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Plays of the Day
Value: Tyler Johnson stepped up with 14 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists over 32 minutes after Gordan Dragic was injured on Thursday and he’s probably going to start against the Jazz this evening with Dragic doubtful. The combo guard has a versatile skill set and he could fill the stat sheet when given a full slate of minutes.
Fade: I’ve learned not to doubt DeMar DeRozan this year, but I’ll certainly doubt the Knicks. Toronto is a massive favorite tonight and it makes the Raptors star backcourt worth fading if you expect a blowout win at home.
Games to Target
- Houston Rockets (+1.5) hosting San Antonio Spurs (Over/Under = 209.5)
- Indiana Pacers (-2.5) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 218.5)
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) @ IND: DK:$7,900/FD:$8,200
I don't believe you can find a safer PG at this price point tonight, as Thomas is simply carrying the Celtics offense right now and he's in a great spot against an exhausted Pacers team that just went to OT for the second time and somehow lost to the 76ers on Friday. Indiana is now giving up the most PPG (113.2) in the NBA and is ranked 27th in defensive rating while coughing up an above average 44.76 FPPG and 23.96 PPG to opposing PGs this season. IT4 carved up the Knicks for 29 points over 28 minutes before taking a seat in a blowout win, so he should be well rested on the second half of a B2B set, and he actually average more PPG (23.8) and APG (6.3) last year on 0 days rest than in any other situation.
Tyler Johnson (MIA) vs. UTA DK:$5,600/FD:$5,000
With Goran Dragic (ankle) doubtful to suit up just two days after suffering that injury, Johnson will get a chance to prove that he’s worth that exorbitant 50 million dollar contract he signed this offseason. The young combo guard stepped in with 14 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists over 32 minutes after Dragic was injured on Thursday and Johnson is probably going to start against the Jazz this evening. The matchup is less than ideal, but his price tag is certainly appealing and his prospects could see an upgrade if George Hill (thumb) is unable to go for a third straight game. In Johnson, we’re talking about a player that averages 17.4 points per 36 minutes this year, so you should be able to trust him in cash games if he’s slated for 30-35 minutes as a starter.
Tyus Jones ($3900/$4400) is coming off B2B great games for the Wolves, but he’ll certainly be put to the test if he wins up facing off with Chris Paul for stretches tonight.
Tim Frazier ($6200/$5700) will likely yield his starting job to Jrue Holiday next week, but tonight he’ll be free to torch a porous Lakers defense and fill the stat sheet.
James Harden (HOU) vs. SAS: DK:$11,300/FD:$11,500
If the season ended today, James Harden, and not Russell Westbrook, would be the MVP of the league and probably the MVP in DFS circles as well. He’s fallen short of value just twice this season and he remains relatively affordable in a home tilt that is almost assuredly going to be competitive. The Spurs were unable to stop Harden in his new role as PG, as he dropped 15 dimes for the fourth time in five appearances and added 12 rebounds for a triple double. He’s still turning the ball over at a high rate, but that’s hardly a reason to fade him with his Rockets (+1.5) checking in as slight underdogs. Harden seems motivated to a new degree and he clearly grasps the implications of his leadership on the new-look Rockets, so he’ll look to continue making a statement by grinding out a big game against Kawhi Leonard and company once again.
Danny Green (SAS) @ HOU: DK:$4,500/FD:$4,500
Leave it to Gregg Popovich to rest a guy after he's played one (yes, 1!) game all season, but that's what he did for Green after the versatile SG made his season debut on Wednesday. Green should be good to go on the second half of a B2B set while other Spurs could get "Popped" and he's in much better position to put up great offensive numbers against the Rockets porous defense. Houston ranks 26th in defensive rating and 25th in 3PT defense this season, while James Harden and Eric Gordon hardly create imposing matchups for opposing backcourts on the defensive end.
Sean Kilpatrick ($5500/$5300) fell short of value in his first start at PG for the Nets, but his usage is encouraging and now he’ll face a Suns team that gives up the most FPPG to opposing PGs this season.
Marcus Thornton ($4800/$3800) completely flopped in a tough matchup last night, but he’ll still be worth using if John Wall rests on the second half of a B2B set.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. LAC: DK:$6,400/FD:$6,500
A matchup between the 8-1 Clippers and 2-5 Wolves might seem like a beatdown on paper, but it's in Minnesota and the Clips are coming off a heated rivalry game at Oklahoma City last night, while the young Wolves are rested. Wiggins has really found his groove lately with 65 points on combined 23-of-47 shooting over his last two appearances and the Clippers biggest weakness is their inability to find consistency on the wing. Still just 21 years old, Wiggins is a fantastic talent, who is capable of becoming an elite and consistent scorer in the NBA, so perhaps he'll help Karl-Anthony Towns carry the offense in a matchup with the high-scoring Clippers.
