Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Scouting the MLB DFS, Saturday October 1

We concentrate on tonight's 8-game slate of MLB action and bring you the top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: Athletics RHP Jharel Cotton is both a value play and likely the second-best option on the board tonight despite facing a tough Mariners on the road. He’s sporting a 1.44 ERA thanks to his minuscule 0.68 WHIP and 3.3% BB Rate over 4 starts this season. He’s also limited the long ball, which is one of the Mariners main weapons, so he could shut down this lineup if he starts to get rolling tonight.

Fade: I wouldn’t want any part of J.A. Happ at Fenway Park against a red-hot Red Sox team regardless, but the foreboding forecast in Boston this evening makes him an even more risky option.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays or even a postponement in Boston tonight.

Stackable Menu

  1. Brewers visiting RHP Jeff Hoffman
  2. Rangers hosting RHP Jake Odorizzi
  3. Rockies hosting RHP Wily Peralta
  4. Tigers visiting RHP Aaron Blair
  5. Rays visiting RHP Colby Lewis

Longshot Stack: Diamondbacks hosting LHP Clayton Richard


Pitchers

Two Studs

Tyler Skaggs: (LAA) vs. HOU DK:$9,600/FD:$7,300

Thanks to mother nature’s potential effect on games in Boston and Chicago tonight, Skaggs seems to be the de facto top option as he prepares to face an Astros team that was just eliminated from playoff contention. That’s usually a let down for a squad that’s been fighting on the off chance that they could sneak in and grab a Wild Card spot, so Skaggs matchup improves because the motivation may lack and manager A.J. Hinch might even rest a few guys that played like hell all season. Even while they were fighting for a spot, Houston posted a collective .247 batting average and weak .308 wOBA over the last 30 days and the Astros are sporting the fourth-highest K-Rate (23.5%) in the Majors this season. Skaggs is rolling with 21 Ks and just 3 ER allowed while going 6 strong innings in each of his last 3 starts and he’s more comfortable at Angels Stadium, where he’s posted a 2.46 ERA and .222 BAA over 3 starts this season.

Jharel Cotton: (OAK) @ SEA DK:$6,600/FD:$5,500

Cotton is both our value play and likely the second-best option on the board tonight despite facing a tough Mariners on the road. His matchups have almost always been difficult, but he’s passed each test with flying colors, including spinning seven innings of one-run ball against the mighty Rangers offense in his last outing. Cotton is sporting a 1.44 ERA thanks to his minuscule 0.68 WHIP and 3.3% BB Rate over 4 starts this season. He’s also limited the long ball, which is one of the Mariners main weapons, so he could shut down this lineup if he starts to get rolling tonight.

Value Play:

Eduardo Rodriguez: (BOS) vs. TOR DK:$6,700/FD:$7,300

The Red Sox are still playing for seeding and looking to keep a heated rival out of the playoffs, so it’s not as if they’ll sit Rodriguez down after a few innings simply due to concerns about fatigue. However, the forecast in Boston is foreboding, as I can attest by simply looking out my window right now, which makes Fast Eddy a somewhat risky play if this game even winds up getting played. However, if the rain is light like it was last night, the MLB would certainly prefer to get the game in on a Saturday night and if that’s the case, Rodriguez would be a solid option against a Blue Jays team against which he just posted a Quality Start in Toronto. He’s handled the Orioles and Rays in each of last two outings and seems to feed off the momentum of his team’s streaking ways.

Longshot Pitcher:

James Shields: (CWS) vs. MIN DK:$6,900/FD:$6,900

Weather is also a concern in this game and Shields has a tendency to implode that is also a major concern if you’re considering him, but he does have some upside as a GPP play in this matchup. The Twins climbed on the back of MVP candidate Brian Dozier for a couple of months, but he’s gone cold, and now the team is sporting the lowest collective batting average (.231) with the second-highest K-Rate (26.2%) in the American League over the last 30 days. Shields has been the laughing stock of the DFS community throughout most of the season and he struggled in Minnesota in early September, yet he’s been quality in 3 of his last 4 outings and has a chance to shut down a lineup that’s falling apart as the season comes to an end.

Batters

Catcher:

Martin Maldonado: (MIL) @ COL DK: $3,000/FD: $3,200

Maldonado walked in 3 of his 4 plate appearances at Coors Field last night, but he might flash more upside in the second game of that series. That’s a trend we usually see from teams as they visit the thin air out in Denver and begin to adjust the heightened Run Factor at Coors, while the Brewers dangerous lineup also draws a plus matchup against rookie RHP Jeff Hoffman. The Rockies SP has allowed a whopping 27 runs (23 ER) and 7 HR over just 5 Major League starts and only two of those came in his hitter-friendly ballpark at home. His presence on the mound instead of solid LHP Tyler Anderson gives everyone in the Brewers lineup a huge uptick in value tonight.

Potential Value

Tony Wolters ($3000/$3000) could start for the Rockies at Coors Field with the platoon advantage against RHP Wily Peralta.

Longshot

Welington Castillo ($4300/$2800) is a nice cheap option on FD with plenty of upside in a home tilt against LHP Clayton Richard.

First Base:

Miguel Cabrera: (DET) @ ATL DK:$5,500/FD:$3,900

Thriving in the opportunity to be clutch as the Tigers chase one of the last remaining Wild Card spots in the American League, Miggy homered twice last night and has now logged 4 bombs over his last 3 appearances. Has batting .400 with an absurd 1.328 OPS over his last 10 appearances and tonight he’s facing a goofy-looking rookie RHP named Aaron Blair, who is 1-7 with a 8.02 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over 14 appearances this season. Blair has struggled even worse since his most recent call-up, allowing 5 ER to the lowly Marlins offense last Saturday, and he should have a trouble with a desperate Tigers team this evening.

