The thought process for the FanDuel Perfect Lineup in Week 7 is the same as the DraftKings Perfect Lineup except for different price points of the key plays.
Note: There will be repetitive content due to the same choices in decision making.
This week’s plan starts at the RB position. I learned my lesson last week with the Charles/Ware scenario, so I’m pushing all on Spencer Ware. I made the decision earlier this week when I did my player write ups for the RBs. This week’s matchup is just too attractive. The situation has since improved with Charles developing some swelling in his knee. Jamaal may play this week, but Ware will be the man again in Kansas City. Here’s the player profile for Spencer Ware ($7,000) in the RB Report at Scout this week:
Last week the Chiefs had 244 combined yards with two TDs and six catches from the RB position with Ware being the big winner (163 combined yards with a TD and two catches) while being on the field for 40 of 64 RB plays). As a Charles owner in the daily games, it was frustrating to watch. The off track (rain) may have been the reason for his better than expect opportunity for Ware. This week Fantasy owner will be back in RB hell with Kansas City as the Saints struggle to defend RBs (802 yards with 11 TDs and 29 catches - 35.04 Fantasy points per game). This week I gave Spencer just over 50 percent of the Chiefs' RB carries, but the Chiefs’ rushes came up shorter than expected in their projections (26.58). This number should be closer to 34 if Kansas City controls the clock on the ground. The Chiefs will score multiple TDs on the ground, so Ware or Charles have a chance to offer 25+ Fantasy points. Very winnable matchup, but a Fantasy owner could get beat by the head coach again this week. Update: Ware becomes almost an all-in with Charles struggling with his recovery from his 2015 knee injury. Jamaal may play, but he won’t be the workhorse back.
This is an explosive matchup for sure, and I have a tough time believing the Saints will have success stopping the run. New Orleans allowed two rushing TDs or more in four of their five games plus one TD to the RB position. I will play Ware on every team this week.
Lucky for me and the rest of the Fantasy world, Mike Gillislee ($5,300) becomes an excellent backend gamble at RB with LeSean McCoy expected to miss this game. Now, my whole plan could blow if McCoy somehow finds a way to play. I didn’t do a profile for Gillislee as the McCoy news came out after I finished the RBs. Here’s a look at what I thought of this week’s matchup for the Bills and McCoy:
After six games, McCoy is the second highest scoring RBs (21.90 Fantasy points per game) in PPR leagues. Over his last two games, LeSean has 300 combined yards with three TDs and four catches. He has over 100 combined yards in the last four wins by the Bills. On the year, McCoy averaged 20.8 targets per game. In 2015 in his game against the Dolphins on the road, McCoy had only 26 combined yards with a TD and a catch while playing better at home (16/112/1). Miami has shown risk in five games defending RBs with rushers gaining 4.5 yards per rush, five TDs, and 29 catches. In each of their last three games against the run, the Dolphins allowed over 5.3 yards per carry. LeSean did come off the field last week with what looked like a bad knee injury. He came back in the game to give Fantasy owners a sigh of relief. Playing well on a team that's winning games in a favorable matchup. Fantasy owners will be drawn to him due to his success in his last two games. Viable, but I sense a fade.
Now, I didn’t think McCoy was a great play this week due to this game being on the road and his salary commanded another 30+ Fantasy point day. If his salary were in the $5,000 range, he would be a solid play as 20+ Fantasy points is well within reach in this format.
Based on the data for this matchup, Buffalo will run the ball over 30 times with Tyrod Taylor seeing about 20 percent of the action. Gillislee will have an excellent chance at 20+ touches with some value in the passing game. As great as it looks, he still needs a TD to be an edge. Just for comparison, last year vs. the Dolphins, the Bills rushed for 151 yards with a TD in Miami with their backs catching only one pass for 10 yards and a TD. In their home game, Buffalo stomped on the Dolphins on the ground (266 yards and three TDs – 44 by the QB) plus two catches for seven yards. This season Mike has 17 rushes for 117 yards and two TDs with success as well in the passing game (3/27/1). I’ll take my 12 to 15 points and hope for more upside.
The WR position looks interesting to me at the top end, but rostering all three will be a tougher to win on the same team at FanDuel. I’ll rotate in a couple of these options on most of my teams this week. My top three WR are pretty straightforward, and they will be easy to identify this week. I’m riding Julio Jones ($9,200), A.J. Green ($8,500), and Allen Robinson ($8,400) in this week’s perfect lineup at DraftKings, but they won’t fit at FanDuel. Here’s a look at the outlook for Green and Robinson this week in the WR Report:
If Green follows his early season form, he's due for a big game. He had his best success in Week 1 (12/180/1) and Week 4 (10/173/1). In between, A.J. has four games. Overall, Green has a solid catch rate (67.7) while averaging 10.3 targets per game. In 2015 in two games vs. the Browns, he had nine catches for 181 yards and a TD on 12 targets highlight by his game in Cleveland (5/128/1). The Browns top CB Joe Haden continues to be limited with a hamstring issue. He missed Week 3 and Week 6. Four WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. Cleveland (Jordan Matthews - 7/114/1, Jarvis Landry - 7/120/1, Chris Hogan - 4/114. and Kendall Wright - 8/133/1). There's a lot to like about A.J. this week. The Bengals need to win, Green is due for a big game, and the Browns allowed 29 points per game. Possible center square.
