Plays of the Day
Value: Brandon Drury should be in the Diamondacks lineup tonight with the platoon advantage against veteran LHP Jorge De La Rosa. Drury is sporting a 17.9% HR/FB ratio with 5 bombs off lefties over just 115 at-bats this year and he’s been hot lately with a .457 batting average and 2 HR over his last 9 appearances. Give him a look as a cheap play with upside in this plus matchup.
Fade: I’m not willing to recommend Noah Syndergaard against the Nationals on the road, but neither will I recommend their batters against the Mets ace. Trea Turner stands out as a usually elite cash game play, who might come up short in this tough RvR matchup against an electric pitcher.
- Slight chance of delays in Chicago (White Sox) later this evening.
- Mariners visiting RHP Alex Meyer
- Red Sox hosting RHP Dylan Bundy
- Diamondbacks hosting LHP Jorge De La Rosa
- Blue Jays hosting LHP Drew Smyly
- Pirates visiting RHP Alec Asher
Longshot Stack: Angels hosting RHP Taijuan Walker
Danny Duffy: (KC) vs. OAK DK:$10,300/FD:$9,600
If you want an elite SP that comes with more reward and more potential risk tonight, pay up for Noah Syndergaard in a tough road test at Nationals Park, but otherwise, Duffy seems like a very solid option in any format. The Royals crafty LHP bounced back from a couple of rough starts to hold the Twins in check with 10 strikeouts over 6 strong innings in his last appearance. Despite posting poor numbers in tough matchups against the Red Sox and Tigers recently, he’s been excellent in DFS with a 2.94 ERA and 8.82 K/9 ratio to average 22 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances. Tonight he’ll face an Athletics team that is sporting the second-lowest collective batting average (.244) and wOBA (.296) against LHP amongst A.L. teams and remains the lowest-scoring team in their league with 566 runs produced this year.
Ivan Nova: (PIT) @ PHI DK:$10,600/FD:$7,300
I might steer clear of Nova at that lofty price tag on DK, but he’s not a terrible cash game option on that DFS site and seems like a fantastic bargain at that price on FanDuel. The Pirates (-138) are favored on the road tonight because the Phillies are starting weak RHP Alec Asher, who was excellent in his season debut last week, but is still vulnerable as indicated by the 9.31 ERA he posted during his rookie year in 2015. In any case, Nova should be able to handle a Phillies offense that is ranked dead last in terms of runs scored (526), collective batting average (.236) and wOBA (.292) this year. The former Yankees hurler has been enjoying life in the National League and just cruised to a complete-game win over the Reds while eliciting 16 groundball outs, so he should be able to go deep into this ball game and potentially earn another Win.
Jharel Cotton: (OAK) @ KC DK:$6,200/FD:$5,500
Another young SP with a very modest price tag on both main DFS sites, Cotton is an appealing option in any format in what doesn’t seem like a daunting matchup on paper. The Royals are the second-lowest scoring team in the A.L. with 591 runs this year (slightly more than Oakland) and they’re going to depend on pitching in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. Cotton was excellent in his MLB debut last week, allowing just 1 ER on 2 H over 6 IP against the Angels and he has more upside than he showed as indicated by the 10.28 K/9 ratio he posted in the PCL league, which is one of the most hitter-friendly divisions at the AAA level. With an ability to change speeds and arm angles on different pitches, the top prospect could find a home in Oakland, where they are known to get the most out of their young arms.
Robbie Ray: (ARI) vs. COL DK:$7,700/FD:$8,300
Ray was recently shelled in Colorado and he’s had trouble at that ballpark this year, but that’s the case with most pitchers due to the thin air at Coors Field. He’ll get a chance at redemption at home tonight, where he’s been much better of late, posting a 3.13 ERA with 28 Ks over his last 4 starts (23 IP) at Chase Field. The Rockies have a lefty-heavy lineup that’s sporting a high 22.6% K-Rate against LHP this season and Ray is always an intriguing GPP play because of his own elite K/9 ratio (11.30) this year. Arizona (-155) is a solid favorite tonight with vulnerable veteran LHP Jorge De La Rosa starting for Colorado and that gives Ray additional upside.
Welington Castillo: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $4,100/FD: $2,900
The D’Backs face a familiar foe tonight in Jorge De La Rosa, who is sporting a 5.40 ERA with a .307 BAA over his last 10 appearances and doesn’t have too much left in the tank at the age of 35. Arizona is arguably the most dangerous team for a southpaw to face, as they lead the Majors in collective wOBA (.350) and slugging percentage (.483) against LHP this season. Castillo is hitting .292 with a .382 wOBA against the platoon this year and he happens to be 8-for-19 in his career against JDLR. Arizona’s backstop was red hot with a .344 batting average during August and he’s 3-for-9 with a HR over his last 2 appearances, so give him a look as a reasonably priced addition to a D’Backs stack.
Sandy Leon ($3800/$2800) continues to reach base with consistency for the Red Sox and he’s in another good spot at home against RHP Dylan Bundy.
J.T. Realmuto ($4200/$2700) has plenty of upside in a matchup against weak RHP Matt Wisler and he’s under priced on FanDuel.
David Ortiz: (BOS) vs. BAL DK:$5,500/FD:$4,100
It’s tough to pick between Big Papi and Hanley Ramirez ($5000/$3500) since both 1B on red hot right now and both draw a plus matchup at home tonight. Orioles converted reliever Dylan Bundy had a nice run, but seems to be falling apart now that teams have a book on him, as he was just touched up for 5 ER by the Rays lowly offense. Boston did the same to him in a start at Baltimore last month and now the Red Sox face him at Fenway, where they’re the most dangerous home team in the Majors. Ortiz has been a huge part of that with a .337/.436/.695 slash line and he’s absolute crushing righties with a .424 ISO Mark against the platoon at Fenway this year. Bundy is sporting a 5.23 ERA with a 1.74 HR/9 ratio and 1.67 WHIP on the road this season and will probably get hit hard just like his teammate Wade Miley was on Monday night.
