Citizen Soldier 400
Yahoo: Top 30 Drivers
Yahoo / Fantasy Live / Fox: Quick Picks
It has a wet weekend at Dover International Speedway, and all the rain isn't going to make setting DFS NASCAR lineups for Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400 any easier.
Qualifying was washed out, setting the field by owner points and ensuring that there wouldn't be any big names starting deeper in the field. As a result, it is going to be tougher to identify the drivers who will be the biggest movers and score the most points in the place differential category.
Rain also washed out part of the second practice session and all of Happy Hour, making it tough to tell which big names have the cars to beat and which mid-pack drivers will be the top sleepers.
The 400-lap race further complicates matters because hitting on the driver who leads the most laps is a must with so many points available in the laps led and fastest laps run categories. With that in mind, you may want to pay up for at least a couple of studs to increase your chances of picking the dominant driver.
Check out one last look at my top picks and potential sleepers for Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400, and make sure to get your DFS NASCAR lineups locked in.
Kevin Harvick ($10,900)
With rain disrupting track activities all weekend, it isn’t a bad idea to stick with the driver that has been unstoppable at Dover the last couple of years. Harvick has led the most laps in three of his five starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, leading 511 more laps than any other driver in that stretch. He led 355 laps in a win here last fall, so there is no denying his enormous ceiling.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500)
He had one of the best cars in the May race at Dover, and despite being involved in a late wreck, he still rallied for a top 10. More importantly, he has been the best driver on the track the last few weeks, either winning or leading the most laps in each of the last four races. With Truex starting on the front row and already locked into the next round of the Chase, he can focus solely on delivering another dominating performance.
Brad Keselowski ($9,100)
While his Dover resume isn’t as impressive as some other top drivers, Keselowski does have five finishes of sixth or better in the last eight races here, including a win and two runner-up efforts. He also starts on the pole, and the track position could allow him to pile up some points in the laps led and fastest laps run categories, at least in the early stages. Keselowski is a lot cheaper than some of the top options this weekend, and he is a sneaky choice to finish as one of the top scorers.
Jeff Gordon ($8,400)
The veteran has been out of the car a few weeks, but that didn't stop him from putting the No. 88 at the top of the charts in Saturday's lone practice session. He has also finished in the top 15 in each of his last nine starts at Dover, compiling an 8.0 average finish and winning in 2014. Gordon has to start 18th, so he has room to pad his score in the place differential category. He isn’t overly cheap, which could drive to his ownership, but Gordon could easily eclipse 40 fantasy points with a solid run.
Greg Biffle ($7,500)
The price tag is too high for a driver who has been beyond terrible in recent weeks, but as a result, his ownership should be practically nonexistent. He showed borderline top 10 speed in the little practice that was held Saturday, and he has plenty of upside in the place differential category since he starts 25th. If you are looking to go way out on a limb to try to win a large GPP, Biffle has just enough appeal to gamble on.
Clint Bowyer ($7,000)
Bowyer tends to be an all-or-nothing play, but he offers intriguing upside at Dover. He has finished in the top 15 in each of his last ten starts here, posting an 8.6 average finish during the stretch. Granted, he has struggled for much of 2016, but he finished 12th with a place differential of +20 in the May race at Dover. He starts 28th, so he could post a big score for a great price if he can extend his streak of top 15s at Dover.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700)
Aric Almirola, Paul Menard, and Ty Dillon are likely to be among the popular low-priced plays, but Stenhouse could be a great contrarian play in both cash games and GPPs. He starts 22nd, but he has cracked the top 20 in six of his eight starts at Dover and has finished eighth and 14th in his last two starts here.
David Ragan ($5,500)
He is a major roll-of-the-dice play, but Ragan has had some success at Dover recently. He has finished 13th, 22nd, and 17th in his last three starts here, and he finished with a place differential of +10 in the May race this year. He starts 32nd, so if he can approach his recent numbers, he could be a cheap source of 30-plus fantasy points. Keep Ragan in mind as a potential low-priced flier in GPPs.
Drivers to Fade
Joey Logano ($9,400)
While Logano is no stranger to piling up solid finishes at Dover, he has yet to show he can dominate a race at the concrete track. He has led just two laps here since joining Team Penske and by starting fifth, he has almost no upside in the place differential category. He doesn't offer the type of ceiling you need for a driver in this price range.
Austin Dillon ($7,900)
He starts 14th after qualifying was rained out, but Dillon's history at Dover suggests he will be sliding back when the green flag waves. He has a 26.7 average finish in six starts at the track, and he has never finished better than 20th. Dillon will need a career day at Dover to post a decent score, and he is much more likely to end up with a negative place differential and provide little value to lineups.
My Favorite DraftKings Cash Game Lineup
Kevin Harvick ($10,900)
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500)
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300)
Aric Almirola (6,300)
Paul Menard ($6,200)
Ty Dillon ($5,900)
By rostering Harvick and Truex, I have both the driver who has been the best at Dover recently and the driver who has been the best in the series the last few weeks. Between the two, I expect to roster the top scorer and maximize my points in the laps led and fastest laps run categories.
Johnson is a high-upside No. 3 driver. At the very least, he should deliver a solid run this weekend. Meanwhile, he owns a ridiculous ten wins at Dover and ranks first in laps led and fastest laps run, so a dominating performance isn't out of the question.
The rest of my lineup is filled with a trio of cheap options starting deeper in the field. Almirola, Menard, and Dillon all start outside the top 25, so they only need to finish in the middle of the pack to produce decent scores. Equally as important, I should be able to absorb a poor finish from any of the three and still have a shot at cashing.
Checkers-or-Wreckers GPP Lineup
Kyle Busch ($10,300)
Brad Keselowski (9,100)
Ryan Blaney ($8,000)
Jamie McMurray ($7,800)
Kasey Kahne ($7,600)
Clint Bowyer ($7,100)
While Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are my two top picks, Kyle Busch and Keselowski aren't bad alternatives. Busch ranks in the top five in both laps led and fastest laps at Dover, and he ranks third in laps led in the last five races at the track. Keselowski also has a solid resume at Dover and starting on the pole, he in prime position to lead his share of laps and potentially dominate.
Blaney, McMurray, and Kahne all have some upside through place differential, but there potential to finish in the top 10 is their true appeal. Blaney and Kahne both finished in the top 10 at Dover in May; Kahne is also the hottest driver in the series among the non-Chasers. If all three can challenge for top 10s, all three can finish in the 40-point range.
Starting 28th, Bowyer is a high-upside play, and while I wouldn't be surprised if he were stuck in the back of the back all afternoon, he could also be one of the biggest movers. He gained 20 points and finished 12th here in May, so he is capable of putting up a big score.