John E. Sokolowski / USA TODAY Sports

Scouting the MLB DFS, Thursday September 15

We've got an 8-game slate of MLB action this Thursday night and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Devon Travis is a great option given his recent consistency, as he’s batting .404 while hitting safely in 11 consecutive appearances. The sophomore RHB will face a rookie RHP in Daniel Wright, who is coughing up a .466 wOBA with an awful 7.76 FIP against RHB in 2016.

Fade: Orioles young stud Kevin Gausman just went into Fenway Park and outdueled Rick Porcello for a 1-0 win, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a trend develop with Masahiro Tanaka shutting down the Sox. Tanaka is not the same pitcher he was prior to suffering a UCL tear and Boston is the best hitting home team in the Majors.

Weather Report

    No real weather concerns tonight.

Stackable Menu

  1. Blue Jays visiting RHP Daniel Wright
  2. Dodgers visiting RHP Archie Bradley
  3. Royals hosting RHP Daniel Mengden

Longshot Stack: Cubs hosting RHP Jimmy Nelson


Pitchers

Two Studs

Rich Hill: (LAD) @ ARI DK:$12,000/FD:$9,700

While the sledding is going to get a bit tougher at Arizona against a team that crushes lefties, it’s hard to go away from a SP that’s allowed just 1 H and 0 ER over his last 2 outings (13 IP). The Dodgers are seemingly unwilling to use Hill for more than 90 pitches, which limits his upside, but he’s actually declined to give up a run in 3 straight starts and is 8-0 thanks to his immaculate 1.41 ERA and .164 BAA over his last 10 appearances. The D’Backs might have great power numbers against lefties, but also sport the sixth-highest K-Rate (23.5%) in the Majors against LHP and that gives Hill more upside. With a 1.86 FIP and 11.32 K/9 ratio on the road this season, there’s no reason to worry about Hill’s chances of success at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

J.A. Happ: (TOR) @ LAA DK:$8,300/FD:$8,800

Let’s go with another southpaw that’s been fantastic throughout most of the season but draws a less than ideal matchup on the road tonight. Despite their overall struggles, the Angels are sporting a solid .265 collective batting average with the lowest K-Rate (16.8%) in the Majors against LHP this season. Yet Happ is capable or rising to this challenge, as he’s been one of the better pitchers in the A.L. with a .235 BAA and an 80.2% Strand Rate to keep his ERA down at 3.33 this season. The Angels might be able to reach base, but their issue is with driving runners home, as they’ve plated the fifth-fewest runs amongst American League teams this year, so this isn’t exactly a daunting matchup for Happ, especially with the Blue Jays offense looking to jump all over rookie RHP Daniel Wright on the road.

Value Play:

Eduardo Rodriguez: (BOS) vs. NYY DK:$5,900/FD:$7,100

Because of the matchups, Rodriguez is hardly more risky than Yankees “Ace” Mashairo Tanaka in a tough test against the Red Sox (-120) on Fenway. Of course, Fast Eddy comes at a much cheaper price tag and his team is favored in an important rivalry game. As a rookie, Rodriguez pitched very well within himself and he seems to have found that rhythm again with a 2.76 ERA, .195 BAA and a solid 21.2% K-Rate since the ASB. Current Yankees are batting a collective .221 (19-for-86) with 11 Ks in their careers against Rodriguez and this lefty-heavy lineup is aging rapidly while losing it’s collective pop. Rodriguez held the Bronx Bombers to 1 ER on 3 H in a start at Fenway last month and he might be able to post another Quality Start this evening.

Longshot Pitcher:

Adam Wainwright: (STL) @ SF DK:$7,700/FD:$8,800

It’s been an up and down season for Waino as he tries to battle back from a devastating injury, but he’s been more up than down over his last 3 starts. The veteran RHP took advantage of a couple of favorable matchups against the struggling Brewers and pitched well enough to earn a win in Pittsburgh during that span, so he’s certainly capable of matching Johnny Cueto on the road tonight. The Giants are also struggling with a collective .306 wOBA and the fourth-fewest runs scored (215) in the Majors since the ASB. Wainwright handled this lineup back in June when he allowed 2 ER on 5 H over 7 strong innings and the Run Factor is much lower at massive AT&T Park, so give him a look as a somewhat contrarian play on this short slate.

Batters

Catcher:

Yadier Molina: (STL) @ SF DK: $3,100/FD: $2,800

Molina is the heartbeat of the Cardinals team and he’s a perfect example of why Johnny Cueto is not a particularly strong play tonight. The last time Cueto faced the Cardinals he recorded just one K, as Molina and company battled in each bat and drove his pitch count way up. Since then, Yadi has only gotten hotter with a .339 batting average since the ASB and he’s proved to be a steady cash game option in DFS. Molina is 10-for-39 with 2 doubles and 2 HR in his career against Cueto and while he doesn’t have as much upside as the more expensive catchers on the board tonight, he does have a higher floor.

Potential Value

Buster Posey ($3600/$3300) certainly comes at a bargain rate right now and he’s capable of producing if Wainwright struggles tonight.

Longshot

Russell Martin ($3800/$3200) is a longshot to consider as part of a Blue Jays stack against rookie Daniel Wright.

First Base:

Edwin Encarnacion: (TOR) @ LAA DK:$4,800/FD:$3,900

He’s hitless in his last 3 appearances, but prior to that Encarnacion flashed his incredible upside with 2 HR to produce 37 DK points last Sunday. That’s the type of upside we’re talking about again tonight against a vulnerable young RHP who is making just his fourth career start. Daniel Wright has coughed up 11 ER over just 11.1 IP as a starter and seems to be completely overmatched by Major League hitters. Now he’ll face a elite offense that includes several dangerous sluggers and that’s a problem considering his low 38.4% GB Rate and the 2.00 HR/9 ratio he’s posted thus far this season. Give Encarnacion a look at the heart of a Toronto stack this evening.

