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Scouting the MLB DFS, Sunday October 2

We break down this afternoon's slate of MLB action with the top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

Plays of the Day

Value: The Rays are facing a LHP in Martin Perez, who has been solid at the Launching Pad known as Globe Life Ballpark, but it’s only a matter of time before he struggles at a hitter-friendly stadium with a very high Run Factor. Rays 2B Tim Beckham is hitting .389 with a .463 wOBA and 200 wRC+ on the road against the platoon, so give him a look if he’s batting towards the top of the Rays order this afternoon.

Fade: Max Scherzer is always a great option in GPP formats, but I find it hard to pay up for him today with Chris Sale and Justin Verlander seemingly offering more upside. The Nationals have nothing to play for and he’s unlikely to go deep into the ballgame unless he’s in the midst of a no-hitter or Perfect Game by chance.

Weather Report

    Chance of delays in Philly but all afternoon games should get played today.

Stackable Menu

  1. Brewers visiting RHP German Marquez
  2. White Sox hosting RHP Jose Berrios
  3. Rockies hosting RHP Tyler Cravy
  4. Orioles visiting RHP Luis Cessa
  5. Cardinals hosting RHP Ryan Vogelsong

Longshot Stack: Rays visiting LHP Martin Perez


Pitchers

Two Studs

Justin Verlander: (DET) @ ATL DK:$13,700/FD:$10,600

Verlander put up the best numbers of any SP in his last outing with 12 Ks, 1 BB, 0 ER and 4 H allowed to produce an incredible 42.3 DK points against a divisional rival in the Indians. Now he faces a weak offensive team in a National League ballpark and unlike most of the other aces on the docket today, he’ll actually be playing for something with the Tigers still in the hunt for a playoff berth. He’s been carrying his squad like he did during his MVP season several years ago and has been nearly untouchable with just 2 ER allowed to go along with 30 Ks over his last 3 outings. Verlander isn’t even particularly expensive on FanDuel and he should serve as the primary building block for lineups on that DFS site.

Chris Sale: (CWS) vs. MIN DK:$13,100/FD:$10,800

He’s right behind Verlander in terms of motivation, but Sale might be the better GPP play because his ownership won’t be as high after he’s posted mixed results of late. Yet the White Sox draws a gorgeous matchup against a Twins team that ranks dead last in terms of collective batting average (.216) over the last 30 days and should be without its top hitter in Brian Dozier (oblique) today. Sale dominated Minnesota with 9 Ks and 2 ER allowed over 7 strong innings in his sole meeting with the Twins this year and is holding non-Dozier Twins batters to a collective .242 average with a 28.9% K-Rate throughout their careers.

Value Play:

Kyle Hendricks: (CHC) @ CIN DK:$10,300/FD:$10,200

Well this isn’t a value play, but in comparison to the three elite aces at the top of the board today, Hendricks offers the same type of floor at a much lower price tag. His ceiling is lower as well, but with a league-best 2.00 ERA that continues to decline with only 10 ER allowed over his last 10 appearances (68.1 IP), he’s clearly a fantastic cash game play. The Reds are a feisty team that managed to tag Jon Lester on Saturday, but Hendricks has had little trouble navigating that lineup with 2 ER allowed and 7 Ks to go 2-0 over 2 meetings with the divisional rivals this year. Expect more solid returns from the Cubs young RHP with rookie Robert Stephenson pitching for the Reds.

Longshot Pitcher:

Aaron Sanchez: (TOR) @ BOS DK:$7,700/FD:$8,400

The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and they tagged Sanchez for 5 ER over 3.2 IP in his last meeting with this club, so we shouldn’t see a high ownership rate of the Blue Jays RHP. Yet he does have plenty of upside in a game that’s even more important for Toronto than Boston, and could swing either way considering how David Price has been pitching lately. Since scuffling in that outing against the Sox, Sanchez got some extra rest before proceeding to dominate the Mariners and Orioles (two potential playoff teams) with 15 Ks and a total of 2 ER allowed while going 6 innings in each of his last two starts. He’s a young stud, who is tough on both righties and lefties and is capable of turning in a Quality Start against any opponent.

Batters

Catcher:

Yadier Molina: (STL) @ PIT DK: $4,000/FD: $3,200

After one day off, in which he met value again with multiple hits, Molina is our top play in terms of floor/ceiling combination once again. The Cardinals are only one game out of the second Wild Card spot in the N.L. and they’re likely to pound Pirates RHP Ryan Vogelsong, who has been extremely vulnerable with 26 ER allowed and a horrible 21:16 K:BB ratio over his last 6 appearances. Molina is still hitting .432 with a 1.072 OPS over his last 10 appearances and batting .368 since August 1, as he’ll look to continue carrying the Cards offense in a critical came this afternoon.

Potential Value

Martin Maldonado ($3300/$3200) remains a solid value play with the Brewers visiting Coors Field.

Longshot

Tony Wolters ($3100/$3000) did indeed start and produce for the Rockies last night and he might do so once again today with the platoon advantage against RHP Tyler Cravy.

First Base:

Anthony Rizzo: (CHC) @ CIN DK:$5,300/FD:$4,200

The Cubs are another strong stack to consider as they look to build some momentum heading into the playoffs by beating up on their divisional rivals. They’ll have to bounce back from a surprising loss yesterday, but should be able to tag rookie RHP Robert Stephenson, who is sporting a 6.27 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP through 7 MLB starts. Like most young pitchers, he’s struggling against the platoon, as he’s allowing an alarming 3.24 HR/9 ratio and a 26.8% LD Rate when facing LHB this season. Rizzo is a modest 1-for-3 against Stephenson this year, but he obviously has tons of upside in the right matchup and could have a very productive day.

