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Scouting the MLB DFS, Wednesday September 14

We concentrate on tonight's 10-game slate of MLB action this Wednesday and bring you the best DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Carlos Rodon is 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 7 starts and that includes a meeting with this Indians in Cleveland in which he went 6 strong innings and allowed just 2 ER. The Indians are posting a 20.8% K-Rate against LHP this year and they’ve logged 20 Ks over 91 combined career at-bats against Rodon, so he’s a solid mid-tier option on both main DFS sites.

Fade: It’s a risky method on a relatively short evening slate tonight, but I’m willing to fade Jose Fernandez in a road start. He was absolutely electric at home against the Dodgers in his last time out, but has been otherwise touchable with a 3.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over his last 10 appearances and he’s struggled all season with a 4.46 ERA on the road.

Weather Report

    Slight chance of a delayed start in Boston this evening.

Stackable Menu

  1. White Sox hosting RHP Josh Tomlin
  2. Diamondbacks hosting RHP Jeff Hoffman
  3. Brewers visiting RHP Tim Adleman
  4. Rockies visiting RHP Rubby De La Rosa
  5. Twins visiting RHP Anibal Sanchez

Longshot Stack: Astros hosting LHP Derek Holland


Pitchers

Two Studs

Rick Porcello: (BOS) vs. BAL DK:$9,900/FD:$9,600

Porcello’s price tag has dropped on DK to the point that he’s an excellent value considering his remarkable consistency. The last time he failed to throw at least 7 innings in a start was on July 24, and he went 6.2 innings in that outing while posting yet another Quality Start. He’s been fantastic at home all season with a 3.03 ERA in a very hitter-friendly ballpark and he’s gone 13-0 over 14 starts at Fenway as a result. Tonight, the Red Sox really need another strong outing from their second starter with the division on the line and capable RHP Kevin Gausman pitching for Baltimore, so we’ll see if Porcello can make it 14-0, while potentially adding that FP bonus to an already solid line.

Carlos Rodon: (CWS) vs. CLE DK:$8,700/FD:$8,500

Rodon has been great lately and he’s certainly affordable on both main DFS sites tonight. The young lefty is 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 7 starts and that includes a meeting with this Indians in Cleveland in which he went 6 strong innings and allowed just 2 ER. The Indians are posting a 20.8% K-Rate against LHP this year and they’ve logged 20 Ks over 91 combined career at-bats against Rodon. He’s sporting a 9.29 K/9 ratio at home and has been virtually unhittable with a 2.41 FIP and 27.7% K-Rate against LHB this season so he should do just fine against a lefty-heavy lineup.

Value Play:

Yordano Ventura: (KC) vs. OAK DK:$6,600/FD:$8,700

Well he’s not a value play on FanDuel, but Ventura is worth a look on that DFS site regardless because of his upside tonight. Sure, he’s struggled in three consecutive starts, but those came against elite A.L. offenses (Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox) and not against an Athletics team that is sporting the lowest collective wOBA (.300) with the fewest runs scored in the American League this season. Oakland has been on a slide over the past several months and Ventura is turning his season around with a 3.08 ERA since the ASB. The Royals are fighting desperately to make the playoffs while Oakland has nothing to play for and Ventura has the talent to shut that lineup down and give his team a much-needed Quality Start.

Longshot Pitcher:

Julio Teheran: (ATL) vs. MIA DK:$10,300/FD:$8,400

Going one step further in a fade of Jose Fernandez would be playing his adversary, as Teheran is in position to post a good line at home and comes at a much cheaper price tag. The Braves ace has found his rhythm after spending some time on the DL this summer and he’s 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 18 Ks over his last 3 starts (19 IP). Like Fernandez, this young righty has been much more effective at home with a career 2.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Turner Field. He’ll face a Marlins lineup that is depleted by injuries and mired in slumps, so either way this should be a low-scoring affair, which means relatively low risk involved in using either SP.

