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Week 10: Vegas Vs. Fantasy

Using Vegas' odds, lines and spreads, Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal gets a feel for how this week's matchups will pan out. It's not a perfect science; however, it illustrates trends generated by some of the world's best handicappers.

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My goal each week is to look through the Vegas lines and point out which offenses you should be targeting and which defenses are in good situations. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the three games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game

Open Total

Live Total

Movement

Steelers vs. Cowboys

49.5

50.5

+1

Eagles vs. Falcons

49.5

50

+0.5

Patriots vs. Seahawks

48.5

49.5

+1

The Steelers host the Cowboys in a game that Vegas is projecting to be the highest scoring and also a close one as it only has a 2.5 point spread. Both teams are expected to score more than three touchdowns in this contest. From the Dallas side, the usual suspects such as Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, and Ezekiel Elliott are must plays. Also, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten could come into play here as this could become a shootout, so they may see some extra looks. The same can be said for the Steelers regulars, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Big Ben are all in play. You can even throw in Sammie Coates into the mix. In a game like this one, it is easier to identify where the production is going to come from because these offenses funnel through the same players the majority of the time. Since each of these teams are expected to score plenty of points, selecting the players that are usually receiving the bulk of the work is the way to go.

The Falcons head to Philly to take on the Eagles in the only other game with a 50 or more projected total. This contest is also expected to be close as Vegas currently has it as a pick em, which means that there is no spread. The Eagles opened as favorites, but that is no longer the case, which could be a sign that the bets are being placed on the Falcons. Much like the game above, the usual suspects on both of these offenses are in play as both the Falcons and Eagles are expected to score three touchdowns. This is a game that you want exposure to in DFS. The Falcons are weak defensively but are far more vulnerable against the pass, which bodes well for Carson Wentz, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and even Darren Sproles who was targeted nine times last week.

The Patriots host the Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl 49. This contest has the third high projected total of the slate at 49.5 points. Unlike the previous two games, the Patriots are 7.5 point favorites here, so Vegas is expecting a more lopsided game in this matchup. The Patriots have an implied team total of 28.5 points, which is the second highest of the week. While the Seahawks defense is good, with Tom Brady under center, this offense should roll. The usual suspects are in play here, Gronk, Edelman, Brady, and James White or Dion Lewis, whichever of the two gets the start in this one. This is an offense that may go overlooked in DFS because of the matchup, but there is a lot of points expected to come from New England. However, in this instance, it is not as easy to pinpoint the production as they spread the ball around. From Seattle’s side, Russell Wilson and his pass catchers are what we should be looking at here as they are expected to be trailing and chasing points, which will eliminate any upside in the running game.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Game

Open O/U

Live O/U

Move

Jets vs. Rams

41

40

-1

This is one of those games where you typically look at and carry on about your day. Both of these offenses are very vanilla, and although there are some big names on them, it is difficult to trust anyone on either side. Todd Gurley is a great running back but has struggled this season and also gets a tough matchup, ruling him out in DFS. Granted, in season-long leagues you are riding him out the rest of the way. On the Jets side, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall are not players to bench in season-long leagues but are tough to be excited about in DFS. For those in season-long leagues that are forced the play them, just temper your expectations. The one intriguing option of this game is the Rams defense.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Game

Spread

49ers

+13.5

Arizona

-13.5

The matchup between the Cardinals and the Bucs is expected to be very one-sided as Arizona is a heavy favorite. They are projected to win by nearly two touchdowns. The Cardinals have the highest implied team total of the week at 30.75 points. Everyone on the Arizona offense is in play, but the one player that could be in for a huge game is David Johnson. He is a big part of this offense, and with his team projected to score over four touchdowns, he is in a favorable position to score at least one. Not to mention, this is a Niners defense that is atrocious against running backs. As far as the 49ers is concerned, you would normally want a quarterback who is chasing points, but not in this instance as the Niners have the lowest implied team total and the Cardinals defense is good. This is a fade spot for me.

**The Bears and Bucs line was not out at the time of this article.**

Vegas lines are very helpful, and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.


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