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Plays of the Day
Value: Danny Green debuted with 8 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals and a block over 26 minutes on Wednesday and his playing time should only rise as one of the faces of the new-look Spurs. He's a great two-way player with a deadly three-point shot and he could definitely find success against a Pistons defense that was recently demolished by the Clippers in Los Angeles.
Fade: LeBron James should do a great job of leading his Cavs to a bounce back win after they suffered their first loss of the season, but I’m not sure if that will translate to success in DFS terms. He’s facing a tough Wizards defense that might keep the game relatively low scoring and he could defer to Kyrie Irving in a PG duel with John Wall.
Games to Target
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+5) hosting Los Angeles Clippers (Over/Under = 203.5)
- Portland Blazers (-7) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 209.5)
Chris Paul (LAC) @ OKC DK:$8,900/FD:$9,300
Every time the Clippers take the floor, Paul seems to be going head-to-head against an elite PG who is younger and more athletic than him, yet he often comes out on top in the box score. That could be the case in relative terms tonight as he faces Russell Westbrook and the Thunder on the road and should finally get a full slate of minutes in a close game. He's been around value over his last two games, but those were massive blowouts in which the 7-1 Clippers were up by around 30 points by halftime. In the Clips' last three close games, CP3 has averaged 17 PPG, 10 APG, 6.8 RPG and 3.4 SPG to exceed value by a wide margin. He's still reasonably priced and seems like a great cash game option as an alternative to the ultra-expensive Westbrook.
Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. TOR: DK:$7,500/FD:$8,100
The Hornets are 6-1 and Walker is an MVP candidate at this early juncture in the season. While that doesn’t mean too much in DFS terms, consider the fact that his floor has been 36 DK points and his ceiling is around 50+ FPs, or higher if the Hornets wind up in a game that goes down to the wire or overtime. That’s definitely possible with the first-place Raptors (+3) visiting Charlotte, as Toronto came to town last December and Kemba put up 27 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds while playing a whopping 44 minutes in an OT win. He’s been under priced on DraftKings throughout most of the season and just exceeded value in B2B tough matchups against the Pacers and Jazz, so you can trust him against another solid defensive team.
Sergio Rodriguez ($5100/$5200) may be lightly owned because of his disappointing line last time out, but he simply missed open shots and he should bounce back as the Sixers unquestioned floor general.
Patty Mills ($4600/$4500) should start with Tony Parker (knee) looking likely to rest tonight. Ish Smith ($4700/$5400) is a longshot on the other side of the ball if you believe that the Pistons can hang in San Antonio.
Avery Bradley (BOS) vs. NYK: DK:$7,000/FD:$6,900
This is a two-part recommendation in the sense that I would take DeMar DeRozan at only $8,200 on DK regardless of his tough matchup in Charlotte, while it makes more sense to roll with AB on FanDuel given the $2K difference in their price tags. Despite the Celtics horrible performances against the Nuggets and Wizards in successive games, Bradley has been able to meet or exceed value while playing huge minutes. Now Boston (-6) returns home for a rivalry game against a weak Knicks squad and the C’s should win, or at least remain competitive for four quarters. AB should continue to see steady run with Jae Crowder (ankle) out at least another week and the Celtics shorthanded, while he’s able to contribute with stats across the board and therefore makes for a great cash game play.
Danny Green (SAS) vs. DET: DK:$4,000/FD:$4,500
Green is a fantastic value as he returns from injury and prepares to make his second appearance of the season. He looked no worse for the wear with 8 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals and a block over 26 minutes on Wednesday and his playing time should only rise as one of the faces of the new-look Spurs. He's a great two-way player with a deadly three-point shot and he could definitely find success against a Pistons team that was recently demolished by the Clippers in Los Angeles and could fold in San Antonio. A blowout would certainly hurt his potential, but Green is cheap enough to meet value tonight in three quarters.
Gerald Henderson ($3500/$4000) is almost free on DK and he just doubled the value of that price tag in a close game against Indy on Wednesday.
If Bradley Beal (hamstring) sits tonight, Marcus Thornton ($4200/$3800) would emerge as a cheap tournament option with plenty of upside. Also consider the Blazers Allen Crabbe ($3900/$3600) if he gets a second chance to start at SF after Wednesday’s blowout loss.