Batters

Catcher:

Welington Castillo: (ARI) vs. COL DK: $4,100/FD: $2,900

Castillo came through with a 2-run base hit last night and he could serve as a similarly productive member of a D’Backs stack once again. Arizona (-141) is favored at home tonight against Colorado and weak RHP Jeff Hoffman, who has given up 18 runs and 4 HR over 4 MLB appearances thus far in his career. While 7 of those runs were unearned in his last start, he has to take some blame for giving up that level of production after one defensive mistake, as Hoffman was yanked in the third inning of that outing. D’Backs starter Rubby De La Rosa is also not expected to go very deep into the game, so this contest should involve a lot of shaky long relievers at a hitter-friendly ballpark, which is why the Over/Under is set at 10 runs.

Potential Value

Salvador Perez ($2900/$3200) is a solid value play to consider with the platoon advantage against LHP Sean Manaea.

Longshot

Evan Gattis ($3300/$2800) is always worth a look when the Astros face a LHP and Derek Holland looked rather vulnerable in his last start for the Rangers.

First Base:

Jose Abreu: (CWS) vs. CLE DK:$5,300/FD:$3,300

The White Sox are rarely one of the top stacking options on a full slate, but that’s the case tonight with the most homer-prone SP in baseball toeing the rubber at Cellular Field. Indians RHP Josh Tomlin is sporting a 2.12 HR/9 ratio that is the highest in the Majors amongst qualified pitchers and he’s been more vulnerable in RvR matchups, as RHB are hitting .304 with a .375 wOBA against the 31-year-old this season. Abreu happens to be 5-for-8 with a pair of doubles and a HR in his career against Tomlin and he’s been very consistent with a .342 batting average and .949 OPS since the ASB. Give him a look as the heart of a White Sox stack and as an under priced option in any format on FanDuel.

Potential Value

Dae-Ho Lee ($3300/$3000) is doing a decent job as a platoon specialist for the Mariners and he’ll be worth a look tonight against LHP Tyler Skaggs.

Longshot

Paul Goldschmidt ($5100/$4200) erupted as the heart of a D’Backs stack last night and he’s worth a look in another plus matchup this evening.

Second Base:

Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. TEX DK:$4,500/FD:$3,700

While Twins slugger Brian Dozier ($5500/$4000) is hotter than the sun right now, I think you can fade him against a SP that’s had his number in the past, while Altuve draws a much juicier matchup. The Astros MVP has been slumping a bit lately, but is still flashing plenty of upside with multiple hits and a HR in 2 of his last 3 appearances. Tonight, he’ll face a LHP in Derek Holland, who was lit up by the Mariners in his last start and draws a tougher matchup for a lefty on paper this evening. Current Astros are batting a collective .314 (37-for-118) with a .927 OPS in their careers against Holland and Altuve is 7-for-26 with 3 XBH and a HR. He’s a notable lefty killer with tremendous upside against the platoon and he seems under priced on both main DFS sites ahead of this matchup.

Potential Value

DJ LeMahieu ($3800/$4100) is the most expensive 2B on FD but clearly under priced on DK ahead of a plus matchup against Rubby De La Rosa and the Arizona bullpen.

Longshot

Brandon Phillips ($3700/$3000) continues to steadily produce for the Reds and he’s worth a look in the event that promising young RHP Junior Guerra continues to struggle for Milwaukee.

Third Base:

Jonathan Villar: (MIL) @ CIN DK:$4,800/FD:$3,800

The Brewers are an appealing stack to consider tonight against Reds rookie Tim Adleman, who isn’t giving up a ton of production with his 3.89 ERA over 9 MLB appearances, but it’s the nature of his production that is noteworthy. The young RHP is coughing up a 1.94 HR/9 ratio with a weak 2.00 K/BB ratio, as his 5.88 FIP indicates that his ERA is bound to rise. Villar can do a lot of damage if he’s walked tonight and if Adleman pitches to him, we’ve seen what the pint-sized terror can do, as he just launched his fifth homer over his last 10 appearances last night.

