© Troy Taormina / USA Today

Scouting the MLB DFS, Saturday September 10

We bring you the best DFS plays for tonight's 11-game slate of MLB action in the Daily Breakdown

Plays of the Day

Value: Adrian Beltre clearly has as much upside as any of the elite options at 3B with a .395/.489/.737 slash line and 4 HR to average 13.3 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances and the Rangers are an elite stacking option tonight against inexperienced SP Daniel Wright. Beltre is hardly slowing down with a .317 batting average and .412 wOBA since the ASB and he tends to come up huge when Texas puts up runs, which is certainly implied total of 4.78 runs for the visitors this evening.

Fade: Corey Seager is the most expensive SS on this slate due to his plus matchup against Marlins RHP Tom Koehler, but you have to question how healthy the Rookie of the Year candidate feels after getting drilled on the wrist last week. At the very least, that could sap his power.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Pittsburgh later tonight. Strong winds expected to be blowing out in Washington and Chicago (White Sox).

Stackable Menu

  1. Royals visiting RHP James Shields
  2. Rangers visiting RHP Daniel Wright
  3. Twins hosting RHP Mike Clevinger
  4. Mets visiting RHP John Gant
  5. Tigers hosting RHP Ublado Jimenez

Longshot Stack: Reds visiting RHP Drew Hutchison


Pitchers

Two Studs

Max Scherzer: (WAS) vs. PHI DK:$14,200/FD:$11,500

Well, DK is certainly making it tough to play Scherzer in any format, but he’s probably going to be worth the money once again tonight. He’ll face the Phillies again after dominating this lineup for 11 Ks and 2 ER over 8 strong innings (37.6 DK points, 63 FD points) in late August. That’s clearly not surprising given the fact that Philly ranks dead last in most offensive categories and current Phillies are now hitting just .197 (36-for-183) with 58 strikeouts over 195 career plate appearances against the Nationals ace. Scherzer has been virtually untouchable with a 0.87 WHIP and .186 BAA over his last 10 appearances and he’s even tougher at home with a 2.35 ERA and 11.63 K/9 ratio at Nationals Park this season.

Rich Hill: (LAD) @ MIA DK:$11,300/FD:$9,200

I would have no issues with Hill as the preferred cash game option tonight in the event that you can’t afford Scherzer on either main DFS site. The Dodgers southpaw hasn’t missed a beat since coming off the DL, blanking the Giants and Dodgers over B2B six-inning starters and finding his rhythm in terms of strikeouts with 8 Ks last Saturday. Tonight he’ll face a Marlins squad that is ranked 27th in the Majors with a collective .247 batting average and .303 wOBA over the last 30 days and is sporting a 22.4% K-Rate against LHP this year. Hill has been the definition of consistent with his 1.94 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, winning 11 of his 16 starts for the A’s and Dodgers this year and now that he’s pitching for a capable offensive team he’s much more likely to keep rolling with Wins.

Value Play:

Bartolo Colon: (NYM) @ ATL DK:$7,000/FD:$7,700

Colon has posted Quality Starts in 7 of his last 9 appearances and he’s hardly been rocked on those outings that weren’t quality. He’s just plugging along at the age of 42 in the final months of the season and he should fare just fine in his third meeting against a weak Braves lineup. Colon has held Atlanta to just 1 ER on 13 H over 15 IP so far this season and his Mets (-122) are clear road favorites with rookie RHP John Gant slated to start for the Bravos this evening.

Longshot Pitcher:

Jon Gray: (COL) @ SD DK:$10,600/FD:$8,200

Gray is surprisingly expensive on DK tonight, but that indicates his upside in a fantastic matchup. The Padres have obviously been one of the worst offensive teams in the Majors over each of the past three seasons, but their strikeout numbers have really taken off with a 25.6% K-Rate over the last 30 days. Gray has obviously been a bit more effective away from Coors Field and he’s dominated San Diego with just 5 ER allowed and 30 Ks over 20 IP (3 starts) to average 30 DK PPG against the Padres this year. He’s sporting a solid 9.51 K/9 ratio on the road this year and flashed some upside with excellent lines in Milwaukee and against the Dodgers before faltering in his second consecutive start at Coors, but he could easily pay off his price tag at massive Petco Park this evening.

