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Plays of the Day
Value: Jonathan Gibson should play a role with the Mavericks laughably shorthanded in the backcourt. The rookie out of New Mexico State produced 11 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists over 20 minutes last night, which is better per minute production than HC Rick Carlisle got from essentially anyone else on his struggling squad, so he might see even more run tonight in a good matchup against Orlando.
Fade: John Wall surprisingly met value while playing 31 minutes on the second half of a B2B this past Thursday, but now he faces a Miami squad that’s allowed the second-fewest FPPG to opposing PGs this season and should do a good job of containing Wall with quick guards on the perimeter and Hassan Whiteside protecting the basket.
Games to Target
- New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5) hosting Charlotte Hornets (Over/Under = 206)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+2) hosting Phoenix Suns (Over/Under = 215)
Chris Paul (LAC) vs. CHI: DK:$8,400/FD:$9,300
He remains under priced on DK despite his flirtation with a triple double last night and Paul is a fantastic option on that DFS site. He tends to step up his scoring more often in closer contests, and the Clippers (-7) should receiver a challenge from a Bulls team that’s ranked seventh in offensive rating this season. Chicago might be forced to start second-year PG Jerian Grant with Rajon Rondo (ankle) questionable tonight, and CP3 could eat him for lunch. He’s been one of the most consistent performers in the NBA over the past several years and his career averages (18.8 PPG, 9.3 APG) are right on par with his usual marks when he’s playing on 0 days rest.
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) @ DET DK:$7,700/FD:$8,300
The Celtics absolutely fell apart in the second half against the elite Warriors and Thomas barely played as a result, as you can bet that HC Brad Stevens immediately started thinking ahead to the second half of their B2B set at Detroit. He draws a great matchup in this bounce back spot against a Pistons squad that allows the third-most FPPG (47.27) to opposing PGs and was just eviscerated by a similar score-first PG in Kyrie Irving (25 points on 11-of-14 shooting) last night. Boston completely lacks offensive playmakers aside from Thomas, so he needed the rest that he received last night, but he should be ready to carry his squad in a winnable game on the road tonight.
Ricky Rubio ($5800/$6300) played limited snaps in a blowout win on Thursday but remains under priced because of those numbers. Jrue Holiday ($6000) is also a great bargain on DK.
Jerian Grant ($4100/$4000) will definitely be worth a look in all formats if Rondo is unable to play tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. GSW: DK:$9,100 as PG/FD:$9,600
The Warriors are officially a dangerous team to target despite their poor defensive numbers this season, as they’re fresh off a sixth consecutive double-digit win since losing to the Lakers a couple of weeks ago. Golden State (-7.5) could easily cover the spread in Milwaukee tonight, but that doesn’t mean Giannis won’t get his in a track meet with a team that ranks third in pace and allows the seventh-most PPG (107.6) this season. The Warriors really lack rim protection with Zaza Pachulia taking over for Andrew Bogut and Giannis is shooting a career-best 53.6% on shots within three feet of the basket with a career-high 28.1% Usage Rate for the young Bucks.
Jonathan Gibson (DAL) @ ORL: DK:$3,300/FD:$3,500 as PG
Seth Curry is still the preferred play at just $4,100 on FanDuel despite the Mavericks team-wide flop last night, but Gibson should play a role with this team laughably shorthanded in the backcourt. In his first game as a Maverick, the rookie out of New Mexico State produced 11 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists over 20 minutes, which is better per minute production than HC Rick Carlisle got from essentially anyone else on his struggling squad. With aging SG Wes Matthews potentially limited on the second half of a B2B set, Gibson should get even more run in a better matchup this evening and he could exceed value rather easily.
J.J. Redick ($4700/$4500) is on a really nice hot streak shooting the ball and he should continue to find success against aging SG Dwyane Wade.
Nik Stauskas ($3200/$3800) continues to perform better than starting SG Gerald Henderson and he draws a great matchup tonight against the Suns.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ MIL: DK:$9,400/FD:$9,700
Durant appears to be impervious to blowouts and bad matchups, as he’s shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the field while averaging 25.6 PPG over his last five appearances. That type of efficiency makes him a fantastic cash game play and he remains under priced on DK for some reason. Milwaukee gives up the ninth-most FPPG (40.03) to opposing SFs this season and the Bucks might have athleticism as that position, but they lack the experience or defensive toughness necessary to contain the Durantala. KD actually averaged 28.6 PPG on more APG (5.4) on 0 days rest than any other situation last year, so it’s not a concern that he’ll be playing his second straight road game.
