Projecting Week 10 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Mark Morales-Smith's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Ownership percentages are something we must take into consideration when creating our tournament lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analysts or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint a picture of where the crowd is headed. 

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 642 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Marcus Mariota

31%

Dak Prescott

22%

Jay Cutler

17%

Ben Roethlisberger

14%

Looking at this list of highly owned quarterbacks I don’t particularly love any of them. Yes, Marcus Mariota has been hot and the Packers secondary is a mess, but it’s still hard to trust him enough that his ownership should be this high. The theory is he’ll be playing from behind and will have to throw the ball. Nonetheless, we saw his production slip around this time last season and his weapons are still subpar. He’s a solid option. However, he’d be far from my top choice. Dak Prescott is a talented young game manager. He’s thrown 12 touchdowns in eight games and is yet to have a 300-yard game. His best Fantasy game of his career last week when he threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns. That’s not that good of a game when you’re playing the Browns. I fully expect the Dallas Cowboys to attempt to control the clock and run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott this week against the Steelers. This offense is very similar to what the Miami Dolphins have been doing the past three weeks, and we saw Jay Ajayi gash this Steelers defense for over 200 yards. Jay Cutler isn’t all that good at football, so there’s that. His floor is incredibly low for such a high ownership percentage. Big Ben always makes sense. Assuming he looks healthier than last week, he has as much upside as any quarterback in the league. He’s the fifth-most expensive quarterback with overall QB1 upside. He and Antonio Brown are as dangerous a duo this league has seen.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Carson Wentz

10%

Tom Brady

10%

Carson Palmer

9%

Jameis Winston

8%

These quarterbacks look like what the high ownership group should. Carson Wentz has been struggling mightily since being declared the next superstar after about three weeks of his career. His price has plummeted, and this week he takes on the Atlanta Falcons defense who everybody torches. They’re averaging giving up 321 yards and almost three touchdowns per game. That alone makes Wentz a strong option at this price. Tom Brady is never a bad option. Many will be scared off by the Seattle Seahawks defense. However, we have seen him face off with a better version of this defense on the grandest stage of them all. In the Super Bowl just two short years ago he completed 74 percent of his passes for 328 yards and four TDs. He’s matchup proof. I understand why Carson Palmer is so low. He’s a boom-or-bust quarterback. That’s not necessarily a good thing when it comes to quarterbacks. The Arizona Cardinals are also playing the San Francisco 49ers. Odds are they’ll be up by close to 20 points by halftime, and they’ll end up running the ball upwards of 40 times. I’m very high on Winston this week. I believe his ownership will be higher in many leagues. Mike Evans is the top wide receiver this week in my opinion and stacking him with Winston just makes sense against the Bears defense.

Running Backs

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

David Johnson

64%

Melvin Gordon

33%

Jordan Howard

20%

Devonta Freeman

18%

David Johnson is the No. 1 Fantasy running back against by far the worst defense against running backs. There isn’t much to explain here. Melvin Gordon is coming off a gigantic Fantasy week and is having a great Fantasy season. The San Diego Chargers have no choice but to feed him relentlessly and after scoring no TDs last year, he’s become a touchdown machine. The Dolphins defense is particularly good at tackling, so that’s in his favor. It will be fun watching him, and Jay Ajayi try to pile up 400 combined yards between the two. I didn’t think Jordan Howard would be this highly owned. However, he deserves to be. Hopefully, we all remember him racking up over 200 yards two weeks ago against the Minnesota Vikings stout defense. This is his offense now and expect him to take the ball and run with him. Once Tevin Coleman was once again ruled out, Devonta Freeman was a no-brainer for this list. He’s one of the safest picks out there because of his high usage rate and well-rounded game.  

