Troy Taormina

Scouting the MLB DFS, Monday September 26

We break down tonight's 10-game MLB slate with a heavy heart following the sad news of the passing of Marlins ace Jose Fernandez. May he rest in peace

Note of the Day

It’s extremely saddening to hear news of the passing of Jose Fernandez. He was not only one of the most promising pitchers in baseball, but by all accounts seemed to be a fantastic young man with a lust for life and love of the sport that permeated throughout everyone he encountered. He will be missed.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Pittsburgh and Washington this evening.

Stackable Menu

  1. Rangers hosting RHP Matt Garza
  2. Indians visiting LHP Buck Farmer
  3. Rays visiting RHP James Shields
  4. Nationals hosting RHP Archie Bradley
  5. Blue Jays hosting RHP Luis Severino

Longshot Stack:Mariners visiting RHP Collin McHugh


Two Studs

Corey Kluber: (CLE) @ DET DK:$13,500/FD:$11,000

He might have had some trouble with the Tigers lineup in the past, but that certainly hasn’t been the case for Kluber this year. The Indians ace is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 9.00 K/9 ratio over 3 meetings with Detroit on the season, and his team is heavily favored on the road with sophomore LHP Buck Farmer going for the Tigers. Kluber has actually posted better numbers away from Progressive Field this season with a 2.97 ERA, .206 BAA and 0.98 WHIP over 15 road starts this year. He’s facing a Detroit lineup that has been boom or bust lately and the heart of that order has gone cold in Miguel Cabrera. That opens the door for another excellent outing from Kluber as he looks to solidify Cleveland’s playoff seeding.

Kyle Hendricks: (CHC) @ PIT DK:$12,000/FD:$10,100

Here’s your preferred cash game option on this 10-game slate, as Hendricks is clearly a very solid play with his league-best 2.06 ERA and a fantastic 0.96 WHIP on the season. He’s been dominant lately with a 1.72 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .186 BAA over his last 10 appearances, with only a handful of solo homers accounting for most of the damage during that span. With the exception of surging veteran Sean Rodriguez, Pittsburgh has been sporting weak numbers over the past several weeks as Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte both continue to struggle, while Hendricks has completely shut down this lineup with 1 ER allowed and 16 Ks to go 2-0 over 2 starts (13 IP) against the Pirates this season.

Value Play:

Sean Manaea: (OAK) @ LAA DK:$7,700/FD:$6,800

After a rather rough start to his career, Manaea has continued to trust his coaches and make the right adjustments to apparently morph himself into a solid MLB starter. He’s now sporting a 2.72 ERA with a .229 BAA and 8.81 K/9 ratio over his last 10 appearances, while posting 12+ DK points in 8 of those 10 outings. The Athletics weak offense has done him little favors as he’s posted a 3-4 record during that span, but Oakland could provide some run support for the young southpaw when they take on vulnerable veteran RHP Jered Weaver tonight at Angels Stadium. In any case, Manaea could limit an Angels team that’s launched the fewest homers (5) with the fifth-lowest collective batting average (.222) in the Majors over the last 14 days and is generally a toothless lineup outside of Mike Trout.

Longshot Pitcher:

Drew Smyly: (TB) @ CWS DK:$7,000/FD:$7,500

If nothing else, you can consider Smyly because his Rays (-120) are somehow road favorites tonight. Notice the pitcher starting opposite Smyly (James Shields) and it’s suddenly not that surprising that the cellar-dwellers of the A.L. East are expected to win on the road, as Shields has been routinely pummeled on his way to a 9.46 ERA and .338 BAA over his last 10 appearances. Smyly has been up and down for Tampa with a 3.81 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to average 16.4 DK PPG during that span, yet he’s made some key adjustments lately to hold the tough Blue Jays and Yankees offenses to just 3 ER over 11.2 IP over his last two outings. He’s yet to face the Northsiders at any point during his career, which is key for a LHP that uses some deception with his delivery, and he does have some individual upside against a White Sox team that’s posted a 21.9% K-Rate against lefties this season.



Steven Vogt: (OAK) @ LAA DK: $3,300/FD: $3,000

You might not get huge returns from Vogt tonight, but he does provide a solid floor at this price tag on either main DFS site. The A’s primary backstop has hit safely in four straight appearances with 3 BB and 4 RBI during that span and he matches up very well against aging RHP Jered Weaver, who has posted a .306 BAA with a 1.93 HR/9 ratio at home this year. Weaver is allowing LHB to hit .335 with a 26.3% LD Rate at Angels Stadium this season and is struggling late in the season with a 5.34 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last 10 appearances. Clearly a platoon specialist at this point, Vogt is 10-for-33 with 2 doubles and 2 HR in his career against Weaver, which makes him worth a look as part of a cheap A’s stack this evening.

Potential Value

Yadier Molina ($3600/$2900) continues to rake for the Cardinals and he draws a solid matchup tonight against rookie RHP Tim Adleman.


Wilson Ramos ($4100/$3300) is really heating up and he’ll face a vulnerable RHP in Archie Bradely at hitter-friendly Camden Yards tonight.

First Base:

Joey Votto: (CIN) @ STL DK:$4,700/FD:$3,700

Rolling with Votto at this diminished price tag seems unlikely to do you wrong on a short slate. While his upside decreases in a LvL matchup against Jaime Garcia, Votto has had no issues with the Cardinals southpaw while going 16-for-43 (.372) with 5 doubles, a HR and an impressive 9 BB over 52 career plate appearances against him. Garcia has not been up to snuff this year with a 4.59 ERA and 19% HR/FB ratio and he’s allowing a startling 26.5% LD Rate when facing LHB this season. Votto has .311 with a solid .363 wOBA against LHP this year and is on a roll once again with a .351/.455/.595 slash line and more walks (7) than strikeouts (5) over his last 10 appearances, so he’s a great cash game play at the very least in this decent matchup.

