Plays of the Day
Value: Adrian Gonzalez is cheap on both main DFS sites and worth a look tonight against RHP Shelby Miller, who is allowing LHB to hit .325 with a .414 wOBA this season. Miller has really struggled overall and he’s posting an alarming 39.3% Hard Contact Rate with a 16.7% HR/FB ratio against the platoon this year and Gonzalez has posted great numbers (4-for-7, HR) in limited meetings with Miller throughout his career.
Fade: It’s tempting to roll with Anthoy Rizzo and the Cubs on the road tonight against Brewers SP Wily Peralta, especially when you look at Rizzo’s fantastic splits (14-for-28, 5 HR) against the RHP. But Peralta has turned around his defunct season and looked very sharp in his last outing, so it might be prudent to fade a slumping Rizzo.
- Chance of a postponement in Minnesota tonight. Slight chance of delayed start in New York (Yankees).
- Nationals hosting RHP Williams Perez
- Marlins hosting LHP Adam Morgan
- Indians hosting RHP Brad Peacock
- Dodgers hosting RHP Shelby Miller
- Reds hosting RHP Rafael Montero
Longshot Stack: Rangers visiting LHP James Paxton
Corey Kluber: (CLE) vs. HOU DK:$12,600/FD:$10,800
Kluber is rolling right now and once again stands out as the sole premier play on a slate of MLB action. He’s 7-0 with a ridiculous 1.94 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to average 26 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances and the strikeouts have been coming with a 9.78 K/9 ratio since the ASB. Tonight he’ll face one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the MLB, as the Astros are sporting the second-highest K-Rate (23.6%) in the A.L. this year. His Indians should be heavily favored with consistent punching bad Brad Peacock slated to start for visiting Houston and Kluber is more than capable of supplementing a Win with great individual numbers.
Aaron Sanchez: (TOR) @ NYY DK:$9,600/FD:$8,600
Sanchez seemed to run out of gas a little bit in August, but the Blue Jays plan to give him some extra rest before a potential playoff push helped him bounce back with an excellent start in Baltimore. Now he’ll face a Yankees team that ranks 26th in the Majors with a collective .308 wOBA and has been generally ineffective with just 10 H and 1 ER (on a HR) over 2 meetings with Sanchez this year. Toronto’s young RHP has been tough against the platoon with a 21.9% K-Rate and .235 BAA when facing LHB this year, which partially explains the struggles of a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup against him. He’s also been better on the road with a 2.53 ERA and 2.92 FIP away from Rogers Centre, so give him a look as a quality cash game option tonight.
Jose Urena: (MIA) vs. PHI DK:$5,400/FD:$5,800
It seems like a weak slate for pitchers when we’re recommending a sophomore RHP on the Marlins, but Urena has been solid in each of his last three outings and he’s facing a very weak offensive team at home. The Phillies rank dead last in terms of collective wOBA (.292) this season and they’ve also scored the fewest runs in the Majors. He’s been solid against righties with a .216 BAA and 8.51 K/9 ratio against RHB and has really struggled against lefties, but the Phillies don’t have too many dangerous platoon specialists to take advantage of those splits. Philly is also sending LHP Adam Morgan to the mound and he’s sporting the highest HR/9 ratio against RHB in the Majors, so perhaps Urena comes out on top in this matchup between bottom-feeding N.L. clubs.
Clay Buchholz: (BOS) @ SD DK:$7,900/FD:$6,000
Even if he had strung together 10 straight Quality Starts, Buchholz should be considered a longshot. Even when he’s facing arguably the worst offensive team in the Majors at the park with the lower Run Factor over the last 2 years, Buchholz is a risky option, because he simply lacks mental fortitude. Yet we have seen a lot of positives from the RHP since he moved to the Red Sox bullpen, as he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the past month (21.1 IP). Tonight he’ll face a Padres team that is posting the lowest collective batting average (.228) and second-highest K-Rate (25.1%) against RHP this season, which is why Red Sox manager John Farrell decided to give him a shot as a starter again and why you might want to consider doing the same in GPP formats.
Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $3,300/FD: $3,200
Lucroy has been under priced on DraftKings lately in some tough matchups, but facing a struggling LH starter in James Paxton does not necessarily qualify. Paxton’s resurgence this season came to an abrupt end when he was pummeled by the White Sox and these Rangers for a combined 7 ER on 15 H over his last 2 starts and he’ll have a very hard time limiting a Rangers squad that crushes LHP this evening. Lucroy hasn’t been playing every day, but he’s raking with a .367 batting average over his last 10 appearances and he’s a career .297 hitter against the platoon. He’s 2-for-3 in a limited sample of at-bats against Paxton and seems to match up well against the hard-throwing southpaw.
Sandy Leon ($3500/$2800) is a solid cash game option as part of a Red Sox stack tonight against RHP Paul Clemens.
Phillies LHP Adam Morgan has been very homer-prone this year, which makes J.T. Realmuto ($3900/$3100) a very strong GPP play as a RHB for the Marlins.
Adrian Gonzalez: (LAD) vs. ARI DK:$4,200/FD:$3,200
Gonzo remained a bargain on FanDuel throughout his hot streak and he’s starting to find rhythm once again with hits in six consecutive games. Tonight the Dodgers lefties are worth strong consideration in a matchup against RHP Shelby Miller, who is allowing LHB to hit .325 with a .414 wOBA this season. Miller has really struggled overall and he’s posting an alarming 39.3% Hard Contact Rate with a 16.7% HR/FB ratio against the platoon this year. That’s always been his Achilles heel, so it’s not surprising that Gonzalez has posted great numbers (4-for-7, HR) in limited meetings with Miller throughout his career. He’s very affordable and could surprise as the heart of a solid Dodgers stack tonight.