Robinson struggled to get open last week vs. the Bears leading to him catching three of his six targets for 49 yards. Over his last four games, Allen has fewer than 60 yards receiving. His catch rate (51.1) is lower than 2015 (52.9) while losing length on his catches as well (2015 - 17.5 and 2016 - 12.0). WRs have 84 catches for 1216 yards and seven TDs against the Raiders. Over the last four games, WRs have two TDs vs. Oakland. Six WRs have over 100 yards against the Raiders in 2016 (Willie Snead - 9/172/1, Brandin Cooks - 6/143/2, Steve Smith - 8/111/1, Tyrell Williams - 5/117/1, and Travis Benjamin - 7/117). CB Sean Smith played well in his last couple of games after showing risk early in the year. He tends to lineup on the right side of the field while the Jaguars will move Robinson around in formations. Possible best game of the season with a chance at impact upside, but he needs Bortles to play better.
I am going to use Green and Robinson. This forces me to find a drop down at the WR3.
Before I find my last option at WR, I’m going to lock in my QB. It’s about salary for me as I want to leave room to roster a top WR. Based on salary and matchup. I’m going with Blake Bortles ($7,400). Here’s a look at his player profiles this week that I wrote in the QB Report:
After five games, Bortles is the 13th ranked QB, which is below his expected value coming into 2016. Blake passed for over 300 yards in his first two games while coming up short in passing yards in his last three games (194, 207, and 271). He has yet to throw over two TDs in a game. The Raiders allowed three teams to pass over 350 yards with each team recording three TDs or more. They allow 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Oakland allowed three TDs or more in five of six games in 2016. WRs have a 65.1 percent catch rate while averaging 14.4 yards per catch. Excellent matchup with a favorable salary. Blake should pass for 300+ yards and three TDs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a rushing TD as well.
I like Andy Dalton ($8,100) as well, but the extra $700 in salary will limit my outs at the other position.
Dalton played four of his first six games on the road while drawing a tough opponent at home (DEN). Andy only has six passing TDs while his offensive line allowed 19 sacks and 30 QB hits. Also, the Bengals have struggled to run the ball (3.5 yards per rush). Last season Dalton threw for 454 yards with six combined TDs in two games against the Browns. Cleveland allowed three passing TDs to each of their last four opponents (16 on the year) with three teams passing for over 300 yards. They've allowed 29 points per game. Solid matchup with impact upside, but Cinci needs to improve as a pass blocking team.
My decision at defense and kicker comes down to two choices in Week 7 – Kansas City ($4,500)/Cairo Santos ($4,800) and Cincinnati ($5,100)/Mike Nugent ($4,600). Of the two, I like the Bengals combo better, and it only costs me an extra $400 in salary.
After my QB, two RBs, two WRs, K, and Defense, I have $13,700 in remaining salary. Here’s are my best combination of players at WR and TE to finish my roster:
Julio Jones ($9,200)/Vernon Davis ($4,500)
Antonio Brown ($9,000)/Jack Doyle ($4,700)
Mike Evans ($8,000)/Kyle Rudolph ($5,400), Dennis Pitta ($5,300), or Julius Thomas ($5,500)
Brandon Marshall ($7,400)/Travis Kelce ($6,300)
Kendall Wright ($5,200), Adam Humphries ($4,900), or Justin Hunter ($4,900)/Rob Gronkowski ($8,500)
The last grouping looks like the weak link due to the weakness in choices at the WR positions. I’m intrigued by Mike Evans and his opportunity, but I’m throwing a dart in a single entry trying to find the right out at TE.
Evans has a TD in four games in 2016 with an elite opportunity over the last four games (55 targets - 13.75 per game). His catch rate (51.6) continues to limit his explosiveness. Mike is on pace for a massive season (102/1437/13). He's faced two tough pass defenses (ARI and DEN) so his production should rise with softer matchups. Tampa lost WR2 Vincent Jackson this week, which allow defenses to commit more personnel to defend him. The 49ers have struggled to defend the run, so they haven't been killed by WRs in catches (62) or yards (81)), but WRs do have 10 TDs in the last five games. San Fran struggled with two big WRs (Kelvin Benjamin - 7/108/2 and Larry Fitzgerald - 6/81/2) with failure as well vs. Doug Baldwin (8/164/1). Tempting due to his elite opportunity and edge in scoring.
This leaves me with three outs to finish my roster. Antonio Brown is going to be a low percentage play due to the dropdown at QB making him an against the grain play. Even if he pays well, I wouldn’t think he would go off. I will use him just in case in the GPPs this week.
