Steve Mitchell, USA Today

Scouting the MLB DFS, Wednesday September 28

We've got a 14-game slate of MLB action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown has you covered with great options on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Angels SP Alex Meyer is posting a 5.91 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and a troublesome 6.75 BB/9 ratio through 6 appearances this year. The A’s have a few intriguing options including rookie Ryon Healy, who is sporting a solid 88.3% Z-Contact Rate (on pitches inside the strike zone) this year, while logging 7 hits over his last 3 appearances. Healy is hitting .342 on the road this year and batting .354 this month, so give him a look in cash games at this modest price tag.

Fade: Cole Hamels was great in his last outing, but now he faces a lineup that loves taking on lefties. With Jonathan Villar coming around and Ryan Braun showing plenty of pop in limited spots, you have to worry about the Rangers southpaw’s chances of meeting value in this hitter friendly ballpark.

Weather Report

    Storms could lead to delays in Washington and Detroit tonight. Strong winds expected to be blowing in from CF at Yankee Stadium.

Stackable Menu

  1. Rangers hosting RHP Chase Anderson
  2. Rays visiting RHP Miguel Gonzalez
  3. Red Sox visiting RHP Bryan Mitchell
  4. Angels hosting RHP Sonny Gray
  5. Athletics visiting RHP Alex Meyer

Longshot Stack:Cardinals hosting RHP Anthony DeSclafani


Pitchers

Two Studs

Jake Arrieta: (CHC) @ PIT DK:$11,500/FD:$11,000

He’s priced on DK as though he’s on a pitch count or will be limited with the Cubs about enter the postseason, but Arrieta proved that he can put up big numbers even in limited action. He only needed 99 pitches to shut down the Cardinals over 7 innings, as he struck out 10 and allowed just 5 hits in that dominant effort. It’s probably more important for the Cubbies that they get their ace right before the playoffs than that they save him based on some perceived innings limit and he’ll get a great opportunity to build on the momentum of his last start against a watered down Pirates lineup tonight. Arrieta might have struggled in his last start against Pittsburgh, but now that Starling Marte (back) is out and so is Josh Harrison (groin), this matchup has become much less daunting.

Jeff Samardzija: (SF) vs. COL DK:$8,900/FD:$9,400

He’s twice dominated the Rockies at Coors Field this season and has to draw consideration against that same lineup at home tonight. The Shark has been feeding with a 2.40 ERA and .214 BAA over his last 9 appearances to average 19.5 DK PPG during that span. Current Rockies are batting .262 with as many strikeouts (34) as hits in their careers against Samardzija and they’ve managed just 6 runs over 22.2 innings against him this year. The lower Run Factor at massive AT&T Park has kept his ERA down to 3.56 at home this season and should help him avoid any serious damage in this matchup tonight.

Value Play:

Francisco Liriano: (TOR) vs. BAL DK:$8,400/FD:$7,800

The Blue Jays new acquisition was excellent in his last start, limiting the Yankees to just 3 H and 0 ER over 6 IP, and that’s the type of controlled start they hope to see from each turn in the rotation as they chase a Wild Card spot. Tonight, Liriano will look to stymy a struggling Orioles squad that’s sporting the lowest collective batting average (.234) amongst A.L. teams with a high 22.2% K-Rate against LHP this season. The O’s are only batting .215 with the second-fewest runs scored in the American League over the last 14 days and they’re worth picking on until they can right the ship.

Longshot Pitcher:

Clay Buchholz: (BOS) @ NYY DK:$5,700/FD:$6,300

Throwing your lot in with Buchholz is always a scary proposition, but he’s really turning it around after being given a second chance to make an impact in the Red Sox rotation. Obviously getting elite run support will help a pitcher’s confidence, and he’s run with it by allowing a total of 4 ER with Wins in 3 of his last 4 outings. Granted, those impressive starts are sandwiched by an implosion at Toronto, but he also shut down the demoralized Yankees during that span and might have the benefit of heavy winds blowing into the ballpark this evening. He’s been much better away from Fenway all year and his teammates could put up a ton of runs against converted reliever Bryan Mitchell.

Batters

Catcher:

Yadier Molina: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $3,300/FD: $2,900

Molina came through with two more hits and 10 DK points last night, as the Cardinals did indeed turn the tables with a blowout win over the Reds on Tuesday. Now he’s even cheaper in a matchup that might’ve seemed more difficult a couple of weeks ago, but Reds RHP Anthony DeSclafani has struggled in each of his last three appearances, coughing up 9 ER with 6 BB over his last two outings against the Brewers and Pirates. If he can’t handle two shorthanded teams with iffy motivation, he should have a tough team retiring a Cardinals team that is fighting tooth and nail for a Wildcard spot, and Molina is still the heart and soul of this team with his excellent .357 batting average during the second half of the year.

Potential Value

Jose Lobaton ($3000/$2500) is going to have to step up as an everyday player for the Nationals now and he draws a great matchup out of the gate against RHP Shelby Miller.

Longshot

Buster Posey ($3800/$3600) is really heating up and he’s worth a look at this discounted price tag on DraftKings.

First Base:

Paul Goldschmidt: (ARI) @ WAS DK:$5,500/FD:$3,600

Goldy has been one of the best hitters against LHP in the Majors over the past couple of seasons and he’s been a particularly tough out for this southpaw. Gio Gonzalez has coughed up 7 hits, including 2 XBH and 2 SB, over 9 career plate appearances against Goldschmidt, while he’s basically retired him twice out of blind luck. Gonzalez has not been up to snuff this year with a 4.51 ERA and he’s struggling lately with a 5.60 ERA over his last 9 appearances. Goldschmidt is still a lefty-killer with a .358/.497/.592 slash line against the platoon this year and he remains relatively cheap on FanDuel.

