with a .178 BAA and 0.90 WHIP over his first 6 starts last June. While he stumbled a bit after that, Montgomery is clearly talented enough to handle a Giants lineup that is sporting a below average .317 wOBA against LHP this season and struggling to score with 120 runs (9th fewest in MLB) over the last 30 days, as they're dealing with injuries throughout the team. The Cubs are a fantastic offensive team at home and they're more than capable of tagging predictable flamethrower Jeff Samardzija, so Montgomery might get enough run support to earn a Win if he can go at least 5 innings again.

Longshot Pitcher:

Jeff Samardzija: (SF) @ CHC DK:$8,100/FD:$8,200

Samardzija returns to Wrigley Field for the first time since being traded from the Cubs to the Giants and emotions will be running high. That’s a dangerous recipe for a boom or bust pitcher that tends to get touched up when he doesn’t locate his blazing fastball. Yet the Shark has posted 3 consecutive Quality Starts with just 16 H and 5 ER allowed during that span and he’s getting plenty of ground ball outs once again, indicating that he’s keeping the ball down in the zone. The Cubs 21.9% K-Rate against RHP is the 9th highest mark in the league and this is also a rare night in which the Southsiders aren’t throwing a borderline ace with Montgomery on the bump.

Batters

Catcher:

Travis d’Arnaud: (NYM) vs. MIA DK: $3,100/FD: $2,300

Buster Posey's price tag on DK is astronomical this evening and the other options at catcher are boom or bust, while d'Arnaud seems to represent the best per dollar value with a solid floor/ceiling combination. The Mets are hosting a vulnerable young RHP in Jose Urena, who has posted Quality Starts recently against a struggling Pirates squad and the weak Padres offense, but is sporting a rough 5.83 ERA overall and was rocked for 13 ER combined over his previous two outings. His team is coming around with Yoenis Cespedes back in the middle of the lineup and d'Arnaud has been producing with a .297 batting average over his last 10 appearances and he's sporting his best splits (.307 batting average) against RHP at home this season.

Potential Value

Kurt Suzuki ($2800/$2300) is another cheap catcher to consider as a cash game option.

Longshot

Buster Posey ($5300/$3500) is reasonably affordable on FanDuel tonight and he could stay hot in a matchup against LHP Mike Montgomery.

First Base:

Jose Abreu: (CWS) @ MIN DK:$4,400/FD:$3,400

It seems like you’re getting the Jose Abreu of last season at a discounted price tag right now considering how the White Sox slugger has gotten on track lately. He posted a .362 batting average and .442 wOBA during August and he’s reached base in 22-consuective games, which is his second lengthy on-base streak of the season. That makes him a solid cash game play despite the tough matchup, and he’s certainly held his own with 3 singles and a walk over 8 career plate appearances against Ervin Santana. Consider Abreu as the safe play and teammate Justin Morneau as a longshot to do some damage against the Twins right-hander.

Potential Value

Joe Mauer ($3200/$3200) is a solid cash game option tonight despite the LvL matchup against Quintana.

Longshot

Justin Morenau ($3100/$2700) is worth a look in GPP formats given his career splits (7-for-32, 4 HR) against Ervin Santana.

Second Base:

Brian Dozier: (PHI) vs. WAS DK:$5,200/FD:$3,700

He’ll be the chalk play on this short slate, but if Dozier connects for his fifth career homer off familiar foe Jose Quintana than you’ll wish you were on the high percentage side of his ownership. The Twins righty has launched an MLB-high 18 homers since the ASB and he’s routinely crushed LHP to the tune of a .432 wOBA and .370 ISO Mark this season. True to his overall splits, Dozier is just 11-for-43 (.256) in his career against the White Sox southpaw, but he’s flashed plenty of upside with his power in this matchup. He’s been hot lately with 4 HR, 3 doubles and 2 SB to average 12.7 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances and is justifiably expensive on that site.

Potential Value

Kelly Johnson ($3100/$2500) is worth a look as part of a platoon stack against Marlins RHP Jose Urena.

Longshot

Dee Gordon ($3700/$2800) could emerge as a great value play if Jacob deGrom struggles in a third consecutive outing.

Third Base:

Jose Reyes: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$4,400/FD:$3,300

While he disappointed with a rare goose egg in last night's matchup, Reyes is a very strong play to consider as the head of a potential Mets stack this evening. Jose Urena has generally struggled against higher-level teams this year and he's been bad against the platoon with a .308 BAA and 5.53 FIP against LHB this season. Reyes has been equally dangerous from both sides of the plate and he's only failed to produce FPs in 3 of his 34 appearances since rejoining the Mets, so give him a look as a solid cash game play at third base.

Potential Value

Trevor Plouffe ($3500/$3000) has been productive for the Twins lately and he’ll have the platoon advantage against Quintana tonight.

Longshot

Kris Bryant ($5500/$4400) is as hot as any hitter on the planet, but is still a boom or bust option depending on how Samardzija performs this evening.

Shortstop:

Asdrubal Cabrera: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$4,700/FD:$3,000

He won’t break the bank on FanDuel at this price tag and Cabrera is pretty clearly the SS with the most upside on tonight’s short slate. He’s been red-hot over the past couple of weeks and is still batting .412 after going 0-for-4 last night. We covered Urena’s struggles against the platoon and Cabrera is a dangerous switch hitter that has shown more power (.188 ISO Mark) from the left side of the plate this season and turned up his overall production with a .296 batting average and .354 wOBA since the ASB.

Potential Value

Tim Anderson ($3900/$3000) is hitting .349 over his last 10 appearances and could be solid in cash games tonight.

Longshot

Eduardo Nunez ($4700/$3200 as 3B on FD) is worth a look if you want to stack the Giants bats against Montgomery.

Outfielders:

Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) vs. MIA DK:$5,000/FD:$3,900

You can call Cespedes “Papa Fuerte” and consider him the heart of a Mets stack tonight against sophomore RHP Jose Urena. He’s been a machine since coming back from the DL with a .375/.444/.800 slash line and 5 homers over his last 10 appearances. Urena has posted a better BAA when facing RHB this year but his batted ball data is similar with a 22.2% LD Rate and 10.3% HR/FB ratio, so don’t worry about Cespedes struggling just because of the RvR matchup.

Hunter Pence: (SF) @ CHC DK:$4,300/FD:$3,200

There’s certainly a chance that these two N.L. contenders get into a slugfest tonight at Wrigley Field, which would allow Pence to flash upside, but he’s otherwise a solid stand-alone option with the platoon advantage against Montgomery. Pence is 4-for-6 with 2 BB since coming back from a mild hamstring strain and he’s flashed some power with a .359 wOBA and .247 ISO Mark against LHP this season. Give him a look as a mid-tier option on either main DFS site.

Jason Heyward: (CHC) vs. SF DK:$3,000/FD:$2,900

You can almost consider Heyward as a punt play on DraftKings given the limited options below $3K on that site. He’s broken out of nasty slump with a .325 batting average, 4 doubles and a HR over his last 10 appearances and will have the platoon advantage against Samardzija. If the Shark struggles, Heyward could jump in on a rally or two, otherwise he’s simply a play for some salary relief on this short slate.

Potential Values

Jorge Soler ($3800/$3100) is starting to produce consistently for the Cubs and he might be worth a look instead of Heyward depending on lineup construction.

Adam Eaton ($3600/$3400) is a solid value option on DK if he leads off for the White Sox tonight.

Avisail Garcia ($3000/$2800) could serve as part of a somewhat contrarian stack against Santana.


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