Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Projecting Week 8 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Ownership percentages are something we must take into consideration when creating our tournament lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analysts or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint a picture of where the crowd is headed. 

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 642 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jameis Winston

32%

Matt Ryan

23%

Derek Carr

19%

Marcus Mariota

15%

Aaron Rodgers

13%

Andrew Luck

13%

Between six teams being on a bye week, a Thursday night game that is behind us, and a game in London that is not on the main slates this weekend, I expect ownership to be funneled towards a handful of quarterbacks, most of which are on this list. As expected Jameis Winston was the most popular quarterback in the Aces tournament that began on Thursday and the same should be expected on Sunday’s main slate. The matchup against the Raiders is one that he should excel in and Vegas is projecting this to be a close game with a lot of scoring. Matt Ryan was the second-most popular quarterback of this tournament, and that is what I anticipate will be the case this weekend as this is the game with the highest total of the slate and he has been playing lights out. Not to mention, the Packers have been somewhat susceptible to the pass this season. Once we move away from those two, who I ultimately think will generate the most ownership, we will see quarterbacks such as Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, and Andrew Luck receive plenty of interest and much like the chart above showcases, they will be relatively close in ownership. All of them should be between 15-20 percent owned, and I would not be shocked if one of them were to be 20+ percent owned. The one who may be a tad more popular on this list is Carr, specifically on DraftKings, where he is criminally underpriced.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Brock Osweiler

11%

Russell Wilson

9%

Tom Brady

7%

Drew Brees

3%

Brock Osweiler is one I am having a tough time gauging as far as ownership is concerned. Personally, I have an interest in him due to the spot he is in, but then again he has played poorly this season so people could steer away. In my projections, I had him between 8-14 percent, so the 11 percent from Thursday night’s slate sounds about right. The Lions are giving up 284.3 passing yards per game and have surrendered 18 passing touchdowns, yielding multiple passing touchdowns in all but one game this season, making this a favorable situation for Osweiler. Another quarterback I had trouble gauging was Russell Wilson this week, but this chart above provides some clarification. Truth be told, I do not think he will be sub 10 percent owned as I have him in the 11-13 percent range. Nonetheless, he will be under-owned considering the circumstance, which makes him an appealing tournament options. The next two quarterbacks on the chart above, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, did not receive a ton of love in the Thursday night tournament. This will potentially be the case again over the weekend, making them strong tournament plays. Brees has a tough matchup against the Seahawks but plays at home where he crushes. Three percent seems like a stretch so I would predict closer to 5 percent, but still a very low number for a quarterback with 300+ passing yards and multiple touchdowns upside. Brady has played light out all season and due to his price and the fact he is on the road, could push people off of him. However, you know what you are going to get from him whenever he steps on the field and the upside he offers. If you can get him at this low of ownership, he should be someone to consider in your tournament lineups strongly.

Running Backs

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Devontae Booker

72%

Spencer Ware

42%

Christine Michael

40%

Jacquizz Rodgers

35%

Devonta Freeman

31%

As expected, Devontae Booker was the most popular running back on Thursday night’s slate, and that trend will carry over into the weekend as well. He is near minimum price across the industry, is getting the start, and has a favorable matchup. All the boxes check off for Booker this week, and the consensus is very aware of it. Spencer Ware is going to be popular once again this week and to no surprise. He faces off against the Colts who are giving up 109 rushing yards per game and have surrendered six rushing touchdowns. Ware is going to get a lot of touches as Jamaal Charles is nursing a knee injury and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. I expected Christine Michael to be popular this weekend as well, but not this popular and I do think that this 40 percent ownership is a tad inflated. In fact, I have him far less in my projections, 15-20 percent. His price on some sites is a bit high, and with all of the options at hand, I think fewer people will flock towards him over the weekend. That being said, he will possibly be one of the most popular backs, just not with such high ownership as stated above. Jacquizz Rodgers once again will generate some interest as he has played well, remains reasonably priced, and has a good matchup. He should be one of this weekend’s top running backs as far as ownership is concerned, however, in the 20’s range seems a bit more plausible. Devonta Freeman is expected to receive the bulk of the workload with Tevin Coleman nursing a hamstring injury, so many people will be intrigued by this. Then add a game with a high total, a running back that can catch passes out of the backfield and is underpriced, and we have ourselves a chalky play. Booker is the one running back on the list above that has a genuine shot to be that highly owned, aside from him, I would expect the percentages to be less and more spread out among the other running backs.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

David Johnson

13%

Ezekiel Elliott

13%

Mike Gillislee

7%

Matt Forte

4%

It is always baffling to see David Johnson this low owned and with all the cheaper options in good spots, he could once again go overlooked. By now, Johnson has proven that he is matchup proof, so despite the unappealing matchup and the high price tag, he should be a back the gets more interest. He makes a great tournament play due to his upside and potential low ownership. I have him projected in the 8-12 range. Ezekiel Elliott is another back that tends to go under-owned on most weeks, and that appears to be what we will see yet again this week. The matchup against the Eagles is not one that is favorable, but Elliott has run wild against most of his opponents and the offensive line for the Cowboys is elite, which helps in these subpar matchups. This is another example of an elite back going somewhat disregarded. Mike Gillislee will be more popular if LeSean McCoy does not play. Gillislee is near minimum price across the industry and will be the featured back for the Bills if McCoy cannot suit up. We could see his ownership climb, which could potentially affect Christine Michael, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Devonta Freeman’s ownership. Matt Forte at four percent owned is somewhat surprising to me. He is coming off of a week where he carried the ball 30 times for 100 yards and also caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. He faces off against the Browns who are abysmal, putting Forte in a phenomenal spot. I expect him closer to the 10 percent range this weekend.

Wide Receivers

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Mike Evans

49%

Ty Montgomery

39%

T.Y. Hilton

23%

Julio Jones

21%

Amari Cooper

19%

There are no shockers in the chart above. With all the value there is at the running back position, people are electing to pay up for a wide receiver. The one affordable receiver shown above is Ty Montgomery. He will likely be the most popular of the affordable receivers this week, and I have him projected in the 20-25 percent range. Mike Evans is the chalk this week and will generate the most ownership of all receivers. The matchup is elite, and he has been lights out all season, so it just makes sense. The remainder of the ownership will fluctuate between Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, and Amari Cooper. I think Hilton will be the most popular amongst that group, but all will be highly owned.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Brandon Marshall

12%

Doug Baldwin

8%

Michael Crabtree

6%

Will Fuller

6%

Michael Thomas

3%

If you are trying to be a little contrarian on Sunday, Brandon Marshall is one of the top receivers this week that should generate less interest due to the other options in his price range. He will likely be anywhere between 10-15 percent and has a great matchup against the Browns. He is one of my favorite targets in tournaments for that reason. Doug Baldwin, I expected to go under-owned, and this chart proves just that. He is in a favorable matchup on the road against the Saints, and the Seahawks offense could be chasing points here, which could lead to more opportunities for Baldwin. He should be sub 10 percent owned this weekend in a spot he would normally be much higher owned. Both Michael Crabtree and Will Fuller should be closer to the 9-12 percent range this week. Crabtree has a shot to be even higher owned due to his matchup and recent success, so if he is in the 15-18 range, I will not be at all shocked. If you look at Fuller’s home/road splits, you will notice how much better he is at home, and that is where this game will take place. Not to mention, the matchup is also favorable, so I think he will receive more interest than the chart above suggests. Michael Thomas may be the second most popular of the affordable receivers behind Montgomery, so this three percent seems low. I would say he is closer to the 8-10 percent range this weekend.

Tight Ends

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

C.J. Fiedorowicz

20%

Jack Doyle

14%

Jimmy Graham

13%

Gary Barnidge

12%

C.J. Fiedorowicz is near minimum price on most sites and faces off against the Lions who are arguably the worst defense against tight ends. He has also been very involved in this offense in recent weeks, so being the highest owned tight end this week makes complete sense. He will be the most popular play at tight end this week, rightfully so. Rostering him provides you with salary relief and a safe floor from a volatile position. I am not sure why Jack Doyle was the second highest owned tight end in the Aces tournament, and I do not anticipate that he will be this popular this weekend. I have him in the 4-6 percent range in my projections. I do, however, think that Jimmy Graham will be the second highest owned tight end of the slate. He is in a great matchup, and for those who like to take a stroll down Narrative Street, he faces off against his former team. Gary Barnidge is also in a good spot against a Jets funnel defense that force opponents to pass. He is affordable on most sites and could make a solid pivot from Fiedorowicz in tournaments.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Greg Olsen

9%

Rob Gronkowski

7%

Cameron Brate

4%

Travis Kelce

4%

Above are some tight ends that normally would not be this low owned, but due to some of the value that has opened up and some of the plus matchups for other tight ends, these guys are going overlooked. We already know what Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski bring to the table, so in tournaments, they may be worth a shot at sub 10 percent ownership.


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