Well, it was almost Brooks week last week, as I suspected. Unfortunately, he’s making a name for himself as a non-closer, although this was more of Rod Pampling playing incredibly well than Brooks’ blowing a chance to win. The fall swing, in general, has been very good to us. We’ve been able to target some of the web.com Tour graduates who have come out on fire. Notably, guys like Ryan Blaum, Trey Mullinax, and Ryan Brehm have had strong finishes and are making tons of birdies.
Daily and weekly fantasy sports have become all the rage. Battling it out over an entire season is fun, but sites like DraftKings offer a quicker payoff and big payouts for winners! Not only do they provide daily action in the four major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) as well as college basketball and football but also the PGA Tour.
Your DraftKings lineup is made up of six golfers you select from within the $50,000 salary cap.
Each week DraftKings offers a wide selection of games to enter at a variety of price points. You can even get a feel for the game in a freeroll contest. Before you put your cash on the line, I'll offer my Top Values and Steals in this space every week, specifically geared to help build a winning DraftKings squad. I'll also give you my Overpriced golfers to avoid and a couple of “Vegas Says…” tips to help you find those players for GPPs.
This week, we head to Mexico for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. El Camaleon Golf Club is the host, and we have plenty of course history to draw upon. The course is an extremely short par-71, with four par-3s and three par-5s. All of the par-5s play pretty easy, so they’re going to be that way for all players in the field. All but one of the par-3s plays under 160 yards, so we should see a higher than usual number of par-3 birdies. Because of that, I’m not going to focus on bombers and par-5 scoring, but more on accuracy, par-3 scoring, and par-4 scoring. I think players who hit a high percentage of their fairways (and thus, greens), will be atop the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. There’s a ton of trouble off the tee, including sand dunes, jungle vegetation, and canals that are automatic penalty strokes. And with no ShotTracker this week, prepare for plenty of tilt when the double bogeys pop up on the scoreboard. However, with rain in the forecast this week, players who keep their drives in play will be flag hunting. I’m going to keep targeting birdie-makers with upside, as we should see an absolute birdie fest here this week.
Recent Tournament History
Here is the data we can draw upon for this week’s Tournament History:
Finished in the top-20 each of the last three years: Jason Bohn.
Finished in the top-20 in two of the last three years: Scott Brown, Charles Howell III, Johnson Wagner, Jason Kokrak, Will MacKenzie, Peter Malnati.
Current Form Review
Each week, we’ll take a look backward at the last three tournaments on the PGA and European Tours. I’ve included the top-20 from each of the past three events, and highlighted the players in this field:
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
There are not many weeks where we aren’t going to target birdie or better percentage because that’s what fantasy golf scoring is all about. Guys like Jon Rahm, Emiliano Grillo, Tony Finau, and web.com Tour graduates Grayson Murray, Ryan Blaum, and JT Poston comes to mind in this week’s field when targeting birdie-makers. It’s possible to have a player finish top-10 in fantasy points while not finishing anywhere close to the top-10 in the actual event.
Good Drive Percentage (GD%):
You can target driving accuracy alone, but I also wanted to target some distance metrics, as distance (when drives are straight) is a huge advantage anywhere. As mentioned, the rough/hazards off the tee can be very penal, so keeping the ball in play off the tee is essential. Certain bombers can overcome bad drives because they hit it far enough that they’ll have wedges in their hands anyways. And shorter hitters will still pop in this stat because they hit a ton of fairways. Some names in the field that pop from 2015’s GD% rankings are Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, David Hearn, Webb Simpson, and Jason Bohn.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
This week should be a birdie fest for the players, and as mentioned, there’s an extra par-4 on the course. With almost the entire field able to reach par-5s in two and the par-3s playing easy, the par-4 performance will set players apart from the rest of the field. Some of the names I mentioned above (Chez Reavie, Jason Bohn, and Webb Simpson) also check this box. Another thing that’s great about par-4 scoring is that we have data on the new web.com Tour players. C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Grayson Murray, and Martin Flores are all elite par-4 scorers from the web.com Tour who are in the field this week.