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Scouting the MLB DFS, Wednesday September 7

We concentrate on tonight's 11-game slate of MLB action in the Daily DFS Breakdown

Plays of the Day

Value: You could certainly pay up for options with more upside on FanDuel, but Anthony Rendon’s cheap price tag on DK is too tempting to pass up in cash games. The Nats steady RHB is 7-for-21 with a HR and 7 RBI during his current 6-game hitting streak and the rest of this lineup is certainly hot around him, so consider him as part of a stack against Braves RHP Mike Foltynewicz.

Fade: Stephen Strasburg will make his return to the Nationals rotation tonight after missing a few weeks with an elbow issue. Yet his checkered reputation as “The Orchid” who needs pristine conditions to flourish, combined with the sketchy forecast in D.C tonight and the Braves solid splits against him makes him a very risky play.

Weather Report

    Strong chance of delays in Pittsburgh and Washington this evening.

Stackable Menu

  1. Nationals hosting RHP Mike Foltynewicz
  2. Rangers visiting LHP Ariel Miranda
  3. Blue Jays visiting RHP Bryan Mithcek
  4. Diamondbacks visiting RHP Brock Stewart
  5. Rockies hosting RHP Albert Suarez

Longshot Stack: Brewers hosting LHP Mike Montgomery


Pitchers

Two Studs

David Price: (BOS) @ SD DK:$13,100/FD:$10,800

If Clay Buchholz can shut down these Padres and earn a Win out in Petco, then you have to trust Price as an elite cash game option at his reasonable price tag on FanDuel. San Diego might be slightly more effective against LHP this year, but current Padres are just 4-for-31 (.129) with a lone XBH and 16 strikeouts in a small sample of at-bats against Price, while they’ve been absolutely awful in general with a collective .200 batting average and league-worst .270 wOBA over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Price has completely turned around his disappointing season with a 2.47 ERA over his last 8 appearances and with the Red Sox elite offense offering solid run support, he’s won each of his last 5 decisions.

Carlos Carrasco: (CLE) vs. HOU DK:$12,300/FD:$10,800

Carrasco’s teammate Corey Kluber didn’t pitch particularly well last night, and he somehow took a loss as the Indians were unable to produce enough runs against veteran RHP Brad Peacock. Yet Kluber still came through with 21 DK points because he recorded 9 Ks against an Astros team that is becoming increasingly strikeout-prone as the season winds down. Carrasco has usually had this team’s number with an impressive 12.32 K/9 ratio and 2.05 ERA over his last 5 appearances against Houston, while current Astros have recorded 17 strikeouts over just 51 at-bats throughout their careers against the RHP. He comes with a little more risk than Price, but seems to have more upside in this matchup.

Value Play:

Robbie Ray: (ARI) @ LAD DK:$8,300/FD:$8,500

Cut Ray some slack for a horrendous showing in the thin air at Coors Field, because he’s otherwise been very solid for the D’Backs. He’s still sporting a .243 BAA with a stellar 2.82 FIP since the ASB, and most importantly, he’s piling up strikeouts with an 11.77 K/9 ratio during the second half. The Dodgers actually sporting the lowest collective batting average (.220) with a 21.7% K-Rate when facing LHP this year and Ray has struck out 13 Dodgers over 13.1 IP while winning one of his two starts against the divisional rivals this year.

Longshot Pitcher:

Danny Duffy: (KC) @ MIN DK:$9,900/FD:$9,600

We go from one lefty with upside to another in Duffy, as the Royals southpaw will look to build on the momentum of a solid outing after he was pummeled at Fenway Park. Of course, prior to that he held these Twins to 1 ER over 6.2 strong innings, which was his 7th consecutive Quality Start, and he flashed surprising upside during that span with 46 strikeouts during that span. The Twins are sporting the fifth-highest K-Rate (23.4%) in the Majors against LHP and they’ve been posting a high 22.2% K-Rate over the last 30 days, while the white-hot Brian Dozier is the lone force keeping that offense afloat. Dozier is 8-for-29 in his career against Duffy but has never taken him deep, and the Royals LHP has certainly been solid with a .204 BAA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.80 K/9 ratio on the road this year.

Batters

Catcher:

Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) @ SEA DK: $4,100/FD: $3,400

Lucroy affirmed the assertion that he was very under priced on DK last night when he went for 20 DK points thanks mostly a 3-run HR off LHP James Paxton. He’s more reasonably priced tonight, but that’s because he draws an even better matchup against rookie southpaw Ariel Miranda, who is sporting a 5.76 ERA with a 1.82 HR/9 ratio through 7 MLB appearances. Lucroy’s numbers against the platoon are down this year, but he’s nearly a .300 hitter in his career against lefties and flashed that power last night, so he’s clearly a top option to consider against a LHP that’s posting a 5.89 FIP while giving up a 38.9% Hard Contact Rate to RHB so far in his career.

Potential Value

Sandy Leon ($3500/$2700) remains an excellent cash game option with the Red Sox facing another mediocre RHP in Jarred Cosart tonight.

Longshot

Yankees rookie phenom Gary Sanchez ($4800/$3900) a worth a look in tournament formats against boom or bust RHP Marcus Stroman.

First Base:

Edwin Encarnacion: (TOR) @ NYY DK:$4,700/FD:$4,100

He’s catching fire once again with 5 hits, including a HR, over his last 2 appearances and that makes Encarnacion a strong play in any format tonight. The Blue Jays slugger carries immense upside into a matchup against Yankees RHP Bryan Mitchell, who has been rehabbing a broken toe all year and posted a 9.00 ERA over a few starts at the AA level in August. He was last seen in the Majors posting a 6.37 ERA with a troublesome 19% HR/FB ratio as a reliever for the Yanks in 2015, so the homer-happy Jays are worth strong stacking consideration this evening. Encarnacion is hitting for a higher average (.277) with the same power numbers (.381 wOBA) in RvR matchups this year and he loves the cramped confines at Yankee Stadium.