Potential Value

Eric Hosmer ($4600/$3400) is a solid mid-tier option to consider in cash games with the Royals hosting rookie RHP Daniel Mengden.

Longshot

David Ortiz ($5500/$4300) has decent numbers in his career against Tanaka and is always worth a look in tournaments when he’s playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Second Base:

Devon Travis: (TOR) @ LAA DK:$4,300/FD:$3,300

Let’s continue to pick on Daniel Wright with another Blue Jays bat tonight, as Travis is a great option given his recent consistency. He singled and scored the only run for Toronto yesterday afternoon and is now batting .404 while hitting safely in 11 consecutive appearances. The sophomore RHB is an important energy guy for the Blue Jays and he’s been forced to step up with Josh Donaldson (hip) out of the lineup. Travis is actually doing better in RvR matchups this year and Wright is coughing up a .466 wOBA with an awful 7.76 FIP against RHB in 2016, so give Toronto’s 2B a look in any format.

Potential Value

Whit Merrifield ($3400/$2900) is suddenly producing again for the Royals after a lengthy slump and he’s worth a look as a cheap addition to that stack.

Longshot

Jonathan Schoop ($3800/$3300) has been boom or bust for the Orioles all year and he’ll face a boom-or-bust LHP in Blake Snell tonight.

Third Base:

Manny Machado: (BAL) vs. TB DK:$4,300/FD:$3,900

He’s been relatively quiet lately, but Machado could definitely flash some upside tonight if Blake Snell continues to struggle for the Rays. After a promising start to his rookie campaign, the southpaw has been routinely lit up on his way to a 6.14 ERA over his last 5 appearances. Snell has only made it to the fifth inning in two of those outings and he could give up some early production tonight against an Orioles team that loves to use the high HR Factor in their home ballpark to do damage. Machado is hitting .339 with a .398 wOBA against LHP at home this season and he’s been flashing more power with a .386 wOBA and .282 ISO Mark since August 1. Give him a look as a mid-tier option with a high floor and decent ceiling if the O’s offense gets going.

Potential Value

Jeffrey Marte ($3400/$3100) has been solid for the Angels lately and he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against LHP J.A. Happ.

Longshot

Justin Turner ($4900/$3300) is heating up for the Dodgers and he draws a great matchup against homer-prone RHP Archie Bradley.

Shortstop:

Corey Seager: (LAD) @ ARI DK:$5,400/FD:$4,100

If the Dodgers face a homer-prone RHP, you know which batter is most likely to go yard, as Seager has launched 20 of his 25 bombs while posting a .343 batting average and .967 OPS against righties this year. The likely N.L. Rookie of the Year is fighting through a bruised wrist to hit .350 over his last 10 appearances and he’s still flashing power with 2 doubles and 2 HR during that span. Archie Bradley is having an uninspiring year overall and is allowing LHB to hit .309 with a .393 wOBA. He’s posting a 2.02 WHIP and coughing up a 1.70 HR/9 ratio against the platoon this year, so consider Seager as part of a mini Dodgers stack at Chase Field.

Potential Value

Marcus Semien ($3200/$3000) is providing modest production for the A’s lately and he’s worth a look against mediocre RHP Edinson Volquez.

Longshot

J.J. Hardy ($3600/$2800) is also capable of going yard off LHP Blake Snell or jumping in on a rally or two for the Orioles at home tonight.

Outfielders:

Mike Trout: (LAA) vs. TOR DK:$5,000/FD:$4,200

It’s worth considering Trout even if you play J.A. Happ tonight, because the Angels unquestioned MVP can do damage even the rest of that weak lineup struggles around him. Trout is hitting .329 with a .458 wOBA since August 1 and he’s logged 8 HR and 8 SB to flash his versatile upside during that span. He’s not as dangerous against lefties overall, which explains the price decrease on both main DFS sites, but happens to be 4-for-11 with 3 BB over 14 career plate appearances against Happ and is more than capable of tagging the southpaw this evening.

Jose Bautista: (TOR) @ LAA DK:$4,300/FD:$3,600

A third Blue Jays slugger to consider tonight, Bautista is slowly coming around after missing extended time with a knee injury this season. His average is still down at .225 but he’s reaching base with consistency as he’s drawn 10 walks over his last 10 appearances, and the power could come in a plus matchup against a rookie SP. We mentioned how Daniel Wright is coughing up a 2.00 HR/9 ratio through 5 MLB appearances and struggling more against RHB with power, so Bautista is definitely a GPP candidate with upside if he can get something to drive tonight.

Hunter Pence: (SF) vs. STL DK:$3,900/FD:$3,300

Pence is one of the few Giants batters that’s in a good rhythm right now and he’s helping the perennial contenders right the ship with a .410/.477/.615 slash line over his last 10 appearances. He’s hit safely in 8 straight games and is definitely worth a look even if you want to take a chance on Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright. Pence is a respectable 14-for-51 with 4 doubles and 2 HR in his career against Waino, and obviously most of those at-bats came when the Cardinals ace was in peak form. Now Wainwright is vulnerable and that makes Pence a strong play at a discounted price tag on DK.

Potential Values

Jarrod Dyson ($4400/$2700) is a strong tournament play on FanDuel given his upside as a speed threat against RHP Daniel Mengden.

Brett Gardner ($3500/$2700) is a gamer who should find a way to battle in a LvL matchup against Rodriguez at Fenway.

You can consider Kevin Pillar ($3100/$2400) as another Blue Jays bat to stack tonight against Wright.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7


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