Potential Value

While Yuli Gurriel ($2300/$3000) came up empty in last night’s matchup, he’s still drastically under priced on DK and could serve as a value addition to an Astros stack.

Longshot

Nolan Arenado ($4600/$3700) is a strong GPP play to consider against homer-prone RHP Rubby De La Rosa and the D’Backs bullpen.

Shortstop:

Xander Bogaerts: (BOS) vs. BAL DK:$3,700/FD:$3,700

This position is relatively weak tonight, but thankfully for those playing on DK, Bogaerts sees a huge price drop on that site. He’s not usually worth paying up for when he’s near $5K on that DFS site, but at a mid-tier price tag, he’s a solid option to consider in any format. Bogaerts is hitting .329 at Fenway Park this year and the Red Sox are the best offensive team at home in the Majors with a collective .304 average on the year. He’s been solid lately with 7 hits over his last 5 appearances and flashed some upside with a solo HR last night. While Orioles RHP Kevin Gausman is capable of posting a Quality Start in this tough environment, he is sporting a 4.80 ERA with a .292 BAA on the road and has been touched up for 11 ER over 2 starts (12 IP) against Boston this year.

Potential Value

Ivan De Jesus Jr. ($2900/$2400) would serve as an intriguing punt play if he’s in the Reds lineup with the platoon advantage against RHP Junior Guerra.

Longshot

Carlos Correa ($3700/$3600) is definitely worth a look as part of a potential Astros stack against LHP Derek Holland.

Outfielders:

Charlie Blackmon: (COL) @ ARI DK:$5,400/FD:$4,400

Even though the Rockies and D’Backs are facing off at Chase Field, they’re almost priced as though they’re at Coors Field for good reason. With two short-armed starters going on both sides of the ball, this could turn into a bullpen game and these pitching staffs are two of the worst in the Majors right now. Blackmon has caught fire with 4 doubles and 2 HR over his last 3 appearances and he has plenty of upside due to his speed as well in a plus matchup against RHP Rubby De La Rosa and a mediocre defensive catcher in Welington Castillo.

Ryan Braun: (MIL) @ CIN DK:$4,900/FD:$4,100

Right next to Villar in terms of upside whenever the Brewers draw a plus matchup, Braun should also be considered in any format against Reds rookie Tim Adleman. We mentioned how the rookie is giving up an alarming HR/9 ratio and Adleman is also coughing up a 36.5% Hard Contact Rate when facing RHB this season. Braun has done plenty of damage against the Brewers divisional rivals with 5 HR and 2 SB while batting .330 over 51 at-bats against Reds pitching this year and he’s 1-for-3 off Adleman in a small sample size this season. He might seem like he’s slumping, but he’s still slashing .300/.363/.534 over his last 10 appearances and he could break out with a big line in any given game.

Brandon Drury: (ARI) vs. COL DK:$4,200/FD:$3,000

Drury may just have earned himself more playing time against RHP with a homer last night, as he’s now batting .436 with 3 HR to average 11.8 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances. We’ve covered how Rockies SP Jeff Hoffman is coughing up a ton of long balls thus far in his career and the D’Backs are an absolutely elite offensive team at home against weak pitching. Drury is hitting a full 40 points higher (.294) with an .814 OPS at home this season and he’s certainly worth a look as a mid-tier value on either main DFS site.

Potential Values

Robbie Grossman ($4100/$2900) should bat second for the Twins tonight in a great matchup against struggling RHP Anibal Sanchez.

Franklin Gutierrez ($3700/$3200) should platoon for the Mariners tonight against LHP Tyler Skaggs.

You can consider George Springer ($3600/$3800) in tournament formats tonight because of his great splits against LHP at home this season.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7


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