Plays of the Day
Value: Matt Moore has been nothing short of dominant lately. If you ignore his rough start at Coors Field, he’s 3-0 with 3 ER allowed and 25 Ks to average 30.6 DK PPG over his last 3 starts, all of which were difficult matchups against the lefty-killing D’Backs (twice) and the first-place Dodgers. Now he’ll face a Cardinals team that is ranked 23rd in terms of collective batting average (.248) with a 21.7% K-Rate against LHP this season and has very little experience against Moore.
Fade: Brian Dozier has been absolutely en fuego since the ASB and he’s priced accordingly on both main DFS sites. Yet most of his upside comes from his impressive power, but Mets RHP Bartolo Colon knows how to keep the ball down in the zone and avoid the long ball, so Dozier might fall short of value at a massive ballpark this evening.
- Chance of delays in Kansas City and Cincinnati tonight with storms in the area.
- Red Sox hosting RHP Luis Cessa
- Mets hosting RHP Jose Berrios
- Nationals visiting RHP John Gant
- Yankees visiting RHP Clay Buchholz
- Blue Jays visiting RHP Jered Weaver
Longshot Stack: Mariners hosting RHP Collin McHugh
Max Scherzer: (WAS) @ ATL DK:$13,700/FD:$11,000
The Braves have been surprisingly effective against Scherzer this year, but that only slightly diminishes his upside. The unquestioned top SP in DFS right now, Scherzer has been lights out with a 2.37 ERA, .184 BAA and 0.86 WHIP since the ASB, while his strikeout numbers have remained lofty with a 10.43 K/9 ratio over his last 10 appearances. He’s averaging 26.5 DK PPG with 6 Wins during that span and clearly has a great shot to earn his 17th Win of the season with the Nationals (-223) checking in as the biggest favorites on tonight’s 14-game slate, so Scherzer is clearly worth the money given his individual upside and the prospective bonus of pitching for a winning team.
Chris Sale: (CWS) @ KC DK:$12,600/FD:$10,800
I’ll pass on Corey Kluber for a SP with more upside in Sale, who was unlucky enough to take a Loss in his last outing against the Royals despite going 8 strong innings with 2 ER allowed and 12 strikeouts. He’s back in an incredible groove with a 2.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.97 K/9 ratio over his last 9 appearances, yet he’s somehow 1-5 during that span thanks to some really lackluster run support. Tonight, the White Sox (-123) are favored on the road against inconsistent RHP Ian Kennedy, but even if Sale doesn’t get that elusive Win, he can meet value by going deep into the ballgame with more impressive K numbers. Current Royals have some positive splits against Sale in the past, but they’re sporting a collective 24.6% K-Rate against the dominant lefty and have not been up to snuff on offense all year.
Matt Moore: (SF) vs. STL DK:$8,200/FD:$8,000
Aside from a poor start in the thin air at Coors Field, Moore has been nothing short of dominant lately. Ignoring that outing, he’s 3-0 with 3 ER allowed and 25 Ks to average 30.6 DK PPG over his last 3 starts, all of which were difficult matchups against the lefty-killing D’Backs (twice) and the first-place Dodgers. Now he’ll face a Cardinals team that is also difficult to shut down, but the Red Birds are ranked 23rd in terms of collective batting average (.248) with a 21.7% K-Rate against LHP this season. Only Jhonny Peralta has any extensive experience against Moore, who has spent most of his career in the A.L. East and is enjoying the spacious confines of these N.L. parks thus far.
Chris Archer: (TB) @ BAL DK:$9,100/FD:$9,800
Archer is less of a longshot that you might think, as he’s produced double-digit DK points in 10 consecutive appearances and is sporting a solid 2.91 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and .197 BAA during that span. The longshot is that the Rays will beat the Orioles (-101) in Camden Yards against a RHP in Ubaldo Jimenez ($7500/$6400), who is also turning his season around. While Jimenez is a cheap longshot with upside in his own right, I’d be willing to roll with Archer as a GPP play given his 10.82 K/9 ratio since the ASB and the Orioles tendency to swing for the fences. Current O’s are batting a collective .271 with a 23.9% K-Rate in their careers against Archer, who might be lightly owned because of his poor road splits, but he’s been effective in his last two starts at the Astros and Yankees and he could stay hot tonight.
Gary Sanchez: (NYY) @ BOS DK: $4,900/FD: $3,800
Sanchez has been flashing incredible power since he came into the league a couple of months ago and he’s definitely a top option to consider against Clay Buchholz at hitter-friendly Fenway Park this evening. Buccholz pitched well at massive Petco Park last week but came back to earth in a big way with a rough three-inning outing at Toronto and now he’ll face another A.L. East lineup at home, where he’s coughed up a 5.83 ERA with a 1.90 HR/9 ratio this season. Sanchez has done almost all of his damage with a .381 batting average, .504 wOBA and 12 of his 14 homers coming off RHP this year, so he’s an excellent option with upside against a headcase of a righty.
The Red Sox are also worth stacking against Yankees rookie Luis Cess and Sandy Leon ($3900/$2600) is way too cheap on FanDuel in this plus matchup.
Buster Posey ($3800/$3300) logged 4 hits last night and he could stay hot at home against Cardinals rookie RHP Luke Weaver.
Edwin Encarnacion: (TOR) @ LAA DK:$4,600/FD:$4,200
He’s much more appealing at this discounted price tag on DK, but Encarnacion clearly has as much upside as any 1B on the board in his plus matchup. The Blue Jays will look to stay hot after tagging rookie Daniel Wright and the Angels bullpen for 7 runs last night and they’ll face a vulnerable SP in Jered Weaver, who is sporting a 5.05 ERA with a .306 BAA at home this season. Current Blue Jays have a low collective .240 batting average against the veteran RHP, but they’ve launched 8 homers throughout their careers, and E5 is 4-for-13 with a HR and 3 BB in his career against Weaver. This is a much dangerous team with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup and Jose Bautista getting healthy again, so don’t overlook a Toronto stack for a second consecutive night with Encarnacion as a relatively cheap addition on DraftKings.
