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Projecting Week 9 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 500 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Matt Ryan (Thu)

27%

Aaron Rodgers

25%

Jameis Winston (Thu)

24%

Dak Prescott

20%

Andrew Luck

17%

Colin Kaepernick

15%

Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston played on Thursday night, so they will not be part of this weekend’s player pool, which only means that the other four quarterbacks on this list could see an uptick in ownership percentage.

I have Aaron Rodgers projected to be the highest owned quarterback this weekend. He has a very good matchup and is heating up, so people will naturally flock to that. This game also has the highest projected total, and the Packers have the highest implied team total. All the boxes check off for him.

The next three who are going to be popular are Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, and Colin Kaepernick. The ownership between the three should be relatively close like we see in the chart above, but it will be site dependent. On a site like DraftKings where Kaepernick is only $5,600, he could easily generate more interest. That being said, all of these quarterbacks will likely have a strong ownership. I have them all three projected over 15 percent and would not be surprised to see one or maybe even two in the 20 percent range.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Drew Brees

11%

Ryan Tannehill

8%

Cam Newton

4%

Sam Bradford

3%

I am having difficulties gauging Drew Brees this week because I have read and heard many people that are interested in him, but I am also aware of the bias when he plays on the road. However, due to the lack of elite options, only Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are in great spots, I do think that Brees will receive a higher ownership than he normally would in a road game. The 49ers are a bad defensive unit, which cancels out Brees’ road struggles. This game also has a high projected total, so Vegas thinks that the Saints will score some points.

I have heard some about Ryan Tannehill this week, but do not expect him to be extremely popular. He could be someone to consider in tournaments as should be sub 10 percent owned and in a good spot. The Jets are a funnel defense and are elite against the run, which could force the Dolphins to throw the ball more. Tannehill has done relatively well in his last two games against the Jets.

Cam Newton at just four percent is somewhat surprising, but once again we go back to two elite quarterbacks in great spots. That being said, you know how I feel about a quarterback with this much upside, and at such a low ownership; it is worth taking a shot on in at least one lineup. He is likely going to be in the 2-5 percent range this weekend and offers 30+ fantasy point upside.

Running Backs

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Ezekiel Elliott

53%

Devonta Freeman (Thu)

43%

Charcandrick West

39%

Devontae Booker

26%

Shocker, the leading rusher in the league, Ezekiel Elliott, faces off against the Browns and is the most popular play of the week. This was to be expected as the Browns are one of the worst teams in the league and Elliot has been a dominant runner all season. He will be the most popular running back this week and rightfully so.

Spencer Ware has been officially ruled out, so I expect to see Charcandrick West at over 50 percent as well in this weekend’s slate. The most popular combo will likely be West and Elliott, and I do not think it will be close. In fact, that appears to be the way to go in your cash game lineups. The Chiefs are at home and a 7.5 point favorite which is always a good sign for the running back. West could be in line to play over 85 percent of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs due to the lack of healthy running backs on the roster.

Devontae Booker was a free square last week and delivered. This week he is still receiving some interest despite a near double salary increase on some sites. The matchup is excellent, against a Raiders defense that has had trouble against the run, but the price is one I do not feel completely comfortable with. I still think he will be in the 15-20 percent range this weekend, with potential for it to be higher as we saw on Thursday night’s tournament on Aces.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Le’Veon Bell

12%

Theo Riddick

8%

Terrance West

4%

DeMarco Murray

3%

Latavius Murray

1%

Le’Veon Bell does not have the best matchup by any means, but he is still Le’Veon Bell and remains reasonably priced on some sites. As I have said in previous weeks, if I am getting running back of his caliber and at a fair price at this type of ownership, I am going to have interest Bell does it all on his offense and the game script does not affect him. He offers major upside, as well as, a safe floor. I have him in the mid-teens in my projections.

Theo Riddick is a running back that would normally receive more interest after a week like he had last week and his price across the industry, but the matchup against the Vikings is clearly steering people in a different direction. That being said, he is still too cheap on sites like DraftKings where he is $4,900 and being that it is a PPR format; he offers a ton of upside. He is averaging 7.2 targets and 5.7 receptions per game. I currently have him projected in the 7-11 percent range, and after seeing his ownership on Thursday, I am sticking to that range.