Miguel Cabrera ($5400/$3600) is certainly a value on FanDuel tonight in a plus matchup against RHP Miguel Gonzalez.
Chris Davis ($3400/$3600) came through as a fantastic tournament play yesterday and he’s in a similar situation as a boom or bust option tonight against Rays RHP Jake Odorizzi.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. KC DK:$5,300/FD:$4,300
At the risk of riding the wagon until the wheels fall off, you can stick with Dozier as a premier play against a homer-prone pitcher. He came through in a big way against Royals SP Ian Kennedy yesterday and he’s now launched 6 homers over his last 4 appearances. If the weather holds out in Minnesota tonight, he would bat in an even more favorable matchup against RHP Dillon Gee, who is posting a 14.7% HR/FB ratio this season and a 1.43 HR/9 ratio over the last two seasons. Dozier happens to be 5-for-14 with 3 HR in his career against Gee and he’s been on fire for the past several weeks, so he’s probably worth the money if the forecast looks alright.
Brandon Phillips ($3600/$3000) is a solid value option to consider against vulnerable Mets RHP Rafael Montero.
Logan Forsythe ($4400/$3700) continues to produce for the Rays and he’s a solid option to consider against Orioles starter Yovani Gallardo.
Adrian Beltre: (TEX) @ SEA DK:$5,000/FD:$3,400
Along with Lucroy, Beltre is a fantastic option to consider as part of a Rangers stack when his team faces a vulnerable southpaw. Paxton is posting good strikeout numbers, but is giving up a 23% Line Drive Rate to RHB this year and Beltre is a notable lefty-killer with a .328 batting average, .421 wOBA and 41.9% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon this year. He also happens to be 5-for-10 with a HR and 3 BB over 14 career plate appearances against Paxton and he’s had plenty of success at the familiar confines of Seattle’s Safeco Field.
Yoan Moncada ($3600/$3200) struggled along with the rest of the Red Sox bats yesterday, but he’s still worth a look at this price tag if he starts tonight.
Jose Ramirez ($3900/$3000) is a strong play to consider as part of an Indians stack against weak RHP Brad Peacock.
Jose Peraza: (CIN) vs. NYM DK:$4,400/FD:$2,700
Peraza continued to rake with 2 more hits against Bartolo Colon last night, but the Mets crafty veteran shut down the rest of the Reds lineup for a Win. Tonight Cincy could easily bounce back against young RHP Rafael Montero, who has struggled to stick in the Majors and been really poor against the platoon throughout his career. While Peraza is a RHB, the Reds have seen enough from their journeyman to bat him leadoff in this good matchup and LH sluggers such as Joey Votto could certainly stack well with him as the main threats to Montero.
Ivan De Jesus Jr. ($3100/$2300) is a switch hitter to consider as a LHB that could be stacked against the Reds.
Corey Seager ($5300/$3700) bounced back from a brief slump after getting plunked on the wrist with a huge game yesterday and he’s a premium GPP option to consider against Shelby Miller.
Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$5,300/FD:$4,000
True to form, Turner bounced back with another huge game in a plus matchup yesterday, and demonstrated his versatile upside once again with a homer. His ridiculous .343 batting average provides a very solid floor, while his 20 SB and 16 XBH over 48 MLB appearances tells you all you need to know about his upside. Braves RHP Williams Perez is making his first start since June 6 and he might not be too sharp as he comes off a long DL stint due to a rotator cuff issue. The Nationals are a very tough matchup for a mediocre RHP at their home ballpark and Turner should lead off this evening.
Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. TEX DK:$4,700/FD:$3,900
Cruz went cold for awhile with a back strain, but he’s clearly heating up again with 3 homers and 5 hits over his last 4 appearances. The Mariners hulking RHB is always worth a look when the opposition starts a southpaw, as he’s posting a .398 wOBA with a .314 ISO Mark against the platoon this year and has routinely mashed against lefties throughout his career. Cruz is 4-for-7 with a double and 2 homers against tonight’s starter, LHP Martin Perez, who is sporting a rough 5.08 ERA with a .282 BAA over his last 10 appearances and has been awful on the road all season with a 6.23 ERA over 13 starts.
Ryan Braun: (MIL) vs. CHC DK:$4,300/FD:$3,800
Braun is still a fantastic value on DK with plenty of upside despite the fact that he draws a relatively tough matchup tonight against Cubs RHP Jason Hammel. Like most of the Cubs starters, Hammel has been very solid this season, but he’s struggled a bit with a 4.65 ERA and .266 BAA on the road. Braun snapped out of a brief power funk with a homer yesterday and he happens to be 9-for-27 with 3 HR and a SB in his career against Hammel. Most importantly, he’s quite cheap on one of the main DFS sites and is probably the best Brewers bat to target at home tonight.
Yasiel Puig ($5000/$2900) is only a value on FD right now and he’s apparently just a platoon specialist for the Dodgers, but he’ll be worth a look if he starts tonight against Miller.
Odubel Herrera ($3900/$2800) is slowly breaking out of his slump for the Phillies and he draws a plus matchup against RHP Jose Urena.
Scott Schebler ($3600/$3200) is a cheap LHB to consider as part of a Reds stack against Montero.