Potential Value

Jose Abreu ($3300/$3200) draws a great matchup against Twins LHP Hector Santiago this evening and he’s under priced on DK despite his recent slump.

Longshot

Definitely consider Chris Carter ($4900/$3900) as a potential addition to a Brewers stack against homer-prone RHP Jeff Hoffman.

Second Base:

DJ LeMahieu: (COL) vs. MIL DK:$4,900/FD:$3,900

Every time we mention DJ as an elite cash game play, he seems to exceed expectations with a key XBH or SB to flash his occasional upside. Once again, he represents a player with a lofty floor tonight considering his league-best .348 batting average is inflated by his .391 batting average at Coors Field this season. The Rockies will host a vulnerable RHP in Wily Peralta, who has been much better of late, but is still sporting a 1.68 WHIP with a .323 BAA on the road this season and should struggle at this hitter-friendly ballpark.

Potential Value

Devon Travis ($3700/$3500) would be a solid value play to consider against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez if the game gets played at Fenway tonight.

Longshot

Use Brian Dozier ($4200/$4100) at a discounted price tag on DK if you believe that James Shields will once again get rocked by the Twins.

Third Base:

Nolan Areando: (COL) vs. MIL DK:$5,100/FD:$4,300

Continuing with a potential Rockies stack against Peralta this evening, Colorado’s best hitter comes into this plus matchup hot, having logged 6 hits with a HR and 2 doubles over his last 4 appearances. Arenado needed no adjustment period to start raking at Coors Field, where he’s sporting a .315 batting average with a .970 OPS and 25 homers over 77 appearances this season. Peralta is sporting a 17.8% HR/FB ratio this season that is sure to be inflated by the thin air in this stadium and Arenado happens to be 3-for-5 with a double in a limited sample of at-bats against the Brewers starter.

Potential Value

Ryon Healy ($3400/$3500) remains very under priced on DK ahead of a decent matchup against mediocre RHP Hisashi Iwakuma.

Longshot

Adrian Beltre ($4100/$3500) and the Rangers are still playing for something and they could tag struggling RHP Jake Odorizzi at home this evening.

Shortstop:

Jonathan Villar: (MIL) @ COL DK:$5,100/FD:$4,500 as 3B on FD

Clearly, you’re not going to be able to pay for all these premium hitters at Coors Field this evening, but with very few expensive SP options on the board, it’s possible to get some of the premium bats on both sides. Villar only managed a single over four at-bats last night, yet he should continue to adjust to the thin air in Colorado and he could make a serious impact as the head of a Brewers stack against weak RHP Jeff Hoffman. The Rockies are an easy target for potential base stealers and Villar has already swiped 2 bags off their catchers over 4 games played this season. He also has tremendous power that will be inflated by the Run Factor at Coors and is a dynamite GPP play this evening.

Potential Value

Dansby Swanson ($3500/$3300) is providing solid production for the Braves and that should continue tonight against struggling RHP Jordan Zimmerman.

Longshot

Brad Miller ($4500/$3400) is struggling lately, but he has tremendous upside against vulnerable RHP Colby Lewis.

Outfielders:

David Dahl: (COL) vs. MIL DK:$5,000/FD:$3,700

Choosing between the Rockies trio of lefties in the OF might decide GPPs this evening, as all of them have tremendous upside in this matchup. Peralta has posted a 5.20 FIP with a 1.40 HR/9 ratio against LHB this season after putting up a 1.48 HR/9 ratio while allowing lefties to post a .376 wOBA last year. While Charlie Blackmon seems like the safest option as Colorado’s likely leadoff hitter, he’s only 2-for-12 in his career against Peralta and Carlos Gonzalez is scuffling as he attempts to play nearly an entire season for what has to be the first time in a decade. Dahl was dealing with fatigue earlier last month, but has since bounced back with a five-game hitting streak that includes 4 XBHs. You can expect him to flash more upside in a potential slugfest this evening.

J.D. Martinez: (DET) @ ATL DK:$4,900/FD:$3,600

I’m not all phased by Martinez laying a goose egg against Braves RHP Matt Wisler, who is more experienced and far more talented than tonight’s starter. As we mentioned Aaron Blair is struggling with a 9.82 ERA and .321 BAA over his last 10 appearances in the Majors and he’s coughed up 12 homers during that span. Martinez usually has a great floor/ceiling combination, and he might be lightly owned because he burned some owners last night, but there’s no way he should avoid consideration in this prime spot.

Brandon Drury: (ARI) vs. SD DK:$3,300/FD:$3,800

The D’Backs would be our longshot stack of the evening against a LH starter in Clayton Richard, who has been solid in a small sample size this season, but could certainly struggle against an opponent that boasts the best collective wOBA (.349) against LHP in the Majors this year. Richard has posted a .346 BAA and 1.89 WHIP on the road, so his 3.82 ERA in those contests is misleading. Now he’ll face a crew of dangerous RHB, including Drury, who has launched 5 homers over 129 at-bats against the platoon this season. Drury has come alive late with a .341 batting average in September and he’s clearly a cheap addition to this stack on DraftKings.

Potential Values

Carlos Beltran ($3700/$3700) is a solid cash game play to consider against RHP Jake Odorizzi.

Chris Young ($3800/$2500) is a staple of Red Sox lineups against LHP and will be worth a look if he starts against J.A. Happ.

Ian Desmond ($3500/$3700) is a longshot to consider as an addition to a Rangers stack against Odorizzi.


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