Scouting the MLB DFS, Friday September 9

Let's cash in on a huge MLB slate this Friday night with these top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Edwin Encarnacion is available at a huge discount on DK right now. The Blue Jays slugger has been boom or bust lately, but obviously carries huge upside with 37 HR and 112 RBI on the year and a .380 wOBA since the ASB. He also happens to be 13-for-34 with 5 doubles and 3 HR in his career against Red Sox SP Rick Porcello, who has been a bit more vulnerable on the road this year.

Fade: The Dodgers certainly didn’t rush Clayton Kershaw back with his back injury and he’s unlikely to go more than 6 or 7 innings at the most in his return to MLB action tonight. On the other side of the ball, Jose Fernandez has really struggled lately and faces a red-hot Dodgers lineup, so I’d be willing to fade both of the most expensive pitchers on this slate.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Chicago (White Sox) with storms in the midwest this evening. Might see a delayed start in New York (Yankees).

Stackable Menu

  1. Mariners visiting RHP Daniel Mengden
  2. Cardinals hosting RHP Jimmy Nelson
  3. Nationals hosting RHP Jake Thompson
  4. Rockies visiting RHP Luis Perdomo
  5. Rangers visiting LHP Tyler Skaggs

Longshot Stack: Mets hosting RHP Julio Teheran


Pitchers

Two Studs

Madison Bumgarner: (SF) @ ARI DK:$11,200/FD:$10,700

He might get lost in the shuffle with a premier matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez scheduled in Miami tonight, but Bumgarner could very well emerge as the best play of the evening in any format. For one, he’s much cheaper than those aces on DK despite the fact that he’s coming off a 10-strikeout performance to produce 29.9 DK points at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. On paper, facing the righty-heavy D’Backs lineup is also a very difficult matchup, but MadBum posted his best line of the season with a CGSO, allowing one hit and one walk with 14 Ks in a home start against the D’Backs in July. While he’s generally a bit more vulnerable on the road, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA and .216 BAA over his last 7 starts at Chase Field, so he’s quite trustworthy tonight.

Jon Lester: (CHC) @ HOU DK:$12,100/FD:$10,600

Speaking of reliable options, Lester recovered quite nicely from a rough three-game stretch to post superb, even robotic, numbers over his last several appearances. Taking the role of Stopper from struggling RHP Jake Arrieta, the southpaw is 5-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 8.78 K/9 ratio over his last 7 starts. He’s allowed 1 ER or fewer while averaging 27.2 DK PPG over his last 4 appearances and tonight he faces an Astros team that has very limited experience against him. While Houston contains a couple of lefty-killers, including MVP candidate Jose Altuve, they’re collectively sporting the third-lowest batting average (.246) with third-highest K-Rate (22.8%) against LHP amongst A.L. teams this year. Astros rookie RHP Joe Musgrove has gone from budding ace to punching bag over his last several starts, which gives Lester a great shot at yet another Win with solid run support.

Value Play:

Robert Gsellman: (NYM) @ ATL DK:$5,300/FD:$6,200

When these two teams meet, a high-scoring affair is rarely in the outcome, which is why you could take a chance on this Mets rookie shutting down a weak Braves lineup. Gsellman allowed 4 ER in his second career start at the end of August, but bounced back to shut down the Nationals at home in a far more impressive performance last Saturday. He’s sporting a 2.87 ERA with a solid 47.7% GB Rate through 3 MLB appearances and should be able to post a Quality Start against a Braves team that’s scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors with the second-lowest collective .299 wOBA this year.

Longshot Pitcher:

Carlos Martinez: (STL) vs. MIL DK:$10,300/FD:$10,000

Who is the biggest favorite on this huge slate of MLB action? It’s actually the Cardinals with Carlos Martinez on the mound. They will be hosting an inconsistent RHP in Jimmy Nelson, who is sporting a rough 5.94 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP on the road and has been touched up twice by the Red Birds this season. Current Cardinals are now hitting .327 with 25 runs scored against Nelson, while current Brewers are just 18-for-80 (.225) with an invisible .275 slugging percentage and 37 strikeouts in their careers against Martinez. These numbers are inflated by his latest start against Milwaukee, in which he struck out 13 batters over 6 strong innings. The Brewers are sporting the highest K-Rate (25.2%) in the Majors this year and Martinez clearly has tons of upside if he can combine those strikeout totals with a Win at Busch Stadium tonight.

Batters

Catcher:

Buster Posey: (SF) @ ARI DK: $4,100/FD: $3,600

Posey and the Giants were slumping over the last several weeks, but he’s starting to break out of it with 4 H, including an RBI double last night, over his last 3 appearances. Tonight the Giants are worth stacking consideration against D’Backs RHP Rubby De La Rosa, who is coming off a lengthy DL stint with an elbow injury and was hardly reliable before that. De La Rosa posted one of the highest HR/9 ratios (1.53) in the MLB last year and he’s coughing up a 17.5% HR/FB ratio over 11 appearances this season. The RHP is also move vulnerable against RHB and Posey happens to be 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 BB over a limited sample against the vulnerable SP.

Potential Value

Francisco Cervelli ($2900/$2900) is a solid value play to consider on DK against Reds rookie Tim Adelman.

Longshot

Jonathan Lucroy ($3600/$3400) sees a huge price drop on DK despite the fact that he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against LHP Tyler Skaggs.

First Base:

Edwin Encarnacion: (TOR) vs. BOS DK:$3,900/FD:$4,100

It’s not the easiest matchup against consistent RHP Rick Porcello, but Encarnacion is available at a huge discount on DK right now. The Blue Jays slugger has been boom or bust lately, but obviously carries huge upside with 37 HR and 112 RBI on the year and a .380 wOBA since the ASB. He happens to be 13-for-34 with 5 doubles and 3 HR in his career against Porcello, who has been a bit more vulnerable on the road this year. He’s actually been tagged for 11 ER over 16 IP (3 starts) against the Blue Jays and Encarnacion is one of several Toronto batters that is far more dangerous at the Rogers Centre.

Potential Value

Justin Morneau ($3200/$2500) is worth a look as a punt play with upside against homer-prone RHP Yordano Venutra.

Longshot

Miguel Cabrera ($4500/$3900) is rolling right now and shouldn’t have much trouble producing in a home tilt against RHP Kevin Gausman.

Second Base:

Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. CLE DK:$5,400/FD:$4,200

In a breaking news story, Dozier did not homer last night, but of course he did produce double-digit DK points for the eighth time over his last nine starts with a single, SB, and run scored. The Twins slugger is the hottest power hitter in the Majors right now with 9 bombs over his last 10 appearances and he’s added 3 SB to average a ridiculous 18.6 DK PPG during that span. His price tag is relatively reasonable considering his recent production and the fact that he’s posted fantastic career splits (11-for-23, 5 2B, 2 HR) in his career against Indians RHP Danny Salazar, who has generally struggled over the past couple of months and been lit up in each of his meetings with the Twins this year.

Potential Value

Josh Harrison ($3500/$3300) continues to heat up for the Pirates and he’s worth a look tonight against Reds rookie RHP Tim Adelman.

Longshot

Matt Carpenter ($4900/$4300) has been a problem for Jimmy Nelson (6-for-13, 2B, HR, 2 BB) in the past and he should lead off for the Cardinals tonight.

Third Base:

Kris Bryant: (CHC) @ HOU DK:$4,900/FD:$4,000

While he’s cooled off a bit lately, Bryant has still posted some of the best numbers in the Majors with a .328 batting average and .416 wOBA since the ASB. He’s been more effective on the road this season with a 1.032 OPS away from Wrigley Field and he draws a great matchup tonight against Astros rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been lit up in 3 of his last 4 outings after a strong start to his MLB career. Musgrove is coughing up a 1.71 HR/9 ratio with an alarming 25.4% LD Rate against RHB, so Bryant might have slightly more upside than fellow slugger Anthony Rizzo or any other member of a potential Cubs stack.