Kawhi Leonard (SAS) vs. DET: DK:$9,100/FD:$8,900
LeBron James is the elite SF on the board as per usual, but his motivation is always suspect and he has two star scorers playing alongside him that can seriously sap his DFS value. While Kawhi’s Spurs (-8.5) are favored tonight, it’s not by too much, as the rest of his teammates are playing shoddy defense and they’re not exactly lighting the league on fire. Leonard has shouldered a much heavier load on offense this year with a career-high 33.5% Usage Rate that is the fifth highest in the league and his offseason work with Kobe Bryant is showing in his cutthroat attitude out there. The Pistons have no personnel capable of containing this young superstar and he’ll almost certainly flirt with 50 FPs once again if the Spurs wind up in another close game.
C.J. Miles (IND) @ PHI: DK:$5,000/FD:$4,400
His price tag is slowly rising, but Miles remains a great source of salary relief on both main DFS sites. He just exceeded value once again with 12 points and 23 DK points over 32 minutes of run in an OT win over these Sixers, and now he faces the same team on the road in a game with an Over/Under of 214 points. Miles is a knockdown shooter and the 76ers rank 24th in opponent’s 3PT shooting (.362%) and 29th in FG defense (.471%) this year. As long as he’s a value play who is getting steady run on this squad, he makes for a better per dollar option than disappointing superstar Paul George in DFS contests.
Robert Covington ($5200/$4700) is a solid mid-tier option on the Sixers side of the ball, as he seems to have found his stroke from deep lately.
Jaylen Brown ($3900/$3500) has flopped as a starter in consecutive blowout losses and Brad Stevens is quick to yank him, but there’s a chance he holds his own against the Knicks at home this evening.
Blake Griffin (LAC) @ OKC: DK:$8,500/FD:$8,700
I’d be tempted to save a bit and roll with Kristaps Porzingis ($7300/$6900) against a shorthanded Celtics frontcourt tonight, but Blake is clearly the safer option as one of two offensive studs for the Clippers. Few teams have as predictable of an offense in DFS terms, which has turned Griffin and Paul into cash game staples this year. While they’ve still managed to meet or exceed value in some blowout wins lately, Griffin will have a much better chance to put up big numbers in a tough road test this evening. He absolutely dominated rookie Domantas Sabonis and whomever the Thunder threw at him off the bench in the last meeting between these teams and he’s been locked in all year with per game averages of 19.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG and 4 APG while playing just 31 MPG.
Derrick Favors (UTA) @ ORL: DK:$6,200/FD:$5,900
Favors is one of those players who has been coming along slowly, but is poised for a big game at some point, which makes him a great GPP play. The big man turned in a solid double double in a close tilt at Charlotte earlier this week, and now he'll face a Magic squad that might be the worst in the NBA in terms of defending the paint. Orlando allows the most FPPG (54.03) to opposing centers this year and ranks 28th in opponents FG shooting (.468%), while Favors can do most of his damage on the low block. Defenses should key in on Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert is a very raw offensive player, so Favors might surprise by handling an increased load on offense this evening.
Patrick Patterson ($4400/$4000) is producing for the Raptors and he might continue to see extended run if Jonas Valanciunas (knee) is inactive or limited tonight.
The Celtics need Amir Johnson ($4300/$4200) to step up with Al Horford (concussion) still out tonight. We’ll see if he can rise to the challenge at home.
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) @ POR: DK:$10,000/FD:$9,500
His price tag is down a little bit and for once this season, we’re recommending Cousins as an elite play on a full slate. His play has been erratic and the Kings have been blown out plenty of times this season, but he’s still the primary option on a fast-paced team and he draws a great matchup tonight against the Blazers. Portland gives up the second-most FPPG (53.82) and fourth-most PPG (23.22) to opposing centers this season, while their starting front court of Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh seriously lacks the beef necessary to guard Big Cuz down low. He makes for an elite GPP play and a great pairing with Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum if you believe this game will be close throughout.
Joel Embiid (PHI) vs. IND: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,200
It's always a great to play NBA DFS when Embiid is announced as active and his price tag remains this low. The young stud is expected to play his usual 25 minutes tonight and rest tomorrow on the second half of a B2B set, and he draws a great matchup in which to continue putting up his crazy numbers. "The Process" is averaging 29.6 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per 36 minutes during his first NBA campaign and even though he's getting approximately 60 percent of that playing time, it's been enough for him to exceed value each and every time he takes the floor.
Pau Gasol ($5200/$5600) has barely been playing for the Spurs, but he could see more run than usual in a tough matchup against Andre Drummond tonight. Tyler Zeller ($4100/$4000) is a value play with less upside.
Marcin Gortat ($6400/$6000) is a very solid play in any format, but I believe he has upside against a Cavs front line that can be vulnerable at times.