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Scouting the MLB DFS, Thursday September 29

We break down Thursday's slate of MLB action with the top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Cardinals rookie RHP is Alex Reyes 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and .188 BAA while striking out 46 batters over 11 appearances (10 starts) this year. Tonight, his team will be favored at home against Dan Straily and the Reds, who are dealing with injuries to several rotational players in that lineup. Reyes has only allowed one HR through those 11 appearances and he’s allowed just 1 ER with a .119 BAA over 12.1 IP at Busch Stadium, so you could do worse for a value play on this short slate.

Fade: Danny Duffy has been boom or bust for the Royals lately and he really burned anyone that took a chance on him in his last start. Avoid him against a Twins team that can mash lefties.

Weather Report

    Storms could lead to delays in Pittsburgh and Chicago (White Sox) tonight.

Stackable Menu

  1. Mariners hosting RHP Kendall Graveman
  2. Pirates hosting RHP Rob Zastryzny
  3. Yankees hosting RHP Henry Owens
  4. Athletics visiting LHP Ariel Miranda
  5. Cubs visiting RHP Ivan Nova

Longshot Stack:Braves hosting RHP Jeremy Hellickson


Pitchers

Two Studs

Johnny Cueto: (SF) vs. COL DK:$11,200/FD:$9,900

The Giants are one of the few teams that desperately need wins at this late juncture in the season, which is why they’re starting Cueto (groin) despite the fact that he’ll have to pitch through some pain. He’s been a competitor all year and has dominated the Rockies through three starts, allowing just 2 ER with 16 Ks over 23.1 IP against Colorado. Cueto handled the Rockies in the thin air at Coors, but he has definitely enjoyed the spacious confines of AT&T Park, where he’s 7-3 with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.81 ERA on the season. He’s not exactly oozing with upside, but given the circumstances, he’s a good bet to pitch deep into the ballgame with the season on the line.

Chris Archer: (TB) @ CWS DK:$9,100/FD:$9,500

Early in the season, Archer was a very risky play, especially away from Tropicana Field, but he’s bucked that trend by pitching very consistently in all venues over the past couple months. The Rays young ace is sporting a 3.22 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and .218 BAA to go along with a 10.21 K/9 ratio over his last 10 appearances, four of which have come on the road against tough lineups. The White Sox have not been a particularly tough matchup this season and they’re starting to mail it in at this point. Current White Sox have very limited plate appearances to draw upon against Archer, who can be extremely deceptive with a slider that falls of the table. That’s his strikeout pitch, and it should be effective against a team that’s sporting a 21% K-Rate over the last two weeks.

Value Play:

Alex Reyes: (STL) vs. CIN DK:$7,400/FD:$5,700

The Cardinals have pulled yet another prospect out of their incredible system with positive results, as Reyes is off to a great start so far in his career. He’s 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and .188 BAA while striking out 46 batters over 11 appearances (10 starts) this year. Tonight, his team will be favored at home against Dan Straily and the Reds, who are dealing with injuries to several rotational players in that lineup. Reyes has only allowed one HR through those 11 appearances and he’s allowed just 1 ER with a .119 BAA over 12.1 IP at Busch Stadium, so you could do worse for a value play on this short slate.

Longshot Pitcher:

Ublado Jimenez: (BAL) @ TOR DK:$8,100/FD:$6,700

If you’re looking for one of the relatively cheap options with some upside on this short slate, Jimenez can provide that with his strikeout potential. The Orioles RHP has turned his season around with a 3.31 ERA, .189 BAA and a tidy 1.00 WHIP over his last 10 appearances while striking out 26 batters over his last 4 starts. He struggled against Toronto much earlier this season when the Blue Jays were running hot and he was ice cold, but the tables have turned and Toronto has been shut down recently by some far less talented pitchers. Jimenez has issues between the ears, but nobody can question his arm and therefore his upside at this price tag.

Batters

Catcher:

Yadier Molina: (STL) vs. CIN DK: $3,300/FD: $3,000

As long as he’s hitting .457 over his last 10 appearances, I’ll consider Molina in cash games. Tonight this Cardinals will face a RHP in Dan Straily, who is relatively solid, but he was wild in his last outing against St. Louis with 7 walks and is frankly lucky he didn’t melt down at any point in that home start. Now he’ll face a motivated lineup on the road, as the Cardinals look to keep pace with the Giants and Mets in the Wildcard chase, and Molina is the heart and soul of that team, which would make it shocking if he didn’t come up with some production this evening.

Potential Value

Buster Posey ($3100/$3800) should not be ignored as a great per dollar option on DK tonight even if he’s facing Rockies ace RHP Jon Gray.

Longshot

Willson Contreras ($3800/$2900) is hitting his stride for the Cubs late in the season and he’s worth a look against struggling RHP Ivan Nova.