Batters

Catcher:

Jonathan Lucroy: (TEX) @ LAA DK: $4,700/FD: $3,600

He’s the most expensive catcher on DK for good reason, as the Rangers should be all over rookie RHP Daniel Wright in tonight’s road tilt and Lucroy should bat in the heart of that lineup. The Angels picked up Wright from the Reds organization after the 25-year-old coughed up 11 ER over 13 IP as a starter and reliever, and he also posted a rough 6.13 ERA with a .305 BAA at the AAA level this year. It’s hard to imagine Wright navigating a Rangers lineup that has produced 150 runs (fourth-most in MLB) with the third-highest collective wOBA (.347) over the last 30 days. Lucroy is right in the mix of that production with a .292 batting average and .368 wOBA since August 1 and he’s clearly enjoying the support around him now that he’s wearing a Rangers uniform.

Potential Value

Travis d’Arnaud ($2800/$2300) is a interesting salary relief play to consider against Braves rookie John Gant.

Longshot

Victor Martinez ($3100 as 1B on DK/$3600) is a fantastic value on DK at that position and an elite option with upside on FanDuel against homer-prone RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.

First Base:

Victor Martinez: (DET) vs. BAL DK:$3,100/FD:$3,600 as C

Martinez is a fantastic value on DK at that position and an elite option with upside as a catcher on FanDuel against homer-prone RHP Ubaldo Jimenez. The Orioles starter has turned his disastrous season around over his last few appearances, but he’s still sporting a 5.94 ERA on the road this year and has really struggled against this opponent. Current Tigers are batting .310 with a whopping 13 homers over 200 career at-bats against Jimenez, while Martinez leads that category with 4 bombs and a .355 batting average (11-for-31) in his career against him. He’s it safely in 4 straight appearances and homered last night, so he’ll be worth a look against RHP that’s sporting an alarming .315 BAA with a 1.86 HR/9 ratio against LHB this season.

Potential Value

Brandon Belt ($3800/$3800) is worth a look as a strong play with upside, as he’ll have the platoon advantage against D’Backs RHP Archie Bradley.

Longshot

Joey Votto ($4700/$3800) didn’t get much support from his teammates while logging 3 H last night, but he could flash a lot more upside if new Pirates SP Drew Hutchison struggles in his N.L. debut this evening.

Second Base:

Brian Dozier: (MIN) vs. CLE DK:$5,600/FD:$4,200

Are you willing to fade the hottest power hitter in baseball right now? It’s tough to ignore Dozier regardless of his price tag, which isn’t necessarily that high considering he’s sporting a .332/.367/.845 slash line since August 1 and is clearly on fire with 9 homers over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a rookie RHP in Mike Clevinger, who didn’t even last two innings in his last sport and might struggle on the road in this tough spot. Dozier has already homered off Clevinger in 3 career at-bats and he’s capable of doing damage against whichever long reliever might replace him if he’s yanked early once again.

Potential Value

Josh Harrison ($3600/$3400) remains a quality cash game option at this modest price tag on DK.

Longshot

Brandon Phillips ($3100/$2900) could have a big game for the Reds if RHP Drew Hutchison is not on his game in Pittsburgh.

Third Base:

Adrian Beltre: (TEX) @ LAA DK:$4,400/FD:$3,200

It’s almost been cheating to use Beltre at a diminished price tag when he draws a fantastic matchup. He clearly has as much upside as any of the elite options at 3B with a .395/.489/.737 slash line and 4 HR to average 13.3 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances and we mentioned how the Rangers are an elite stacking option tonight against an inexperienced SP. Beltre is hardly slowing down with a .317 batting average and .412 wOBA since the ASB and he tends to come up huge when Texas puts up runs, which is certainly implied total of 4.78 runs for the visitors this evening.