Potential Value

Adam Lind ($3400/$2600) is worth a look as a cheap cash game play with the platoon advantage tonight against RHP Collin McHugh.


Mike Napoli ($4300/$3400) could get a hold off a weak offering from LHP Buck Farmer and drive it a loooooong way this evening.

Second Base:

Jose Altuve: (HOU) vs. SEA DK:$4,900/FD:$3,800

There are essentially two types of pitchers that Jose Altuve loves to face. He can crush lefties that try to bust him inside, and pepper singles against finesse RHP before doing some damage on the base paths. That’s why he’s an elite play tonight against Mariners RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a very rough outing against Toronto and has looked relatively vulnerable with a 4.11 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last 10 appearances. Altuve is 15-for-35 with a HR, 8 RBI and 2 SB in his career against Iwakuma, which is certainly worth noting given the pitcher’s slow delivery that is beneficial to potential base stealers.

Potential Value

T.J. Rivera ($2700/$2900) is a very strong value play to consider with the platoon advantage against LHP Adam Conley this evening.


There would be nothing wrong with using Logan Forsythe ($4000/$3400) as part of a Rays stack against James Shields tonight.

Third Base:

Adrian Beltre: (TEX) vs. MIL DK:$4,200/FD:$3,400

If it seems like Beltre is constantly listed as one of our studs at third base in the Daily DFS Breakdown, it’s because he’s constantly under priced on both main DFS sites. The veteran continues to produce with a .358 batting average and .451 wOBA during September and he draws a very favorable matchup at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park this evening. Beltre is hitting .315 with 14 HR over 74 appearances at home this year and he’ll face a veteran RHP in Matt Garza, who is posting a 5.58 ERA with a .312 BAA and 1.71 WHIP on the road. Beltre happens to be 11-for-26 with 3 HR in his career against Garza and he comes into this contest riding high with 9 hits over his last 6 games.

Potential Value

Ryon Healy ($3600/$3200) came through for Oakland last night and he’ll draw a great matchup this evening against Jered Weaver.


Hernan Perez ($4000/$3000 as OF on FD) has plenty of upside as part of a stack of Brewers RHB against Rangers LHP Martin Perez.


Brad Miller: (TB) @ CWS DK:$4,600/FD:$3,700

After a cold spell, Miller is raking once again for the Rays with 3 XBH and 2 HR during his current 6-game hitting streak. The unassuming lefty power hitter will have a great chance to do some damage tonight against RHP James Shields, who is posting a 1.69 WHIP against the platoon and clearly struggling overall with a 2.03 HR/9 ratio and 6.11 FIP on the season. Miller happens to be 3-for-7 with a HR and SB in his career against Shields, while he’s flashed plenty of upside with a .268 ISO Mark against the platoon this season. Give him a look as a mid-tier option with individual upside or as the heart of a potential Rays stack this evening.

Potential Value

Love Jose Peraza ($4000/$3500) as a cash game play against LHP Jaime Garcia


Jose Reyes ($4100/$2900 as 3B on FD) continues to serve as a boom or bust option atop the Mets boom or bust offense and he’ll be worth a look against struggling LHP Adam Conley.


Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ARI DK:$5,600/FD:$4,100

He’s slowed down lately as Turner draws some respect from MLB pitchers, but he could break out in tonight’s matchup. Diamondbacks top prospect Archie Bradley has posted a 5.18 ERA with a 36.9% Hard Contact Rate over two MLB seasons because he’s let to learn that discretion is the better part of valor, so he might go right after Turner, with positive results for the Nationals rookie. Turner’s doing more damage with a .341 batting average and .405 wOBA to go along with a .265 ISO Mark against RHP this season and he’s an elite dual threat that could go yard off Bradley or swipe a bag against the inexperienced SP.

Yoenis Cespedes: (NYM) @ MIA DK:$4,500/FD:$3,900

Cespedes left Sunday’s blowout win over the Phillies with dizzy spells that are probably just related to dehydration and he should be good to go in another plus matchup tonight. Marlins LHP Adam Conley will start with a heavy heart in place of the late Jose Fernandez, and he’s been struggling lately with 11 ER allowed over his last 2 appearances (9 IP). Cespedes has crushed lefties with a .354 batting average and .455 wOBA against the platoon this season and he’s worth a look as the heart of a potential Mets stack this evening.

Kevin Kiermaier: (TB) @ CWS DK:$4,200/FD:$3,500

He remains a GPP play because he still seems a bit rusty after missing most of the season, but there’s no denying Kiermaier’s upside in this matchup. James Shields has been lit up all year and we mentioned how vulnerable he is against the long ball. He’s allowing LHB to post a .372 wOBA this season and Kiermaier has started to find his rhythm with multiple hits in 2 of his last 4 appearances, so give him a look if he’s batting in favorable position tonight.

Potential Values

Nori Aoki ($3900/$2900) is worth a look as a relatively safe play to consider against RHP Collin McHugh.

Adam Duvall ($3500/$2700) has plenty of potential with the platoon advantage tonight against Jaime Garcia.

Brandon Guyer ($3300/$2700) is definitely worth a look as an Indians RHB to use against southpaw Buck Farmer.

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