Mike Napoli ($3600/$3700) homered last night and he will be worth a look at this price tag on DK with the platoon advantage against LHP Jose Quintana.
Edwin Encarnacion ($5400/$4100) and the Blue Jays should be licking their chops at the idea of facing struggling LHP Drew Smyly at home tonight.
Brian Dozier: (MIN) @ DET DK:$5,600/FD:$3,700
This guy is simply unreal and hardly worth fading on FanDuel, where he’s priced right in the middle of the pack at 2B. Dozier homered yet again last night, which is his league leading 26th since the ASB and he’s now sporting a ridiculous .542 ISO Mark with 8 of those bombs coming in September. Tonight he draws an appealing matchup against Tigers LHP Matt Boyd, who is performing better of late, but struggled against the top of the Twins lineup when he gave up homers to Dozier and Robbie Grossman in a 9-4 win over Minnesota last month. Dozier is absolutely crushing lefties with a .427 wOBA against the platoon this year and he deserves consideration in any format until he cools off.
Brandon Phillips ($3500/$3000) is hitting .406 over his last 10 appearance and he draws a solid matchup against veteran RHP Matt Garza tonight.
Consider Devon Travis ($3900/$3300) as a valuable addition to a Blue Jays stack against LHP Drew Smyly.
Yuli Gurriel: (HOU) vs. TEX DK:$2,600/FD:$3,000
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That applies to Gurriel as a viable option in any format with his modest price tag on DK. The Astros and Rangers played into extra innings last night and that gave the rookie a chance to log two more base hits and raise his average to .344 over 64 MLB at-bats. He’s actually been more consistent with a .357 batting average and 2 of his 3 homers coming off RHP this season and he’ll face a mediocre righty tonight in A.J. Griffin. The Rangers SP is struggling with a 6.58 ERA over his last 7 appearances, including a performance in which he gave up 2 HR and 3 ER in a home start against the Astros. Now he’ll face that dangerous lineup on the road and he’s been more vulnerable with a 5.52 ERA and 1.47 WHIP away from Texas this year.
Adonis Garcia ($4200/$2700) is a strong value play to consider on FanDuel in a good matchup against Marlins rookie RHP Jake Esch.
Jose Reyes ($4100/$3000) continues to flash versatile upside like some type of poor man’s Jonathan Villar and he’ll face an inexperienced RHP tonight in A.J Cole.
Manny Machado: (BAL) @ BOS DK:$4,600/FD:$3,900 as 3B
Machado is worth a look in tournament formats on both main DFS sites in the event that tonight’s tilt at Fenway Park turns into a true slugfest. That ballpark has an extremely high Run Factor and Red Sox LHP Drew Pomeranz has been shaky since moving to the A.L. East, so there are a few Orioles RHB that are worth a look in this matchup. Machado is hitting .326 with a .395 wOBA against the platoon this year and he’s hitting around .300 with 9 2B and 6 HR over his last 115 at-bats at Fenway. Give him a look as a way to get exposure on both sides of this contest with a 9.5-run Over/Under.
Francisco Lindor ($3600/$3700) draws a pretty tough matchup against LHP Jose Quintana, but the switch hitter should still be able to produce for the Indians.
Brad Miller ($3700/$3000) has plenty of upside in a matchup against inconsistent RHP Marcus Storman.
Mookie Betts: (BOS) vs. BAL DK:$5,500/FD:$4,100
We’re loving a Red Sox stack once again at Fenway tonight and Mookie has to draw consideration as the head of that beast. He’s been dynamite all year and is in the thick of MVP talks with 30 HR, 23 SB and a .313 batting average on the year. Like most Boston bats, he’s been even better at home with a .340/.368/.550 slash line, as 17 of those bombs have come at Fenway, and sometimes come in droves during a couple of huge games. He has crazy upside against a homer-prone pitcher like Bundy, who might not last long, and the Orioles are not particularly strong in middle relief either.
Ender Inciarte: (ATL) vs. MIA DK:$4,500/FD:$3,100
Inciarte remains a bargain on FanDuel and he should remain a fantastic cash game option on either main DFS site given his recent consistency. The Braves LHB has hit safely in 21 of his last 22 appearances and he draws a good matchup tonight against a rookie RHP named Jake Esch, whose 4.82 ERA over 2 MLB appearances belies his rough 6.14 FIP. Esch posted a 5.70 ERA with a .325 BAA at the AAA level this year and probably isn’t ready to perform at the highest level quite yet.
Brandon Drury: (ARI) vs. COL DK:$3,600/FD:$3,000
Drury has moved around defensively and been in and out of the D’Backs lineup over the past month, but he’s almost certainly going to start with the platoon advantage tonight against veteran LHP Jorge De La Rosa. Drury is sporting a 17.9% HR/FB ratio with 5 bombs off lefties over just 115 at-bats this year and he’s been hot lately with a .457 batting average and 2 HR over his last 9 appearances. Give him a look as a cheap play with upside in this plus matchup.
Adam Jones ($3900/$3500) has been leading off when Baltimore faces a LHP and he’ll be worth a look if that’s the case at Fenway tonight.
Leonys Martin ($3800/$2700) went 4-for-4 in a plus matchup last night and face another weak SP tonight in Angels RHP Alex Meyer.
Consider Kevin Pillar ($3500/$2500) as another RHB to use against Drew Smyly with the Blue Jays possessing high upside as a stack.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7