Potential Value

Victor Martinez ($3900/$3200 as C on FD) is suddenly raking for the Tigers and he draws a good matchup tonight against converted reliever Zach McAllister.

Longshot

Love the idea of using David Ortiz ($5600/$4300) in a bounce back game against homer-prone RHP Bryan Mitchell at Yankee Stadium.

Second Base:

Dustin Pedroia: (BOS) @ NYY DK:$4,400/FD:$3,500

If you’re looking for the highest floor with a decent amount of upside at 2B tonight, Pedroia is your guy. The Red Sox are worth stacking as per usual in a plus matchup tonight against RHP Bryan Mitchell, who has managed to fool the Blue Jays in two starts, but otherwise struggled as a member of the Yanks rotation with by coughing up 10 runs (8 earned) over 2 starts (just 7 IP) against the Dodgers and these Red Sox. Peedy was cold during that meeting on Sep 17, but is raking once again with 6 hits, 2 HR and 7 RBI over his last 3 appearances. He’s batting .320 and is leading off for the best offense in baseball, so what’s not to like about Pedroia at this mid-tier price tag?

Potential Value

Cesar Hernandez ($4100/$3100) also offers a high floor against RHP Mike Foltynewicz this evening.

Longshot

Whit Merrifield ($3400/$2900) put up another solid line last night and he’s a longshot to keep rolling against tough Twins RHP Ervin Santana.

Third Base:

Ryon Healy: (OAK) @ LAA DK:$4,000/FD:$3,200

Healy is one of the few A’s batters that you can feel really comfortable about in one of the intriguing stacks tonight. The Angels are sending a sophomore RHP to the mound in Alex Meyer, and he’s posting a 5.91 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and a troublesome 6.75 BB/9 ratio through 6 appearances this year. He’s been a heavy strikeout, heavy walk type of pitcher in each of his two brief seasons thus far and could struggle against a discipline hitter like Healy, who is sporting a solid 88.3% Z-Contact Rate (on pitches inside the strike zone) this year, while logging 7 hits over his last 3 appearances. Healy is hitting .342 on the road this year and batting .354 this month, so give him a look in cash games at this modest price tag.

Potential Value

Adonis Garcia ($3600/$2900) is a good bet for production tonight with the platoon advantage against LHP Adam Morgan.

Longshot

Jonathan Villar ($5000/$4200) continued to flash his limitless upside last night and he’s worth a look against a LH starter, even if it happens to be Rangers ace Cole Hamels.

Shortstop:

Jose Reyes: (NYM) @ MIA DK:$4,600/FD:$3,000 as 3B

Reyes continues to flash upside for the Mets and he remains dramatically cheaper on FanDuel regardless of the matchup. He’ll definitely be worth a look on either main DFS site tonight with the platoon advantage against struggling Marlins RHP Jose Urena, who has coughed up 12 ER over his last 2 appearances and is sporting a 6.36 ERA over his last 9 starts. Urena is particularly vulnerable against the platoon, allowing LHB to hit .292 with a 23.5% LD Rate this year and he’s posting a weak 1.73 K/BB ratio against lefties. Reyes is getting on base consistently and is always a speed threat, plus he’s showcasing some surprising power with 3 XBH and a HR over his last 8 appearances.

Potential Value

Brandon Crawford ($3300/$3000) was huge as part of a Giants stack last night and he could have another solid game at home against RHP Tyler Chatwood.

Longshot

Brad Miller ($4500/$3700) has been steady for the Rays and has the potential to go yard tonight off mediocre RHP Miguel Gonzalez.

Outfielders:

Trea Turner: (WAS) vs. ARI DK:$5,600/FD:$4,100

The Nats are pretty much Turner’s team now with Bryce Harper (thumb), Daniel Murphy (leg) and Wilson Ramos (knee) all injured. The rookie has been their best hitter for the past couple of months with a .344 batting average and .399 wOBA since August 1 and that makes him a truly elite option to consider against vulnerable D’Backs SP Shelby Miller. The former Braves hurler is sporting a rough 6.47 ERA with a 1.31 HR/9 ratio on the year and he’s giving up a 23.4% LD Rate when facing RHB. Turner happens to hit for a higher average (.346) against righties and he’s comfortable at home, where he’s already totaled 11 XBH, 6 HR and 15 SB through 32 games.

J.D. Martinez: (DET) vs. CLE DK:$4,200/FD:$3,400

Use him in cash games, or GPPs, because Martinez is simply not making too many outs these days. He’s been the Tigers most consistent hitter since the ASB with a .349/.412/.583 slash line during that span and he’s launched 15 doubles and 10 homers over 51 games during the second half. Tonight the Tigers are hosting a converted reliever in Zach McAllister, who has been solid over 52 appearances out of the bullpen this year, but posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 67 starts throughout his career and remains vulnerable when he has to make multiple rounds through a lineup.

Jay Bruce: (NYM) @ MIA DK:$4,100/FD:$3,200

Bruce and teammate Yoenis Cespedes ($4300/$3900) homered last night and they have that type of upside in tonight’s matchup against Urena as well. Yet the Marlins starters’ struggles against the platoon and Bruce’s consistency lately seem to make him the superior option in this matchup. The former Reds LHB is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and a 2B over his last 4 appearances and he’s been effective on the road all season, so give him a look against a SP that’s been very vulnerable of late.

Potential Values

Scott Schebler ($3900/$3200) is raking lately for the Reds and will be worth a look with the platoon advantage against RHP Mike Leake.

Carlos Beltran ($3700/$3800) remains an excellent value on DK and could serve as a great addition to a Rangers stack against RHP Chase Anderson.

He blew up for 26 DK points last night, yet Hunter Pence ($3400/$2800) remains very cheap on both main DFS sites.


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