DeMarco Murray is battling a toe injury, but practiced this week and is ready to go. There is concern regarding Derrick Henry stealing touches, but Murray is still in a good situation. He faces off against a Chargers defense that has surrendered the third most rushing touchdowns to running backs. They have also given up the most receptions (66) and receiving yards (501) per game to backs. That is a critical stat because of Murray’s role in the passing game. He is going overlooked this weekend, which could be a mistake. In tournaments, I am of the opinion that he makes a very strong play.

Wide Receivers

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Mike Evans (Thu)

43%

Donte Moncrief

24%

Davante Adams

19%

Jarvis Landry

18%

Julio Jones (Thu)

18%

Michael Thomas

17%

I fully expect that Donte Moncrief will be the most popular wide receiver this weekend by a pretty large margin. He returned last game after missing several weeks and appeared to pick up right where he left off. This matchup is also appealing as the Packers secondary has been suspect all season and this contest could shootout. Not to mention, Moncrief is underpriced on most sites. Davante Adams was the third highest owned receiver on Thursday night in the Aces tournament, but I do not think that will necessarily be the case on Sunday. I think the Packers receivers will all receive a fair amount of attention, including Adams, but there is one who I will discuss below, that I believe will be the highest owned of the bunch. Nonetheless, Adams will potentially be in the 18-24 percent range this weekend (of course, if Cobb sits, that projection increases). The Jarvis Landry train is gaining steam this week and rightfully so. He is a high-volume receiver in a plus matchup. I expect him to be top three in ownership this weekend. Michael Thomas is no longer on the injury report and should receive a lot of attention this weekend. The matchup against the Niners is one that favors him, and he has been an efficient receiver for most of the season. At his low price, people will flock towards in, specifically on sites with PPR formats.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Stefon Diggs

11%

Dez Bryant

10%

Brandon Marshall

8%

Ty Montgomery

5%

Kenny Britt

2%

The ownership of the receiver position is funneling to a particular group of receivers this week leaving out some potential good plays off of most radars. Aside from Ty Montgomery who I believe will be over 20 percent owned this weekend, the rest of the receivers on the list above could be going overlooked.

I have heard some Stefon Diggs buzz this week, but he is in that price range with Ty Montgomery, Davante Adams, and Michael Thomas, ultimately leaving Diggs as the odd man out. That could be a mistake given that he is in a good spot and offers plenty of upside. I had him projected in the 15-20 percent range, but have adjusted it to 13-16 percent.

Usually one would target the number one receiver going up against the Browns, but in this instance, the running back is receiving so much attention that Dez Bryant appears to be going overlooked. He was targeted 13 times last week and has a great matchup. I expect more than 10 percent ownership, but if he is anywhere near 15 percent, I will be on the field as far as exposure is concerned. He makes an elite leverage play to Elliott.

Kenny Britt is very affordable across the industry, and he has been receiving a decent amount of targets (6.9 per game) throughout the season. This matchup is also decent as the Panthers are yielding 19.4 receptions, and 201.4 receiving yards per game and have surrendered nine receiving touchdowns. If you are looking for some salary relief in PPR format sites, he could be a sneaky tournament play with upside.

Tight Ends

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Austin Hooper (Thu)

34%

Greg Olsen

14%

Antonio Gates

12%

Kyle Rudolph

9%

This makes no sense to me at all, while I see the Hooper play on Thursday night, I am baffled that Kyle Rudolph was not at least the second highest owned tight end of the week. I do not think it will be particularly close this weekend as far as ownership is concerned, as I believe Rudolph will by far be the most owned tight end of the week. He is facing the Lions who have been atrocious against tight ends all season.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Travis Kelce

3%

Jason Witten

3%

The tight end position is very polarized this weekend, but if you are looking for some potentially very low owned tight ends, both Jason Witten and Travis Kelce are in solid spots and are barely receiving any attention. Rolling a Dak Prescott and Witten stack is a good way to differentiate yourself with a high owned quarterback.


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