Potential Value

Ryan Zimmerman ($2600/$3000) is starting to break out of his slump with 4 hits and a HR over his last 3 appearances and he’ll draw a good matchup against Braves RHP Mike Foltynewicz.

Longshot

Freddie Freeman ($4800/$3600) has great career splits against Strasburg and he’s worth a look if you think The Orchid will struggle in his return.

Second Base:

Daniel Murphy: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$4,600/FD:$3,800

Murphy has been too pricey on DraftKings lately given his recent power outage, but he came through with 3 H and a SB in last night’s plus matchup and has a great chance to keep rolling against Foltynewicz and the Braves this evening. The third-year RHP is pitching better of late, but is still vulnerable against the platoon with a 5.17 FIP, 1.66 HR/9 ratio and 33.3% Hard Contact Rate when facing LHB this year. Murphy is an elite cash game play with his .353 batting average at Nationals Park and he’s flashed power all year with a .420 wOBA and .265 ISO Mark against the platoon, so it’s only a matter of time before he launches a homer and justifies his price tag on DK.

Potential Value

Cesar Hernandez ($3600/$3200) is producing once again and he’s a solid value play to consider against RHP Andrew Cashner.

Longshot

Devon Travis ($4100/$3300) is worth a look as part of a potential Blue Jays stack against Mitchell.

Third Base:

Anthony Rendon: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$3,400/FD:$3,400

You could certainly pay up for options with more upside on FanDuel, but Rendon’s cheap price tag on DK is too tempting to pass up in cash games. The Nats steady RHB is 7-for-21 with a HR and 7 RBI during his current 6-game hitting streak and the rest of this lineup is certainly hot around him. While Foltynewicz has given up more XBH and HR to LHB, he’s allowing RHB to hit .291 with a 22.2% HR/FB ratio on the road this year. Rendon happens to be 1-for-3 with a HR in a small sample against the Braves young RHP and he’s simply a cheap addition to a solid stack this evening.

Potential Value

Justin Turner ($3200/$3600) is definitely worth a look as a cheap tournament play on DK tonight against LHP Robbie Ray.

Longshot

Nolan Arenado ($5500/$4300) is the elite 3B option that I would pay up for in GPP formats tonight if possible.

Shortstop:

Jonathan Villar: (MIL) vs. CHC DK:$5,400/FD:$3,600 as 3B

Since Rendon is hardly worth his price on FanDuel, consider Villar as an easy pivot on that site at what is still a very reasonable tag. The Brewers speedster got back in the lineup on Tuesday and flashed his trademark upside with a single, triple, HR, and SB to produce a whopping 32 DK points (39.9 FD points) last night. Now he’ll have the platoon advantage against Cubs LHP Mike Montgomery, who is a converted reliever that’s been touched up for 7 ER over 2 recent starts. He’s also walked 7 batters during that span, which is clearly asking for trouble against a hyper-aggressive Brewers lineup that’s led by a lefty-masher in Villar.

Potential Value

Chris Owings ($3800/$2600) is hitting .395 over his last 10 appearances for the D’Backs and he’ll face an unproven RHP tonight in Brock Stewart .

Longshot

Elvis Andrus ($4200/$2500) might not approach the ridiculous upside that he flashed last night, but if the Rangers and Mariners get into another slugfest he could easily pay off that price tag on FD.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$4,700/FD:$4,000

Turner turned in another fantastic line last night (2-for-5, 2B, SB, 17 DK points) and for some reason his price tag drops $600 on DraftKings ahead of another good matchup. We covered how Foltynewicz is giving up more XBH to LHB, but a higher average to righties this year, so Turner should be able to reach base tonight, as he’s done consistently over the past couple months to post a .344 average over 49 MLB appearances. He’s one of the premier speed threats in the game and Foltynewicz has not exactly held runners on with 8 SB allowed over his past two seasons.

Ender Inciarte: (ATL) @ WAS DK:$4,600/FD:$3,100

Even if you trust Strasburg to come back strong tonight, you have to like Inciarte as a solid cash game play and a great value on FanDuel at that price tag. The Braves LHB has been on fire with a .371 batting average since the ASB and he’s been ultra-consistent with a .439/.511/.537 slash line while hitting safely in each of his last 10 appearances. He’ll obviously have the platoon advantage tonight against Strasburg, who has had his troubles with the Braves in the past, and Inciarte has timed him up lately with a HR off the RHP last year and a couple of walks over 11 plate appearances.

Keon Broxton: (MIL) vs. CHC DK:$4,200/FD:$3,100

You can certainly consider teammates Ryan Braun ($5500/$4000) and Hernan Perez ($5200/$2600) as elite tournament plays to use against Montgomery tonight, but Broxton is the only affordable play with almost as much upside on DK. The young speedster is 6-for-13 with 2 SB over his last 3 appearances and we mentioned how Montgomery is allowing runners to reach very easily as a starter. Broxton is hitting .288 with a .397 wOBA against LHP to function almost exclusively as a platoon specialist, so he’ll almost certainly crack Milwaukee’s lineup tonight.

Potential Values

Yasiel Puig ($3900/$2900) Ok, now Puig will get to start with the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray and he’s worth a look as a cheap play on both main DFS sites.

Odubel Herrera ($3800/$2900) was huge for the Phillies last night and he happens to have great career splits against Andrew Cashner.

A.J. Pollock ($3500/$3400) homered last night and continues to find his rhythm after missing most of the year with a broken arm.


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