First Base:

Freddie Freeman: (ATL) vs. PHI DK:$5,200/FD:$4,200

The Braves are relishing their role as spoilers and Freeman is leading the charge with a .500 batting average and a ridiculous 1.487 OPS to average 14.8 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances. Tonight, his squad will face off with Jeremy Hellickson, who has imploded in three of his last five starts, including a rough start at home against the Braves on Sep 2. Freeman is absolutely raking with a .521 wOBA against RHP this month and he’s matched up well against Hellickson thus far, so roll with him as an upper-tier cash game option.

Potential Value

John Jaso ($3200/$2800) is worth a look after hit for a cycle last night.

Longshot

Would consider Wil Myers ($5000/$3500) as a high-upside option who might be lightly owned tonight.

Second Base:

Cesar Hernandez: (PHI) @ ATL DK:$4,500/FD:$3,100

Hernandez remains so affordable on both main DFS sites that he’s become an easy option for cash game lineups. He’s batting .361 with an absurd .531 OBP over his last 10 appearances, as the Phillies offense is coming alive late in a lost season. Tonight, they’ll look to rally against a veteran RHP in Josh Collmenter, who hardly misses any bats, which bodes well for Cesar and his 89.7% Z-Contact Rate this season.

Potential Value

DJ LeMahieu ($3200/$3200) is under priced on DK even when he’s facing Giants ace Johnny Cueto.

Longshot

Logan Forsythe ($3400/$2900) might be worth a look in GPP formats against LHP Jose Quintana.

Third Base:

Justin Turner: (LAD) @ SD DK:$4,100/FD:$3,500

The Dodgers have already locked up first place in the N.L. West, but they’re still going to maintain some momentum heading into the playoffs by beating up on the lowly Padres. Tonight, San Diego is sending LHP Christian Friedrich to the mound, which puts Turner in play with the platoon advantage. He’s struggled a bit against lefties this year, but that’s keeping his price tag down in a game that could wind up in the hands of the bullpens by the middle innings. He was riding hot before getting a day off on Wednesday and should be fresh for this solid matchup.

Potential Value

Adonis Garcia ($3800/$2800) is a consistent hitter and he could serve as a solid addition to a Braves stack this evening.

Longshot

Ryon Healy ($3700/$3300) can be used in any format as a cheap play with upside against Mariners LHP Ariel Miranda.

Shortstop:

Ketel Marte: (SEA) vs. OAK DK:$2,700/FD:$2,700

You can use Marte as a reasonable punt play and a great way to save salary and a somewhat weak position tonight. The Mariners should be all over young RHP Kendall Graveman, who has made some great starts at times, but struggles against that platoon. He’s allowing a 31% Hard Contact Rate and posting a 4.71 xFIP in his career against LHB and Marte is one of several feisty lefties on Seattle’s roster that will make it tough for him on the road tonight. With 4 hits over his last 3 appearances, he’s a decent cash game option considering the discount.

Potential Value

Jose Peraza ($3900/$3600) is worth a look as long as you’re not putting too many eggs in the basket with Cardinals rookie Alex Reyes.

Longshot

Didi Gregorious ($3700/$3100) is a decent bet for a dinger at Yankee Stadium tonight against Red Sox RHP Henry Owens.

Outfielders:

Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. OAK DK:$4,900/FD:$4,000

I’m not sure if I’d use Cruz in cash games, especially at that price tag on FanDuel, but he’s worth a look in tournaments as the heart of a Mariners stack against Graveman. The big man has come back from a back strain and was raking with 8 H, including 4 HR and 8 RBI over 4 starts before going hitless last night. He’s 10-for-15 with a HR in his career against Graveman, who was pummeled for 12 H and 8 ER over 5 IP when he faced the Mariners earlier this season and could struggle on the road tonight.

Ender Inciarte: (ATL) vs. PHI DK:$4,400/FD:$3,500

Inciarte is the cash game play you can consider tonight, as he’s still quite affordable despite his sustained production. The Braves LHB is batting .351 since the ASB and maintaining that average with a .386/.458/.463 slash line over his last 10 appearances. When Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson struggles, he usually struggles against lefties, as he’s posting a 1.43 WHIP with a 28.9% LD Rate against LHB this season, so Inciarte has a good chance to keep getting on base for the suddenly surging Braves.

Matt Kemp: (ATL) vs. PHI DK:$3,700/FD:$3,300

Play some YOLO ball with Freeman, Inciarte and Kemp as a mini Braves stack tonight against Hellickson. While the other two have been hot lately, Kemp has flashed upside on occasion with his new team and has 3 HR over his last 15 at-bats. He happens to be 7-for-18 with 2 XBH and a HR in his career against Hellickson and remains capable of going yard if a pitcher grooves him a fastball up in the zone.

Potential Values

Chris Young ($4000/$2600) should crack the Red Sox lineup tonight with the platoon advantage against LHP C.C. Sabathia.

Ezequiel Carrera ($3200/$2200) would be an intriguing option if he’s batting towards the top of the Blue Jays lineup tonight.

ConsiderLeonys Martin ($3600/$2700) as a cash game play or an addition to a Mariners stack.


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