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Robert Kelley

9%

Lamar Miller

8%

Kapri Bibbs

6%

DuJuan Harris

5%

Robert Kelley is a guy that is going to be a Fantasy darling very soon. Buy him while he still has this low price and low ownership rate. He has been named the feature back of the Washington Redskins, and I would be shocked to see Matt Jones and his fumbling issues regain his job at any point. Lamar Miller hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype. He’s become a volume dependent Fantasy back. The upside is there and so is the floor. Kapri Bibbs is popular among the pros. There have been talks all week that he may have already supplanted Devontae Booker as the top back. If he has, we’ve seen his explosive side with a 69-yard TD reception last week and higher efficiency on the ground. DuJuan Harris has exploded onto the scene. With Carlos Hyde beat up, Harris is an attractive low-price option. He’s guaranteed to get an abundance of work, which skyrockets his value.

Wide Receivers

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

J.J. Nelson

35%

Alshon Jeffery

35%

Mike Evans

19%

Tyrell Williams

19%

J.J. Nelson has been climbing the Cardinals depth chart and now he’s ascending the DFS ownership ranks. You can make a direct link from Palmer’s high ownership to Nelson’s. Coming off a game with eight catches, 12 targets, and two TDs, it’s easy to see the appeal. Starting a guy after the greatest game of his life can go either way, though. Like with Palmer, you can see the correlation between Alshon Jeffery and Cutler. Jeffery’s value seems to be hinged to Cutler who relentless targets him, which wasn’t the case with Brian Hoyer under center. Evans is my WR1 this week with Julio Jones and Antonio Brown close behind. He is well worth the cost of his hefty price tag this week against the Bears. Tyrell Williams has been outstanding all season when not facing off with the Denver Broncos’ dominant DBs. With Travis Benjamin sidelined with a knee injury, Williams should be in for a big day against the Dolphins subpar cornerbacks.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Antonio Brown

11%

Larry Fitzgerald

10%

Tyreek Hill

10%

Jordan Matthews

9%

Antonio Brown is always near the top of the rankings. He’s a superstar of the highest level. Ben Roethlisberger’s shaky knee and AB’s high price tag surely plays a role in his lower ownership. Still, he’s the safest WR option on a weekly basis. With everyone all over Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald has slipped. Fantasy owners may live to regret that when they look back at their Week 10 lineups. Hill’s low ownership is pretty high for him. Jeremy Maclin being ruled out has inflated his value. He’s now the best option in Kansas City and there isn’t much more to it than that. As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons’ defense is atrocious against the passing attack, which is why I like Wentz so much this week. Fortunately for Matthews, he’s the only real option Wentz has. If you like Wentz, you almost have to like Matthews too.

Tight Ends

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Antonio Gates

19%

C.J. Fiedorowicz

11%

Zach Miller

10%

Rob Gronkowski

8%

Gates has been playing well catching a TD in each of his past two games. He and Philip Rivers have been doing this for so long it’s hard not to trust him. He, like Williams, benefits from all the injuries in San Diego. No matter who is injured, Rivers is still going to throw the ball often. Fiedorowicz has had a nice five-game run and is still relatively affordable. It’s tough to trust the Houston Texans’ passing attack, but he’s been a low floor, decent upside option at a reasonable price. Again, Miller is tied to Cutler just like Jeffery was. DFS owners are clearly very high on the Bears offense this week. I’m never all that high on the Bears passing attack. Gronk is Gronk. He’s probably the greatest Fantasy tight end to step on the field. He’s never too far from the top of this list. Like his quarterback, he’s matchup proof.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Zach Ertz

6%

Jimmy Graham

5%

Austin Hooper

5%

Greg Olsen

5%

Zach Ertz hasn’t failed to disappoint this season. However, the coaching staff has been saying they want to feature him in the red zone more moving forward. Whether that materializes remains to be seen, but it’s worth paying attention too. Jimmy Graham has been outstanding. I was a doubter that he would bounce back from that injury this fast. Nevertheless, he has and looks to be back to his old self. Austin Hooper is a guy I pushed hard on Twitter last week before Thursday Night Football, and he came out and caught a TD pass. With Jacob Tamme out again, he’ll be starting in quite a few of my lineups. Greg Olsen is right up there with Gronk and Jordan Reed as one of the few sure things at this position. He’s never a bad option.


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