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Scouting The NBA DFS - Friday, November 18

We break down tonight's 10-game slate of NBA action with the top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Seth Curry should start at PG for Dallas tonight with both J.J. Barea and Deron Williams suffering calf injuries on Wednesday. Memphis coughs up the fourth-most PPG (24.73) to opposing SGs this season, while Curry is playing 32.3 MPG over his last four appearances with a 21.1% Usage Rate that is sure to spike in his new role as starting PG.

Fade: Russell Westbrook’s matchup looks great on paper, but his ridiculous price tag on DK combined with the possibility of an easy blowout win over the Nets creates too much risk on a full slate of NBA action.

Games to Target

  1. Boston Celtics (+6.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 226)
  2. Denver Nuggets (+4) hosting Toronto Raptors (Over/Under = 216)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Steph Curry (GSW) @ BOS: DK:$9,400/FD:$9,100

He's been under priced all year and disappointing throughout most of the season due to the addition of Kevin Durant, but Curry's certainly rediscovered some of his mojo of late. The two-time reigning MVP has produced at least 30 points, 6 assists and 51 DK points (47 FD points) in three straight games, yet he remains priced below several other PGs on both main DFS sites. I'm fine with Curry in any format tonight in the most appealing game to target, as the Celtics might get Jae Crowder (ankle) and/or Al Horford (concussion) back right in time for this huge litmus test against the Dubs. Boston's previously stout defense against opposing guards has fallen apart this year, as this team is suddenly 25th in defensive rating and 20th in scoring defense (105.8 PPG) this season, which is why this game has a lofty 226-point Over/Under and great implications for DFS stacks.

Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. GSW DK:$7,900/FD:$8,300

Last year’s meeting between the Warriors and Celtics at the TD Garden was an instant classic that went into double overtime and obviously provided lucrative returns for all obvious DFS plays. Thomas was somewhat quiet with 18 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds and 6 turnovers in that tilt, but he’s been playing out of his mind this year and is a good bet to produce more than that even if he only plays his usual 34 minutes in a regulation game. Golden State gives up the sixth-most FPPG (46.05) to opposing PGs this season and fourth-most PPG (109.4) overall while ranking third in pace. That explains the lofty Over/Under in a meeting with the Celtics eighth-ranked offense, and IT4 is clearly the general of that unit with a career-best 33.5% Usage Rate and 35.1% Assist Rate on the season.

Potential Value

Tony Parker ($4400/$4500) remains relatively cheap on both main DFS sites and he’s been consistent lately as long as he’s active. Yogi Ferrell ($3000/$3700) is a true punt play to consider if you predict a blowout in OKC.

Longshot

I like Mike Conley ($6800/$7200) as a candidate to torch the shorthanded Mavs backcourt tonight. Darren Collison ($5000/$5900) is worth a look as a mid-tier option as well.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) @ DEN: DK:$8,600/FD:$9,200

With just one game under 30 points or under 42 DK points all season, DeRozan has proven to be an elite cash game play with enough upside to warrant consideration in all formats. He draws a great matchup tonight against the young Nuggets, who are giving up the second-most FPPG (41.44) and most PPG (26.18) to opposing SGs this season. Denver plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and Toronto is deadly with the second-highest offensive rating per 100 possessions, mainly thanks to DeRozan’s mark of 45.5 points on 52.9% FG shooting per 100 possessions. He’s a problem for all teams right now and the Nuggets will have no answers with Gary Harris (foot) inactive this evening.

Seth Curry (DAL) vs. MEM: DK:$5,200/FD:$4,100

Steph's younger brother can be considered a must play at that price tag on FanDuel and an appealing tournament option on DK. Both of the Mavericks aging PGs (J.J. Barea and Deron Williams) are now on the shelf with calf injuries, opening the door for Curry to log big minutes as essentially the only ball handler on the roster. Dirk Nowitzki (achilles) is also questionable tonight, so it will be Curry, Wes Matthews and Harrison Barnes doing the heavy lifting on offense against a Grizzlies team that is declining defensively. Memphis coughs up the fourth-most PPG (24.73) to opposing SGs this season, while Curry is playing 32.3 MPG over his last four appearances with a 21.1% Usage Rate that is sure to spike in his new role as starting PG.

Potential Value

J.J. Redick ($4500/$4500) continues to exceed value through the sheer volume of his scoring, and he’s worth a look against the Kings weak defense tonight.