James Johnson (MIA) @ WAS: DK:$4,200/FD:$4,000
With Justise Winslow (wrist) potentially out for a third straight game, Johnson could remain an excellent value play as the Heat's primary SF. Even if rookie Rodney McGruder draws the start, it will be JJ playing a bigger role down the stretch due to his ability to defend, rebound, and move the ball like you would expect from a veteran. Despite his lack of scoring, Johnson is averaging 24.1 DK PPG over his last six appearances, because he's producing 7.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes and he's seeing close to 30 MPG with the Heat shorthanded lately.
I would expect Chandler Parsons (knee) to sit and veteran Vince Carter to play limited minutes tonight with Memphis on the second half of a B2B set, which makes James Ennis ($4100/$3900) a solid value for cash games.
He draws a brutal matchup tonight, but Andrew Wiggins ($7800/$7300) is on fire right now and he’s worth a look in GPP formats.
Anthony Davis (NO) @ CHA: DK:$10,800/FD:$11,400
For me, it's Davis at this price tag on DraftKings, or Terrence Jones ($6200/$5000) as an under priced option on FanDuel tonight, but both PFs could put up consecutive big lines this evening. The Brow returned with a vengeance to dominate the Blazers for 38 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 blocks after a one game absence and he draws another good matchup tonight against Charlotte's under sized front court. While the Hornets defense is highly rated, they don't have the personnel to contain Davis with 6-foot-7 PF Marvin Williams starting and several poor defenders rotating in at center. Davis averaged 31 PPG and 9 RPG over two meetings with the Hornets last year during an injury-plagued 2015-16 season and he's been much better so far this year.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. CHI: DK:$8,300/FD:$8,800
Blake is a fine consolation at PF if you can’t afford The Brow, but I think you should have one of those superstars in your lineup tonight. The Clippers third-ranked offense runs through Paul and Griffin with more consistency than any other tandem in the NBA, and Blake has scored 20-plus points in seven of his last eight appearances. Chicago gives up the ninth-most FPPG (43.87) to opposing PFs this season and Griffin shouldn’t have much trouble bullying Nikola Mirotic or blowing past slower PF Taj Gibson in this home game.
Ersan Ilyasova ($4000/$3900) is a solid cash game option in an appealing tilt with the Suns tonight, while Jared Dudley ($3700/$3800) represents more of a boom or bust option in the same contest.
Serge Ibaka ($5400/$5700) draws a sneaky-good matchup tonight against the weak Mavs frontcourt.
Andre Drummond (DET) vs. BOS: DK:$7,600/FD:$8,000
The Pistons are another team that got rocked last night, affording some of their starters more rest ahead of what should be a close game tonight. Drummond logged just 27 minutes in a brutal matchup against the Cavs, but now he faces a Celtics team that’s ranked 24th in total rebounding and coughs up the fifth-most FPPG (49.27) to opposing centers this season. Boston really struggles to contain big centers and should be without Al Horford (concussion) for a tenth consecutive contest. Drummond averaged 16.8 PPG and 13 RPG over his last four appearances against the Celtics and he’s put together some 20-20 games in the right matchups this season.
Alex Len (PHO) @ PHI: DK:$4,600/FD:$4,800 as PF
Tyson Chandler will likely miss a second consecutive game while he attends his mother's funeral, opening the door for Len to log another start. While he managed to produce a double double over 22 minutes, it's concerning that Suns HC Earl Watson benched his entire SLU with the bench proving more effective in a blowout win over the Pacers last night. While that could become a trend, it also keeps the big-bodied Len well rested ahead of a plus matchup against the 76ers 26th ranked defense tonight. Philadelphia is giving up the tenth-most FPPG (47.5) to opposing centers this year and Len's dirt cheap price tag provides plenty of salary relief.
Robin Lopez ($4800/$4700) turned in a third consecutive double double on Thursday and he’ll be needed to play big minutes tonight against DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers.
While Joel Embiid ($6400/$5500) lost his first H2H battle against Karl-Anthony Towns, he should dominate a weak Suns frontcourt over his 25-30 minutes of run tonight.