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Andrew Luck (DK – $7,300) – Luck delivered a winning score in Week 1 (385 yards and four TD), but he only has four TDs over the last three games with one other 300-yard passing game. Just like Rodgers, Andrew isn't making big plays downfield (6.9 yards per pass attempt). There has been a ton of talk about the Bears' weakness in the secondary in 2016, but they've only allowed four passing TDs and nine completions over 20 yards. Chicago ranks 10th in the league vs. QBs with three teams scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. The Bears were beaten badly in the time of possession battle over the first three weeks of the year. Luck only has one dynamic weapon in the passing game (Hilton), so his ceiling isn't as explosive as expected headed into 2016. He seems overpriced.
Frank Gore (DK – $5,700) – The Colts continue to give Gore solid chances (19 touches per game). Frank averages 4.0 yards per carry, but he's only gaining 5.1 yards per catch. Last week with the Colts trailing, Josh Ferguson was able to earn most the playing time late. Josh caught seven of his ten targets for 33 yards while being the field for 30 of 78 plays compared to 34 by Gore. The Bears can be ball controlled so Indy should earn the edge in time of possession. RBs have four TDs vs. Chicago while gaining 3.9 yards per rush. Rising salary with no explosiveness and possible fewer chances in the passing game. Not my kind of player in the daily space.
T.Y. Hilton (DK - $7,400) – In one week, Hilton went from 21.8 yards per catch to 6.0. Last week T.Y. struggled to find open space in the secondary, so he made all of his plays close to the line of scrimmage (7/42/1 on ten targets). He has 44 targets (11.0 per game) with a short catch rate (56.8). Hilton is on pace for 100 catches for 1344 yards and four TDs on a career-high 176 targets. Luck doesn't have another receiving option to command a high volume so T.Y. will continue to be active in the passing game. The Bears tend to struggle to get offenses off the field (TOP by their defense >>> Week 1 - 36:19, Week 2 - 36:05, and Week 3 - 35:19) so Luck should have success dinking and dunking up and down the field. Chicago has limited the damage to WRs (51/612/3 on 81 targets). This week Hilton will work the short areas of the field leading to solid catches. With each successful catch, he'll be baiting the Bears' CBs. Luck should hit him on one long TD. T.Y. is in position for his second 100-yard receiving game with 7+ catches and a TD.
Phillip Dorsett (DK - $4,800) – If Dorsett didn't hit on a 64-yard TD in Week 4, he would have delivered a zero last week. Over his last three games, Phillip only has five catches for 121 yards and a TD on 12 targets. He's caught only 50 percent of his targets this year (47.4 percent in his career). The Bears have overachieved at CB with Indy failing just as bad at WR2 and WR3 with Moncrief on the DL. Overall, I can't trust his chances or his ability to score TDs. Fantasy owner need to see a lot more before taking him to the daily dance.
Dwayne Allen (DK - $3,100) – Allen had his widest gap in TE snaps (62 - 40) of the season over Jack Doyle in Week 4. Despite more playing time, Dwayne finished with his third straight short game (2/20 on four targets). Over four games this year, he only had 11 catches for 133 yards and a TD on 19 targets. The Bears have been respectable against the TE (17/163/1 on 24 targets). Luck likes to throw to the TE at the goal like so he may score, but I can't trust his targets or upside in yards.