Potential Value

Hard to ignoreJose Abreu ($3900/$3200) at this price tag against extremely vulnerable rookie RHP Jose Berrios.

Longshot

Brandon Moss ($3800/$2900) is starting to break out of his slump for the Cardinals and he could take advantage of Vogelsong’s struggles against the platoon.

Second Base:

Tim Beckham: (TB) @ TEX DK:$4,100/FD:$2,900

I wouldn’t expect huge production from Beckham to make him worthy of GPP consideration, but he does seem like a quality cash game option at this mid-tier price tag. The Rays are facing a LHP in Martin Perez, who has been solid at the Launching Pad known as Globe Life Ballpark, but it’s only a matter of time before he struggles at a hitter-friendly stadium with a very high Run Factor. The Rays are better against LHP and Beckham is hitting .389 with a .463 wOBA and 200 wRC+ on the road against the platoon, so give him a look if he’s batting towards the top of the Rays order this afternoon.

Potential Value

Cesar Hernandez ($3600/$3000) is always a solid cash game option against a relatively weak RHP in Rafael Ynoa.

Longshot

Devon Travis ($3500/$3500) has been a Red Sox-killer this season and he’s worth a look if you think that David Price will struggle in his third consecutive start.

Third Base:

Jonathan Villar: (MIL) @ COL DK:$5,100/FD:$4,500

The Brewers are loving their trip to Coors Field to conclude the season and Villar kept rolling at that hitter-friendly ballpark with a double, run and stolen base last night. He has tremendous upside once again today against a rookie RHP in German Marquez, who performed well in his MLB debut before struggling badly in San Francisco his next time out. With rookie starters, it becomes much easier for an offense to get rolling, and for a speedster such as Villar to nab a SB or two by timing up his potentially lackluster move to first base. So give the Brewers dual threat a long look in any format as a stud that’s worth paying up for this afternoon.

Potential Value

Manny Machado ($2900/$3300) has no business being this under priced on DK ahead of a decent matchup against mediocre RHP Luis Cessa.

Longshot

Jedd Gyorko ($4600/$3000) could serve as a high-upside addition to a Cardinals stack against Vogelsong.

Shortstop:

Tim Anderson: (CWS) vs. MIN DK:$4,300/FD:$2,900

The White Sox young SS is starting to flash plenty of upside, but his price tag isn’t really rising on FanDuel. He remains an excellent cash game play on that DFS site and is a quality GPP option to consider on DK against a weak rookie RHP. Jose Berrios has struggled in just about every start this year on his way to a 8.61 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and .318 BAA. Meanwhile, Anderson is hitting .326 with 5 XBH and 2 HR over his last 10 appearances and he could serve as a valuable addition to a White Sox stack this afternoon.

Potential Value

Pat Valaika ($2900/$3000) might draw another start for the Rockies if DJ LeMahieu continues to sit on his potential N.L. Batting Title.

Longshot

Francisco Lindor ($3700/$3300) is really breaking out of his slump lately and he will be worth a look against inconsistent RHP Ian Kennedy.

Outfielders:

Nelson Cruz: (SEA) vs. OAK DK:$5,300/FD:$4,100

He’s always worth a look against a LH pitcher and today’s matchup is no exception with rookie southpaw Sean Manaea visiting Safeco Field. Cruz will look to add to solo HR he launched off Manaea earlier this year and boost his ridiculous .351 ISO Mark against the platoon this season by tagging the rook. He’s been on fire from a power perspective with 6 homers and a 1.201 OPS over his last 10 appearances and is definitely worth consideration in this matchup.

David Dahl: (COL) vs. MIL DK:$5,000/FD:$3,700

Dahl was caught stealing after logging two more hits last night and he would be considered a higher upside option if he had succeeded of course. He’s still a great cash game option with the Rockies facing Tyler Cravy (was Matt Garza, then Jimmy Nelson) and now a sophomore RHP with very limited MLB experience. Dahl has been raking with a .321/.367/.571 slash line over his last 10 appearances and he’ll have the platoon advantage in this plus matchup to serve as a solid addition to a Rockies stack.

Paulo Orlando: (KC) vs. CLE DK:$3,900/FD:$3,600

One of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last 14 days, Orlando is a quality option to consider as the head of a Royals stack against vulnerable RHP Josh Tomlin. The Indians starter is coughing up the most HR/9 amongst qualified SP and a couple of Quality Starts in his last two outings does little to change my mind about his vulnerability. With a .405 batting average and 2 SB over his last 10 appearances, Orlando is shaping up as a high-floor, high-ceiling option at a pretty reasonable price tag on DK, as he could produce lofty FP totals if the Royals offense comes alive against Tomlin.

Potential Values

Jarrod Dyson ($3800/$3200) is another hot-hitting Royals batter to consider as part of that stack this afternoon.

Hunter Pence ($3500/$2800) remains under priced on both main DFS sites given his consistency for the Giants.

Yasiel Puig ($3500/$2700) should be in the Dodgers lineup this afternoon after he knocked Giants LHP Matt Moore out in the early innings of his last start.


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