Longshot

With so many other Mavs out, Wesley Matthews ($4900/$4700) dropped 22 points while hitting 7-of-13 threes on Wednesday and he could see a heavy workload once again.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Paul George (IND) vs. PHO: DK:$8,100/FD:$8,600

This game has sneaky shootout potential with two teams that are top 10 in pace and bottom 10 in terms of PPG allowed this season. With an Over/Under of 218 points, the Pacers and Suns could certainly light up the scoreboard, and that gives PG13 a good chance to put together his fifth consecutive great game. The superstar is averaging 22 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.25 APG over his last four appearances and now he’ll face a Suns team that is giving up the second-most FPPG (44.0) to opposing SFs this season. Phoenix gives up the most PPG (116) in the NBA and actually leads the league in pace, so feel free to use players on both sides of the ball, including an upper-tier sleeper in Paul George on a night where LeBron, KD, and Kawhi might get all the hype.

Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. TOR: DK:$5,500/FD:$5,700

The best per dollar play on Wednesday night will look for an encore after seeing only a slight pay bump on both main DFS sites. Chandler led the young Nuggets with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists in a win over Phoenix and he seems to be the only player earning the trust of meddling HC Mike Malone right now. The veteran is a solid presence on both ends of the floor and he should continue to get buckets against a Toronto squad that gives up the eighth-most PPG (21.27) to opposing SFs this season. There’s nothing fancy about this play, just a solid cash game option that could surprise by exceeding value in a second consecutive game.

Potential Value

Vince Carter ($4500/$4400) has emerged as a more reliable play with Chandler Parsons (knee) struggling to stay on the floor for Memphis.

Longshot

Harrison Barnes ($6600/$6100) would really have to step up to keep the Mavs competitive against the Grizzlies tonight. If you’re looking for a punt play, consider Matt Barnes ($3800/$3900) against his former team in the Clippers.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Terrence Jones (NO) @ POR: DK:$6,200/FD:$5,000

You might not want to pay up for Jones on DK if Anthony Davis (quad) returns to action tonight, but he’s probably still worth a look at that modest price tag on FanDuel. He continues to prove his worth to Pelicans HC Alvin Gentry and might earn a start alongside Davis in a good matchup against the Blazers this evening. Portland is ranked 29th in defensive rating, gives up the second-most PPG (112.4) and should be generally exhausted after running in a shootout at Houston last night. The Blazers also give up the sixth-most FPPG (47.01) to opposing PFs and lack beef down low, so The Brow might wind up serving as a sneaky GPP play if he’s active while T-Jones should continue to pile up points and rebounds regardless.

Kenneth Faried (DEN) vs. TOR: DK:$5,900/FD:$6,300

Disclaimer: Do not play any Nuggets in cash games outside of Wilson Chandler. This is especially true with Denver’s big men, as Mike Malone continues to play around with his rotation while completely sapping the value of young studs Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Yet, when those centers sit, someone has to play the 5 and control the boards, and that’s been Faried lately with 71 points and 70 rebounds over his last five appearances. Tonight’s matchup wouldn’t be ideal for him at that position against traditional center Jonas Valanciunas, but the Manimal should still log plenty of minutes at PF and he could beast the Raptors uninspiring combination of Pascal Siakam and Patrick Patterson at that position.

Potential Value

Patrick Patterson ($3900/$3900) is a great cash game play as one of the primary scores off the bench for Toronto.

Longshot

Amir Johnson ($4300/$4300) would be an even better play if Horford remains out for Boston, but either way he should get plenty of run as a versatile defender who is capable of switching onto Golden State’s premier scorers.

Centers

Two Studs

Marc Gasol (MEM) @ DAL: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,100

Big Spain isn’t the best tournament play on a full slate, but he continues to meet value and provide solid returns in cash games. The Grizzlies most important player on both ends of the floor has expanded his game by hitting 16 threes this season and his ability to draw massive center Andrew Bogut away from the basket should negate the Australian’s defensive prowess on the low block. Gasol averaged 17.7 PPG, 8 RPG and 2 STL/BLK per game over his three appearances against Dallas last year and his MPG have been steadily rising as he continues to overcome a lingering foot injury that led to his low price tag at the opening of the season.

Mike Muscala (ATL) @ CHA: DK:$4,800/FD:$4,300 as PF

You'll have to wait for official word on Dwight Howard (quad) before using Muscala in cash games, but D12 has certainly not been durable in recent years and it would be more surprising if he returns from an injury that was described as "very painful" just two days ago. That would open the door for Muscala to log another start after he produced 16 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists over 33 minutes to exceed value on both main DFS sites last Wednesday night. Now he'll face a Hornets squad that's using a revolving door at center and giving up an above average 46.43 FPPG to the position as a result, so he shouldn't have much trouble exceeding value if given the opportunity to start.

Potential Value

Tyson Chandler ($4700/$4700) is a good pivot off Muscala if it looks like Dwight will play and the veteran rebounder has some upside in a fast-paced tilt at Indiana.

Longshot

Pau Gasol ($6000/$6200) is coming alive for the Spurs and he should be motivated to burn his former teammates at the Staples Center tonight.


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