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The Sprint Cup Series visits Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, and if you are looking for a perfect strategy to build a winning DFS NASCAR lineup, keep looking.
Restrictor-plate races like Sunday's Hellman's 500 are by far the toughest to predict, and with multi-car wrecks an unfortunate byproduct of plate racing, the race is more about survival for drivers than it is about speed. In fact, any driver who is still running at the finish has a decent shot at a top 10.
Despite the unpredictability, it doesn't mean you should just flip a coin to set your lineups. There are ways to increase your chances of cashing in, especially in cash games. Place differential is the key this weekend, and drivers who start deep in the field this weekend are your best friends.
Drivers who start in the back have the highest ceiling through place differential, and they also have the least to lose if they do get caught up in the carnage. The highest DFS scorers at Talladega are typically the drivers starting outside the top 25, and at the very least, all the drivers in your lineups need to be starting in the back half of the field.
Don't even take the fastest laps run category into consideration this weekend, and even if the laps led category is tough to predict. Don't worry about leaving a bunch of cap room on the table either. There is a good chance that the best lineup combination won't even come close to using up the allotted salary cap, and that's okay.
It's all about maximizing your upside in the place differential category and minimizing your risk, and to help you finalize your DFS NASCAR lineups, check out one last look at my top picks and lineup combinations. Don't forget to check out the action from Talladega Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,900)
He tends to run hot and cold at the plate tracks, but Johnson offers some potential in multiple categories. He ranks second in laps led over the last ten plate races. By starting 17th, he also has some upside in the place differential category. If you like building around a big name, Johnson is a nice contrarian play to Kevin Harvick in cash games.
Kyle Larson ($8,600)
His 24.2 average finish at Talladega doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Larson is having his best season at the plate tracks. He has two top 10s in three races, and after qualifying back in 24th, he has more than enough upside in the place differential category to take a chance.