Potential Value

Jose Reyes ($3700/$3200) has plenty of upside at this price tag against a RHP in Julio Teheran that is vulnerable against the platoon.

Longshot

Kyle Seager ($4800/$3900) is on fire for the Mariners and he also draws a plus matchup against Athletics rookie RHP Daniel Mengden.

Shortstop:

Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ MIN DK:$5,100/FD:$3,500

He’s the hottest hitting shortstop in baseball right now and priced like it on DK, but Lindor is a great option at that price on FanDuel tonight. The Indians will face a RHP in Tyler Duffey, who has suddenly looked very vulnerable over his last two starts and is now sporting a rough 7.18 ERA with a .314 BAA over his last 10 appearances. Duffey has been struggling at Target Field all season with a 7.22 ERA and 2.17 HR/9 ratio at home, while Lindor comes into this matchup sporting a .450/.511/.600 slash line with 5 XBH, 4 BB and just 2 strikeouts over his last 10 appearances.

Potential Value

Jose Peraza ($4100/$2900) came up empty along with the rest of the Reds last night but he’ll definitely be worth a look if he’s leading off against rookie LHP Steven Brault .

Longshot

Asdrubal Cabrera ($3800/$3200) could serve as a high-upside addition to a longshot Mets stack against Julio Teheran.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$5,300/FD:$4,200

Ok, enough with the fading of Turner for LHB on the Nationals such as Daniel Murphy or Bryce Harper, as the rookie leadoff man is the one you want to lean on in cash game lineups. Washington has a great chance to roll tonight against rookie RHP Jake Thompson, who has coughed up 13 ER over his 2 road starts (9.1 IP) so far in his MLB career. Thompson has had trouble against righties and lefties alike with a 2.25 HR/9 ratio and 37.3% Hard Contact when facing RHB this season, while he’s an inexperienced SP that will have a hard time keeping Turner from adding to his impressive SB total should he reach first tonight.

Carlos Beltran: (TEX) @ LAA DK:$4,700/FD:$3,800

Beltran continued to roll during the Rangers road trip and he’s now batting .439 during his current 11-game hitting streak. He’s flashed plenty of upside with 5 doubles and 4 homers during that span and has done a lot of damage from the right side of the plate, as he’s sporting a .347 batting average with a .259 ISO Mark against LHP this season. Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs is coughing up a 1.42 HR/9 ratio against the platoon and has been more vulnerable throughout the 2nd half, so he’s worth targeting with a Rangers lineup that crushes lefties.

David Dahl: (COL) @ SD DK:$4,100/FD:$3,400

The rest of the Rockies went ice cold in last night’s matchup, but Dahl was a cool 3-for-4 to raise his impressive average to .333 as a rookie. Few batters have tremendous upside when they play at massive Petco Park, but Dahl is primarily a singles hitter with a modest .535 slugging percentage on the year, so he’s still a good cash game with a solid floor in this matchup. The Padres are starting rookie RHP Luis Perdomo, who is somehow sporting a 6.58 ERA with a .349 BAA and 1.97 WHIP over 13 appearances at home this year. Perdomo is posting a 5.61 FIP with a 40.2% Hard Contact Rate against the platoon this year and should struggle to retire a stellar young LHB in Dahl.

Potential Values

J.D. Martinez ($4000/$3700) is strangely under priced on DK ahead of a decent matchup against RHP Kevin Gausman.

Ryan Braun ($3600/$4000) may never be this cheap on DK again and he’s definitely worth a look even if you’re going to use Carlos Martinez against the Brew Crew.

Leonys Martin ($3300/$3000) is worth a look as a lefty with the platoon advantage against rookie RHP Daniel Mengden.


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