Scouting The DFS NBA - Monday, November 7

We've got a solid 7-game slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown has you covered with the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: E’Twaun Moore has emerged as a solid value option with the Pelicans backcourt beset by injuries once again. Moore is averaging a solid 11.7 PPG and 2.7 RPG while playing 29.4 MPG this season and his playing time spiked with 36 minutes of run in a matchup against the Suns athletic backcourt, so he might see a similar workload against the Warriors prolific guards tonight.

Fade: There’s just too much that could go wrong to pay all the way up for Anthony Davis tonight. Sure, he produced an eye-popping line with 45 points and 17 boards in his second appearance of the season against the Warriors, but now he’ll go to Oracle Arena and he might wind up sitting throughout most of the second half if the Pelicans can’t keep this game close.

Games to Target

  1. Washington Wizards (-1.5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 216)
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) hosting Miami Heat (Over/Under = 203)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) vs. HOU DK:$8,800/FD:$9,200

It’s not really worth discussing Russell Westbrook’s DFS prospects on a full slate, as he’s established a very high floor and ceiling, but his price tag has risen to the point that he can change the entire complexion of your lineups. Westy should at least play in a close game for the first time in three appearances against Miami tonight, but Wall is going to play in a close game that should be quite high scoring. The Rockets are playing with pace and giving up the seventh-most PPG (108) while checking in at 28th in defensive rating with Mike D’Antoni at the helm this year. Houston gives up the fifth-most PPG (25.17) to opposing PGs this season and continues to struggle defensive with Pat Beverley (knee) out indefinitely, while Wall should be well rested after torching the Hawks on Friday and sitting out Saturday’s tilt against Orlando.

George Hill (UTA) @ PHI: DK:$6,500/FD:$6,000

If you can’t afford Westbrook but still want a PG that’s almost guaranteed to meet value in your lineups, consider Utah’s floor general. Hill didn’t have much upside in the Pacers system last year, but he’s seeing a 23.4% Usage Rate after a weak 15.8% number last season, and he’s scoring 20.4 PPG on solid .622% eFG shooting. Even with Gordon Hayward (finger) back in the lineup on Sunday, Hill managed to produce 23 points, 9 assists and 43.5 DK points (42.9 FD points) in a win over the Knicks, and now he’ll face a Sixers team that is giving up the third-most FPPG (48.79) to opposing PGs this year after getting torched by that position in each of the last several seasons.

Potential Value

Sergio Rodriguez ($5300/$5200) is a great mid-tier option to consider at a slightly lower price tag than Hill. Tyler Johnson ($4700/$4900) remains a solid low-end cash game play with the Heat visiting the fast-paced Thunder.

Longshot

Bet on Steph Curry ($8700/$8700) at home two nights after he went 0-for-10 from three and virtually cost his team a win against the lowly Lakers.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

James Harden (HOU) @ WAS: DK:$11,700/FD:$11,800

Once again, we’re almost forced to choose between Harden (and his likely 30-15 line) and a nightly triple double threat Westbrook. The Rockets floor general has been on fire with 101 points, 42 assists and 210.5 DK points over his last three appearances to flash tremendous upside. Houston’s defense is so abysmal that Harden is almost always going to wind up in close games down the stretch, and tonight he faces a Wizards squad that coughs up the fifth-most FPPG (41.2) and second-most APG (5.8) to opposing SGs this season. Bradley Beal is almost as poor of a defender as Harden himself, so look for The Beard to attack early and often in this game to target.

E’Twaun Moore (NO) @ GSW: DK:$4,100/FD:$4,400

The Pelicans are this year’s Celtics, or Nuggets, in the sense that the coaching staff is running wildly inconsistent rotations and it’s tough to predict which players might step up alongside Anthony Davis on a given night. Yet with Lance Stephenson (groin) out indefinitely, Jrue Holiday (personal) still on the shelf and Tim Frazier suddenly seeing just 40 minutes over his last two starts, Moore has emerged as a solid value option. The former Bulls guard is averaging a solid 11.7 PPG and 2.7 RPG while playing 29.4 MPG this season and his playing time spiked with 36 minutes of run in a matchup against the Suns athletic backcourt. Defense should be a priority for HC Alvin Gentry with the Pels visiting Oracle Arena tonight, so Moore seems like a good bet for heavy minutes once again in an effort to contain the Splash Bros.

Potential Value

Dion Waiters ($4600/$4600) struggled offensively in a tough matchup at Toronto during his last appearance, but that just sets up nicely for him to bounce back against his former team this evening.

Longshot

Eric Gordon ($5400/$5100) is a solid mid-tier option with some upside if the Rockets and Wizards get into a shootout. If you need a true punt play, take a chance on Sixers starting SG Gerald Henderson ($3400/$3900).