C.J. Miles (IND) vs. BOS: DK:$5,000/FD:$4,400
Miles remains a great source of salary relief at the very same price tag on both main DFS sites tonight, and he’s become much safer since he’s now starting at SG over Monta Ellis. If that’s the case again tonight, he’ll be a great play against a Celtics team that’s suddenly forgotten how to play defense. Boston gives up the third-most FPPG (41.04) to opposing SGs and third-most FPPG (44.33) to opposing SFs this season, as the C’s are clearly missing two-way dynamo Jae Crowder (ankle). With double-digit scoring performances in six consecutive appearances, Miles has established a solid floor, and he should continue to find success in a game with a lofty Over/Under (218.5) this evening.
Josh Richardson ($4100/$3600 as SG on FD) is starting to warm up for the Heat and he should see a big rise in playing time with Dragic out.
Robert Covington ($5400/$4700) played 40 minutes for the Sixers last night and he could see heavy run again with Joel Embiid (rest) out. If Beal and Wall both sit, you could consider Otto Porter ($6800/$6500) at an otherwise unreasonable price tag.
Anthony Davis (NOP) @ LAL: DK:$11,500/FD:$11,600
He’s becoming extremely expensive for good reason, as Davis has established a floor that is really on comparable to Westbrook and Harden right now. The Pelicans superstar has dropped 32-plus points in three straight games, and 50 DK points in four straight since he was stymied by Memphis at the beginning of the month. While the Lakers are a better defensive team under new HC Luke Walton, they still rank 26th in opponents FG shooting (.464%) and give up an above average 46.44 FPPG to opposing centers this year. The Lakers are also playing at the third-fastest pace while the Pelicans play at eighth-fastest pace in the NBA this season, so this is clearly a game to target and Davis is obviously the safest player to target on either side.
Jabari Parker (MIL) vs. MEM: DK:$6,200/FD:$6,500
Like Wiggins, the other prized member of that 2015 draft class is finding his rhythm at this early juncture in the season. The Duke product went off for a season-high 33 points in a loss to the Pelicans on Thursday, as the Bucks coaching staff clearly determined that giving Giannis Antetokounmpo the keys to the offense on every possession is not a winning recipe. Parker is a walking mismatch at the elbow because of his explosive first step and strength down low, so neither JaMychal Green nor Zach Randolph should be able to slow him down in Milwaukee this evening.
Patrick Patterson ($4400/$4000) continued to meet value even with Jonas Valanciunas (knee) back in the lineup last night and he might see plenty of run as a bench player if the Raptors blow out the Knicks.
Terrence Jones ($4700/$4500) remains a risky play, but a viable GPP alternative if you can’t afford the Brow against the Lakers.
Andre Drummond (DET) vs. DEN: DK:$7,500/FD:$8,200
Big Dre is simply mis-priced on DraftKings right now due to his ability to drop huge double doubles on a nightly basis. He was called out by HC Stan Van Gundy last week and has since responded with averages of 18 PPG and 15.8 RPG over his last four appearances. That includes a 20-17 game in the toughest possible matchup for centers against the Spurs last night, as well as a 19-20 game against these Nuggets last Saturday. Now he's facing the same team that ranks 25th in FG defense and struggles to defend the paint despite the ascendancy of Bosnian Beast Jusuf Nurkic.
Marc Gasol (MEM) @ MIL: DK:$7,100/FD:$7,100
While his price tag isn’t a mistake like Drummond, Gasol is reasonably affordable on both main DFS sites and thus makes for a great cash game play. The Grizzlies MVP is playing well on both ends of the floor as you might expect with averages of 18.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.7 BPG this season. He’s established a floor of around 30 FPs in each appearance and his playing time has been consistent because Memphis is not blowing anyone out with a dramatically weaker defense this year. Now he’ll face a Bucks team that gives up the sixth-most FPPG (48.51) to opposing centers this year and doesn’t really have a true big man to deploy down low, so Gasol should once again be a big factor in this road tilt.
Mike Muscala ($3600/$4000 as PF on FD) is almost more appealing than Dwight Howard or Paul Millsap because the Hawks are likely to win in blowout fashion at home tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic ($5700/$5500) is a great candidate to bounce back from B2B disappointing games against Drummond, who just allowed Pau Gasol to post his first big line of the season.