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Matt Ryan (DK - $7,100) – Ryan is off to his best start of his career and his success over the first three weeks came without impact value from Julio Jones. Last week's game was a perfect storm for Julio and Matty Ice. As a Fantasy owner and handicapper, I have to think like a coach. If I do and hit on the right wave length, I could have a winning edge. Last week I didn't see the light with Ryan while offering a seeing some upside in Jones' player profile for the daily games. Atlanta entered Week 4 with a huge rushing performance by their RBs (217 yards – 319 combined yards and four TDs) with failure from their top WR. The Panthers came into the game with concern for the run while believing in their young CBs after facing a rookie QB in Week 1 plus a weak passing attack in Week 2 (SF), and Week 3 (MIN). In the end, Matt passed for 503 yards and five TDs with Julio exploding for a 12/300/1 game to get his stats back in line. After four games, Ryan lead the NFL in with 1473 passing yards and 11 TDs (tied with Roethlisberger). The Broncos have a great defense with solid CBs. The Falcons will attack them with their RBs and TEs in the passing while looking for favorable matchups for Julio. Denver hasn't allowed a passing TD in two games with WRs catching only 49.3 percent of their 79 chances for 433 yards and a TD. This isn't an explosive matchup, but Matt may get a couple of TDs via his RBs and TEs.
Devonta Freeman (DK – $5,000) – Freeman has a TD in his last two games. In 2016, he's been a lot less active in the passing game (11/82/1 on 12 targets) with Tevin Coleman seeing better than expected passes (13/181 on 15 targets). Devonta averages 16.5 touches per game with one 100-yard rushing game. The Broncos allow 4.2 yards per rush with five rushing TDs with backs catching 18 of 21 targets for 100 yards and a TD. Freeman has a higher than expected projection this week due to the possibly of Coleman having limit snaps due to a medical concern with a rare blood disorder (sickle cell). Denver has solid CBs and a plus pass rush so Freeman may see a bump in catches. Not ideal, but Devonta has the pass catching skills to set a high floor if he earns the full share of playing time.
Tevin Coleman (DK - $4,100) – As great as Coleman has looked on the stats sheet in 2016, he's only averaging 3.2 yards per rush while averaging just over 13 touches per game. Most of his value has come in TDs (4) and in the passing game (13/181) with the latter being somewhat of a surprise. Other than a couple of big plays, Tevin looks like the weaker RB on the Falcons. In addition, Coleman has a genetic blood disorder that is affected by higher altitudes so his playing may be limited in this game. Fading, but he still does enough to offer upside if this was a better matchup.
Julio Jones (DK: $9,600) - Jones scored 54.0 percent of his Fantasy points for the season last week when he exploded for 12 catches for 300 yards and a TD on 15 targets. He's now the 3rd ranked WR averaging 22.2 Fantasy points per game in PPR league. His success is a perfect reason why you ride your best players in Fantasy football regardless of matchup. His TD production (3) is on a high path especially when you add in the improved play by the Falcons' offense (18 TDs in 2016). Overall, Julio is only averaging 8.75 targets per game, which is well below his 2015 season (12.7). The Broncos are first in the league vs. WR in 2016 (39/433/1 on 79 targets). WRs have only caught 49.4 percent of their chances while gaining 11.1 yards per catch. CB Bradley Roby has underperformed so far in 2015 and CB Aqib Talib can be beat at times. It really comes down to Ryan's passing window. If Atlanta can handle the pass rush, Jones will get his targets. Either way, this matchup would still fall into the steady column. Julio should be a low percentage play if you want to go against the grain.
Mohamed Sanu (DK - $4,800) – Since his solid game in Week 1 (5/80/1 on eight targets), Sanu only has eight catches for 72 yards on 12 targets. Mohamed has struggled with a shoulder issue over the last couple of weeks leading to a questionable tag. He runs most of his routes out the slot, which is a date with CB Chris Harris. Bad matchup with concerns with his health.
Jacob Tamme (DK - $3,000) – There was no reason to throw to Tamme in Week 4 with Julio Jones making big plays all over the field. He finished with only two catches for three yards and a TD on two targets. His ticket came in Week 2 (5/75/1 on eight targets). His value in the Falcons' offense is dictated by matchup. The Broncos have solid CBs so Ryan will look for the RB and TE this week to move the ball. This season TEs have 20 catches for 233 yards on 31 targets against Denver with no TDs allowed. His floor could be a 5/50 game, but his value for the daily game requires a TD. Just like many of the backend TE options this week, Jacob is only a coin flip play against a top defense.