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kevin Durant (GSW) vs. NO: DK:$9,900/FD:$9,800

While the Warriors shockingly struggled in a loss at the Lakers, Durant continued to get his numbers with 27 points on another efficient shooting night (10-of-16 from the floor). He’s been a rock this season from a box score standpoint with averages of 30 PPG, 8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.3 SPG and 1 BPG, but the Dubs need to figure out some chemistry issues along with their defensive deficiencies. Tonight is a perfect opportunity to work on whatever they need against a winless Pelicans team that gives up the ninth-most PPG (100.3) in the NBA this season. New Orleans is playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the league and gives up the fourth-most FPPG (42.02) to opposing SFs this season, so KD is clearly an elite option who will likely only fall short of value if the Warriors pull away early.

Gordon Hayward (UTA) @ PHI: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,300

We mentioned how Hayward returned during an NFL Sunday, but not touch on his impressive line (28 points, 14-of-14 from the FT line) while logging 36 minutes in his season debut. Clearly, having his finger in a splint didn’t keep the hard-working wing player from staying in game shape, so he seems like a fine mid-tier option to consider on the second half of a B2B set. Hayward will of course face a shoddy 76ers defense that is allowing the eighth-most FPPG (41.11) to his position and frequently creates mismatches by trying to fit Dario Saric into the role of NBA SF (read: he’s too slow). Hayward should continue to serve as Utah’s primary scorer and perhaps he’ll improve his facilitating in an easy matchup tonight.

Potential Value

Justise Winslow ($5600/$5000) is a great cash game play in the mid-tier range, as he’s playing huge minutes for Miami. Also love Trevor Ariza ($5200/$4900) as a solid play with upside against his former team.

Longshot

C.J. Miles ($4100/$4200) will remain an under priced steal until he suffers some sort of in-game injury that burns his DFS owners.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. DET: DK:$8,000/FD:$8,500

You can’t really trust Anthony Davis outside of tournament formats, especially when his Pelicans (+17) are huge underdogs on the road. Yet Griffin’s Clippers (-8.5) are expected to play a closer game against an athletic young Pistons team that is getting some very inconsistent play from the frontcourt. Andre Drummond has been in and out of the lineup, while starting PF Tobias Harris is playing out of position a bit. Backup four-man Jon Leuer is not going to be any matchup for Blake, who has been steady all year with averages of 20.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 3 APG to produce 40.8 DK PPG. He just scored 28 points on efficient 13-of-29 shooting in a brutal matchup in San Antonio, so you can definitely trust him in cash games tonight at a reasonable price tag on DK.

Terrance Jones (NO) @ GSW: DK:$4,700/FD:$4,400

While Davis is a risky option at his lofty price tag, Jones proved that he can essentially match The Brow’s production at a much, much cheaper cost when he went off for 19 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 blocks for 46.75 DK points (45.4 FD points) in an OT loss to the Suns on Friday. He made the most of his opportunity to start next to Davis and he’s clearly a better fit for this team than offensively inept center Omer Asik. Look for T-Jones to draw another start tonight against the fast-paced Warriors- a team that is somehow giving up the most DK PPG to opposing PFs this season. But the Dubs will do everything they can to slow down Davis in this matchup, which could potentially leave Jones open on the offensive end.

Potential Value

Frank Kaminsky ($4300/$4000) has been solid in spot work for the Hornets and he could see an expanded role tonight with Marvin Williams (illness) questionable to suit up.

Longshot

Ersan Ilyasova ($4300/$3800) has been very productive since joining the Sixers and he’s worth a look even if in a tough matchup against the Jazz tonight.

Centers

Two Studs

Hassan Whiteside (MIA) @ OKC: DK:$8,600/FD:$8,500

Hassan Whiteside, the destroyer of worlds, completely ruined the Raptors offensive game plan last Friday night and it’s shocking that he was only credited with one block after he dominated the defensive paint in that close contest. Of course, he still exceeded value easily with 21 points, 16 boards and 3 dimes, and most importantly, he was able to log 38 minutes by avoiding foul trouble until late in that game. That’s the biggest concern for Whiteside tonight with Westbrook likely flying into the paint with reckless abandon, but Westy’s playing style also gives the league’s best shot blocker more upside by giving him opportunities to send those lay-up attempts into the front row. In any case, he should do his best to keep Miami in this game on the road and produce a double double for the sixth time in as many appearances this season.

Joel Embiid (PHI) vs. UTA: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,000

If he were getting 36 minutes of playing time per game, Embiid would theoretically be averaging 30.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks while hitting 2.5 threes in each appearance. Of course, he’s limited to just 25 minutes of run until the Sixers feel that their franchise player is fully healthy, but he’s priced accordingly on both main DFS sites and remains a steal considering his upside. “The Process” has dropped 40 points, 16 boards and 8 blocks to produce 84 DK points (72.7 FD points) over his last two appearances and he should be ready to go after resting on Sunday. The Jazz represent a pretty tough matchup for opposing centers, but I’ll trust the process when it comes to players like Embiid and their lofty FP per minute production.

Potential Value

Bismack Biyombo ($3600/$4500) is earning steady minutes in Orlando’s crowded frontcourt, and he’s an intriguing punt play because of his defensive prowess.

Longshot

He responded to his benching with a near 20-20 game, so Andre Drummond ($8100/$8200) clearly remains in play as a GPP option.


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