Brown owners in the season long games have a lot of concern with his value going forward. Last season when Roethlisberger went down in Week 3, Brown caught 17 passes for 235 on 31 targets in his next four games. In four of his last five games in 2016, Antonio has fewer than 80 yards receiving with three TDs. He's averaging 10.7 targets per game. Last season Brown had nine catches for 133 yards and a TD against the Patriots. Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Patriots (Landry - 10/135 and Parker - 8/106). Landry Jones has a short resume, and New England will do their best to take Brown away for the Steelers. The Patriots don't have a CB that can cover him, so his success falls on the improvement of play of Jones. The downgraded at QB will lead to Antonio being a lower percentage own, which tends to be a good combination over the last couple of years.
Doyle will get the start at TE for the Colts this week with Dwayne Allen out. Last week he produced a solid game for his salary (4/53/1) while receiving four targets. In two other games this season as a backup player, Jack had double-digit Fantasy points (3/35/2 and 6/65). This season the Colts TEs have 40 catches for 438 yards and five TDs on 53 targets, which works out to about seven catches for 73 yards and 0.8 TDs per game. TEs have 24 catches for 320 yards and a TD on 39 targets vs. the Titans in 2016. Doyle makes sense as a backend option, but Tennessee does have 12 sacks in the last two games at home, which may require him to block on many plays. Also, Erik Swoope will be on the field for enough snaps to limit his upside.
Many Fantasy owners like Doyle this week. I’m going to fade him. If the Colts’ game was at home and Luck had a viable WR2, I’d be more willing to roster him support by my above comments. Now, I’m down to two options.
I don’t love Brandon Marshall this week, but I do think he has a fair price point for his salary plus he’s paired with a top TE.
Marshall made a couple of plays last week (3/70), but he finished with a season-low six targets. His catch rate (45.0 percent) is by far the lowest of his career. Brandon has five drops, which is probably a couple higher than expected for a player with his volume of targets (10 per game). In his previous three games, Marshall had 37 targets (12.3 per game). A big part of his failure is poor play by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Geno Smith will start this week so Brandon may regain his bounce in his step. The Ravens will give up TDs to WRs (12 in their last five games). The Giants’ WRs beat Baltimore for 16 catches for 302 yards and three TDs last week, but half of the damage came on two plays by Odell Beckham. Four WRs have two or more TDs vs. the Ravens in 2016. Marshall will get plenty of chances if you believe Geno can deliver TDs. It may take a game or two to find his rhythm with his new QB.
The Chiefs didn't need to pass to beat the Raiders in Week 6, so Travis only had three targets, which led to three catches for 32 yards. After five games, Kelce has 25 catches for 252 yards and TD on 32 targets. He's on pace for 80 catches for 806 yards and six TDs on 102 targets. These stats fall in line with his 2015 success (72/875/5). New Orleans had a tough time vs. the TE in Week 6 (CAR - 9/117/1). Over the first four games of the season, TEs had 16 catches for 148 yards and a TD against New Orleans. This season Travis has one game of value (6/89/1). Mid-level TE who rarely gets impact chances playing against a defense that will allow multiple TDs.
Maybe Marshall will be motivated due to the change at QB. Either way, he should get solid targets, and the Ravens have allowed two or more TDs to four different WRs in 2016. On the Travis Kelce side, I’m wondering if I should own two Chiefs’ players.
Julio came up big on the road in Week 6 against a tough Seahawks' pass defense (7/139/1). His success pushed him to second in WR scoring in PPR leagues (20.10 FPPG). Overall, Julio has 31 catches for 656 yards and four TDs on 50 targets, which puts him on pace for 83 catches for 1749 yards and 11 TDs with only 8.3 targets per game. His opportunity is really about 35 percent lower than 2015 as far as targets (12.7 per game). San Diego can be beaten at RB and TE, so no team has drilled them at the WR position. WRs have 81 catches for 1008 yards and seven TDs vs. the Chargers with two WRs delivering impact games (T.Y. Hilton - 8/174/1 and Amari Cooper - 6/138/1). With no Verrett in the starting lineup, Jones will be open on many plays. He just needs Ryan to throw him the ball. This game should be high scoring, and Julio will be very productive.
Davis had two catches for 50 yards and a TD on four targets in his first game as the starting TE for the Redskins. With Jordan Reed out again this week, Vernon should have an excellent opportunity. Last week Davis was on the field for 72 of 74 plays run by Washington's offense. The Lions have allowed a TD to the TE position in five of six games (seven combined). They showed the biggest risk vs. the Colts (7/88/3) and the Titans (8/91/1) in Week 1 and 2. They've done a better job limiting the damage in catches (18) and yards (154) over the last four games. He makes sense at this level as Cousins tends to look for the TE at the goal line.
It's tough for me to avoid playing Julio if I can fit him in. He posted such an elite game in his last home start (12//300/1) plus he was impressive on the road in a tough matchup last week. Davis looks to have scoring ability, and he’s on the field last week to deliver mid-level chances at TE to pay off for his price point. He’ll have almost the same number of targets at Kelce plus Cousins likes to throw to the TE.
Here’s this week’s Perfect Lineup at FanDuel: