Jim Dedmon/USA Today Sports

Week 9: DFS Pivots Plays Vs. The Chalk

Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal discusses Week 9 pivots to cash BIG when playing NFL DFS on DraftKings!

LEARN MORE ABOUT MEMBER BENEFITS!


Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday slate.

Quarterback

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/28541-aaron-rodgers?s=532

Aaron Rodgers $7,800 vs. Indianapolis Colts

I am expecting Rodgers to be very popular this week. After all, this game between the Packers and Colts should be high scoring as Vegas has it as the highest projected total of the slate. The Packers do not have much of a run game, so they will rely on Rodgers’ arm to do the work. He has been heating up in recent weeks, averaging 286 passing yards and throwing seven touchdowns in the last two games. This is a good matchup for Rodgers as the Colts are giving up 298.4 passing yards per game and have surrendered 14 touchdowns. They have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each of their last five games. All the boxes check off for Rodgers, and I will have my exposure to him, but I also think he will be one of the highest owned quarterbacks of the week.

Colts vs. QB Stats

Passing Yards

Touchdowns

Passing Yards Per Game

2,387

14

298.4

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/70731-cam-newton?s=532

Cam Newton $7,000 at Los Angeles Rams

It has been an up and down season from Newton this year, but he remains a quarterback that offers immense upside and has a very high ceiling due to his usage. He is a dual-threat quarterback that can run the ball efficiently and can gain yards on the ground in chunks, which increases his potential to score rushing touchdowns which are worth six points. In fact, he accounts for 25.7 percent of the Panthers red zone rushes. Cam does it all for Carolina’s offense. He has topped 22 Fantasy points in three of his six games (scored 30+ in two of those) but has also scored fewer than 17 Fantasy points in three games. The matchup against the Rams is middling as they are yielding 249.1 passing yards per game and have allowed 11 touchdowns. However, it is a matchup that Newton can exploit. He will likely be one of the lower owned quarterbacks of the week and is always a threat to be a top five scorer.

Rams vs. QB stats

Total Passing Yards

Touchdowns

Passing Yards Per Game

1744

11

249.1

Running Backs

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/132720-charcandrick-west?s=532

Charcandrick West $4,400 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Spencer Ware has not officially been ruled out, but it is certainly trending in that direction. If that is the case, then Charcandrick West will get the start at a very affordable price. The Chiefs are 7.5 point favorites and are playing at home, which are two things I look for in a running back. Considering potential game script, West could touch the ball often on Sunday. The Jags have been susceptible to the run this season, yielding 99.9 rushing yards per game and have surrendered seven rushing touchdowns, giving up at least on in each of the last four games. They have allowed +1.9 points above expectations to opposing running backs, per Fantasy Labs. If Ware sits, many people will likely flock to West and rightfully so.

Jaguars vs. RB stats

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

699

7

39

188

0

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/98462-mark-ingram?s=532

Mark Ingram $4,800 at San Francisco 49ers

I am fully aware that Ingram got benched last week and scored negative Fantasy points, but I still believe that despite Tim Hightower potentially getting some run in this contest, Ingram will receive the majority of the work for the Saints this week, unless we hear something completely different before kickoff. The matchup against the 49ers is elite; they are giving up 162.4 rushing yards per game and have surrendered ten rushing touchdowns. They have allowed +3.9 points above expectations to opposing backs. This is the first time all season that Ingram has fallen below $5,000. While there is a ton of risk in rostering him this week, there is also a good amount of upside. He is strictly a tournament play.

49ers vs. RB stats

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

1,137

10

22

185

0

Wide Receivers

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/134530-donte-moncrief?s=532

Donte Moncrief $5,800 at Green Bay Packers

Between the matchup and the fact that he is underpriced, I anticipate that Moncrief will be one of the most popular receivers this week. After missing several weeks with a shoulder injury, Moncrief returned to action last week and appeared not to have skipped a beat. He caught four of his nine targets for 41 yards and scored a touchdown. Going back to last season, Moncrief has scored a touchdown in seven of the last ten games that both he and Luck have both played in. There is clearly a level of trust and a good rapport between the two. The matchup is also one that favors Moncrief as the Packers are giving up 173.7 receiving yards per game for the season and have allowed ten receiving touchdowns to receivers. I mentioned above about this potentially being a shootout, so Moncrief could be a busy receiver this weekend in a game where his team is expected to be chasing points.

Packers vs. WR stats

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

86

1,216

10

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/132120-stefon-diggs?s=532

Stefon Diggs $5,900 vs. Detroit Lions

With all the attention being on the receivers from the Packers and Colts game in this same price range, I could see where Diggs goes overlooked, and that can be a mistake. The Lions are giving up 168.1 receiving yards per game and have surrendered nine touchdowns. Diggs is averaging 8.7 targets per game and accounts for 22.2 percent of the Vikings target share. He is coming off of one his better games this season and appears to be fully recovered from the groin injury. In his only career game against the Lions, he caught six of his nine targets for 108 yards and a touchdown. This is a great situation for Diggs and chances are he will be under-owned in this spot. The Vikings have an implied team total of 23.25, so they are expected to score three touchdowns.

Lions vs. Receiver Stats

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Touchdowns

105

1,345

9

Tight Ends

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/93117-kyle-rudolph?s=532

Kyle Rudolph $4,000 vs. Detroit Lions

I am expecting for Rudolph to be the highest owned tight end of the week. He has been one of the steadier tight ends this season and has a great matchup. He is averaging 7.7 targets per game and accounts for 23.1 percent of the Vikings targets, as well as, 38.9 percent of the red zone targets. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. Detroit has allowed +4.8 points above expectations to tight ends this season. They are giving up 64.6 receiving yards per game while yielding eight touchdowns (most of any team to TEs). By now you should know that the tight end playing against the Lions is usually the chalk and that is because they are atrocious against tight ends. He is in a phenomenal spot this week, and I will have my shares.

Lions vs. TE stats

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

50

517

8

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/33854-antonio-gates?s=532

Antonio Gates $3,000 vs. Tennessee Titans

If you want to pivot from Rudolph, although I probably would not recommend it, you may want to consider Gates who has received 19 targets in the last two games and has caught nine passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. His catch percentage is low, but the number of looks he has been getting cannot be ignored. The Chargers have been lining up in two tight end sets, so Gates should continue to see plenty of snaps. He also accounts for 17.2 percent of the red zone targets, so could have some scoring opportunities. Tennessee has allowed +2.9 points above expectations to opposing tight ends, per Fantasy Labs. They are giving up 67.6 receiving yards per game and have surrendered three touchdowns. He comes at $1,000 cheaper than Rudolph and will likely be at a fraction of the ownership. Keep in mind; Gates is a volatile play.

Titans vs. TE stats

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

47

541

3

null

Panther Insider Top Stories