Potential Value

Anthony Rendon ($3600/$3600) is probably too expensive to draw consideration on FD but he’s a quality salary relief play with on DK with the Nats hosting RHP Jerad Eickhoff.

Longshot

Jonathan Villar ($4700/$4100) always has boundless upside and he’s capable of doing damage against Cardinals shaky veteran Adam Wainwright.

Shortstop:

Francisco Lindor: (CLE) @ MIN DK:$4,400/FD:$3,600

It’s very nice of DK to give us such a huge price break on Lindor after he continued his hot-hitting ways with a pair of singles last night. The Indians switch hitter is now batting .463 with 5 XBH and 4 BB with just 3 Ks over his last 10 appearances and he’ll bat from his preferred side of the plate tonight against LHP Hector Santiago. Lindor is batting .318 with a .351 wOBA in his career as a RHB and he happens to be 4-for-10 in a limited sample of at-bats against Santiago, who has been boom or bust for the Angels or Twins all year. Consider Lindor as a reliable cash game play with enough upside to warrant tournament consideration tonight.

Potential Value

Jose Peraza ($3800/$2800) came through with a BB and SB to salvage a hitless line last night and he could be much more productive as the head of a Reds stack this evening.

Longshot

Jose Reyes ($4200/$2900 as 3B on FD) is an appealing value play on FanDuel, as he has plenty of upside in this plus matchup against rookie RHP John Gant.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ATL DK:$5,000/FD:$4,100

It’s getting repetitive to list this kid every single night as an elite option, but his production speaks for itself. Turner came up huge again with 2 homers last night to produce 30 DK points (40.9 FD points) in a win over the Phillies and he has a chance to blow up again tonight. Phillies young RHP Jerad Eickoff has posted some good numbers this year, yet he’s been more vulnerable with a 4.44 ERA on the road this year and is coughing up a 1.18 HR/9 ratio overall. Eickhoff has given up 9 SB this season in 13 attempts and Turner is one of the most consistently successful thieves in the Majors right now, so give him a look on the strength of his versatile upside.

J.D. Martinez: (DET) vs. BAL DK:$4,300/FD:$3,800

Martinez is another Tigers bat to strongly consider tonight against Jimenez, who simply can’t be considered reliable for the Orioles at this point in the season. Detroit might be struggling as a unit, but it’s not because of JDM, who is sporting a .417/.512/.694 slash line with multiple hits in 3 of his last 5 appearances. He’s batting .325 on the year and .400 since the ASB to spit in the face of pundits that pointed to regression and he happens to be 3-for-11 with 2 HR in his career against Jimenez, who mentioned is extremely vulnerable to the long ball.

Ryan Braun: (MIL) vs. STL DK:$4,100/FD:$4,000

He got the day off yesterday, but you can bet that Braun will be in the lineup against familiar foe Adam Wainwright this evening. For what it’s worth, he homered in 2 of his last 4 appearances after getting a day off to rest and he’s clearly under priced on DK ahead of this matchup. Wainwright has clearly lost a step after undergoing Achilles surgery and he’s certainly struggled lately with a 6.13 ERA over his last 8 appearances. Braun is just 16-for-77 (.208) with 21 Ks in his career against Waino, but those numbers are mostly from when the Cards RHP was a CY Young contender. This year he’s singled twice and struck out once against the veteran, so modest returns seem to be in the cards to match his modest price on DK.

Potential Values

Byron Buxton ($4400/$3100) is really heating up for the Twins and he draws a good matchup against rookie Mike Clevinger.

Consider either or both Paulo Orlando ($3800/$3300) and Jarrod Dyson ($4300/$3000) depending on their placement in the Royals lineup against vulnerable RHP James Shields.

Brandon Guyer ($3400/$3000) should crack the Indians lineup tonight with the platoon advantage against LHP Hector Santiago.


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