Miguel Cabrera ($4400/$3400) has excellent career splits against Corey Kluber and he’s a bit too cheap to ignore given his track record.
David Ortiz ($5600/$4300) is a Golden God that feeds off mystical energy from the spirits of Fenway Park and should never be ignored when he faces a RH starter at home.
Dustin Pedoria: (BOS) vs. NYY DK:$4,700/FD:$3,400
Peedy is your guy in cash game formats tonight as he should continue to lead off for the Red Sox at home. He’s been fantastic at Fenway over the past several seasons and is hitting .348 with a .866 OPS at home, as he’s walked (30) more times than he’s struck out (28) over 72 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a rookie RHP in Luis Cessa, who has coughed up 12 ER and a whopping 8 HR over his last 4 appearances and should struggle in the cramped confines of Fenway Park. Cessa is now sporting a rough 23.2% HR/FB ratio with a 32.9% Hard Contact Rate on the season and that makes the Laser Show a great candidate to stay hot in this matchup.
Devon Travis ($3800/$3400) is certainly worth a look as long as he’s leading off for the elite Blue Jays offense.
Brandon Phillips ($4100/$3100) is swinging a hot bat for the Reds and he draws a plus matchup tonight against Pirates veteran Ryan Vogelsong.
Kyle Seager: (SEA) vs. HOU DK:$4,800/FD:$3,400
Seager is a great option at this price tag on FanDuel and a high-upside play to consider at the top of the board on DK tonight. The Mariners are fighting their way into the Wildcard race and will be worth stacking consideration against RHP Collin McHugh, who is sporting a rough 6.20 ERA and .322 BAA over his last 10 appearances. McHugh is allowing lefties to hit .301 with a .357 wOBA this season and coughing up a 22% LD Rate with a 14.3% HR/FB ratio against the platoon. Seager has been flashing a lot of power with a .386 wOBA and 9 HR since August 1 and he’s been more consistent with a .293 batting average at home this season.
Yuli Gurriel ($2500/$3000) remains an excellent value on DK despite drawing a tough matchup against Felix Hernandez in Seattle tonight.
Jake Lamb ($4600/$3500) has been cold lately, but he has fantastic splits against Dodgers RHP Kenta Maeda this year and is therefore worth a look in tournaments.
Jose Reyes: (NYM) vs. MIN DK:$4,200/FD:$2,800 as 3B
He’s a fantastic value option at 3B on FanDuel and has a great floor/ceiling combination on both main DFS sites in a very good matchup tonight. Reyes and the Mets will look to jump all over Twins rookie RHP Jose Berrios, who is sporting a horrific 9.27 ERA with a .327 BAA and 2.02 WHIP on the season. Berrios is allowing LHB to hit .313 with a .374 wOBA and he’s sporting a rough 5.64 BB/9 ratio overall this year. Putting Reyes on base is a bad recipe for the Twins SP given his speed and the rest of the Mets lineup is more than capable of driving him in if the leadoff man reaches.
Asdrubal Cabrera ($3800/$3400) is also worth a look as a Mets bat to use against Berrios.
Did Gregorious ($3200/$2900) is worth a look as a GPP play tonight since he matches up very well against Clay Buchholz.
Trea Turner: (WAS) @ ATL DK:$5,300/FD:$4,100
You simply can’t ignore Turner in any matchup considering how he maintained his stretch of lofty production against Mets ace Noah Syndergaard a few days ago, and of course, he faces a weak RHP in John Gant tonight. The Braves rookie is sporting a 5.14 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP over 3 starts at Turner Field this year and he’s yet to face an elite offensive team in the Nationals. With Trea Turner leading off, Washington is sporting the ninth-highest collective batting average (.265) in the Majors over the last 30 days and Turner is sporting an individual slash line of .364/.391/.636 with 3 HR and 4 SB over his last 10 appearances.
Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) vs. MIN DK:$4,400/FD:$4,100
Because Berrios has coughed up far more XBH and HR to RHB this year, Cespedes emerges as the heart of a Mets stack this evening. The Twins rookie is coughing up a 2.91 HR/9 ratio with a 7.90 FIP and is allowing RHB to post a ridiculous .470 wOBA on the season, while Cespedes has hit for a higher average (.277) with a higher slugging percentage (.501) against RHP throughout his career. He’s been a bit quiet lately, but is poised for a big game tonight at Citi Field.
Hunter Pence: (SF) vs. STL DK:$4,200/FD:$3,300
Pence remains under priced on both main DFS sites, as he remains one of the few Giants swinging a hot bat during their second-half slide. He launched a homer last night, and is now averaging 13.7 DK PPG with a .485 batting average during his current 9-game hitting streak. The Giants will look to remain on track against a rookie RHP in Luke Weaver, who has been solid for the Cardinals lately, but has been more vulnerable with a 4.74 ERA and .295 BAA on the road this year, so give Pence a look at the heart of the Giants lineup.
Andrew McCutchen ($3900/$3600) is finally flashing some upside for the desperate Pirates and he draws a great matchup tonight against RHP Robert Stephenson.
Leonys Martin ($3600/$2900) is worth a look with the platoon advantage tonight against RHP Collin McHugh.
Tyler Holt ($3400/$2400) has been very solid for the Reds lately and he’ll be worth a look if he starts against Ryan Vogelsong.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7