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UFC Fight Night 100 DFS Breakdown

UFC Expert Casey Olson helps prepare you for tonight's UFC card headlined by the Bader-Nogueira fight!

O que há acima do exército do escuteiro! Let’s head to Brazil Saturday night for UFC Fight Night 100!  We are coming off another money maker last weekend with UFC 205’s huge night and selections coming through big.  To recap, a few fighters I fully supported locking up in those lineups that really paid off included:

  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Winner via 5 round beat down - 120.5 points) What I stated: “We get to see Joanna champ put on another clinic.  Although Kowalkiewicz has yet to be beat, I just don’t see her keeping up with the output we will see from Joanna.  Five round title fight + Joanna’s output = some serious points for your roster.”
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov (Winner via SUB - 120 points) What I stated: “I posted earlier in the week in the premium forums about Khabib.  In my opinion the guy should already have the belt.”
  • Conor McGregor (Winner via TKO -  116 points) What I stated: “Eddie tends to take shots to land shots, while on the other side McGregor hits harder than the majority of these guys.  Just look at how he’s folded some of his opponents.  Mendes, Diamond, Aldo, etc.  Eddie will look to close the distance and land a takedown, but I believe Conor will eventually land and hurt Alvarez.   It’s hard to look past what Conor just achieved by dropping and defeating Nick Diaz up at 170, a much larger guy compared to Eddie.” 
  • …and big Draft Kings underdog Yoel Romero (Winner via KO - 74 points) What I stated: “Man…  Yoel is tough.  He just bullies guys.  Just a strong mofo.  I just watched some tape of some of his training camp and he’s just throwing guys around.  Chris Weidman’s game plan has got to be picking spots and influencing the judges under the home town lights with the crowd pop.  I don’t think he can KO Yoel, but if he can avoid Yoel’s big shot, he’s most likely on his way to a decision victory.  I have a hard time picking guys that are coming off of KO/TKO losses though.”

Congrats to those that cashed some games last week.  Some of you put up some monster lineups and easily made money!   Let’s do it again!  Time to head to Sao Paulo, Brazil for Fight Night 100!

You know how we do. Let us first recap how to throw down some points with my tips and strategy to consider for MMA DFS.

Alright, “vamos fazer isso” aka “let’s do this!”  Breakdown time.

First, my Heat Chart breakdown:

Now as you learned last week, two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here’s my Offensive Output Meter for UFC Fight Night 100. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday night.

Now that we got the stack out of the way, let’s break down some match ups.

Bader ($9500) vs Nogueira ($6700)

Lil Nog's chance at redemption. These two fought six years ago, and Bader cruised to a unanimous decision victory. This is Bader's last fight on his contract, and he was previously offered to resign. You have to bet (as he is) that he is going to go out there and look to validate his worth with a dominant victory against Nog, leveraging his wrestling and takedowns, against Nog’s lackluster 66% TD defense. Keep in mind that Nog has only been stopped twice. Once against Rumble (duh) and the only other time was back in 2007 against Sokoudjou. At the end of the night I see Bader outclassing Nogueira, and with all the talk about Bader’s contract being up, I suspect we will be talking about Nog joining his brother in retirement.

Almeida ($9700) vs. Morales ($6500)

Remember when the UFC had Almeida taking photos backstage with the belt long before he got KO'd by Garbrandt? They were just about all in on this guy taking over the division. Saturday night in front of his hometown fans he should get back on track. Almeida leads all fighters on this card via finish odds (-153), and SLpM (6.52). This guy is violent. His opponent Morales has yet to lose, and typically is aggressive and looking to control, but I don't see his striking power matching that of Almeida, who as you can see has 80% of his victories via knockout. Morales has yet to win in the UFC, coming off a draw back in September, and I don't anticipate him flying over from California, to get the job done. Almeida has 13 KO’s in the first round. That could mean a quick 100+ points.

Gadelha ($9200) vs. Casey ($7000)

Gadelha has only lost twice, both to Joanna Champ, and many argue she won their first meeting. To me, Gadelha would be the champ of the division, if Joanna wasn’t around. Easy. Casey is a game fighter, but Gadelha is a step up here in comparison to her last two matchups (Stanciu, who’s been cut) and Markos. Watch for Gadelha to land multiple takedowns and notch up another win on her way back to another title shot.

Leites ($8300) vs. Jotko ($7900)

Jotko's only been finished via submission, which so happens to be Leites' strength. Jotko's grappling defense just doesn't match the pressure Leites should bring. Now I've seen a lot of folks siding with Jotko, but to me, that is what we will see for the first couple of minutes; A close striking match. Then I anticipate Leites and his submission/grappling game taking over.

Alves ($7400) vs. Usman ($8800)

Alves is your typical one and done fighter. He will look to finish early, but eventually gas. He fades quickly. As long as Usman can weather the storm, he most likely will win via decision. A couple of stats stick out to me here. Usman's takedowns averaging over 7 per fight, and the method of victory %'s for Alves compared to Usman's only loss.

Moraes ($8700) vs. Ottow ($7500)

Ottow was brought in short notice to fight Burkman last fight and surprised everyone. He again could be a live dog here from a betting standpoint, but not DFS for me. Moraes has been finished once by KO, something Ottow just isn't known for. (I think he has one) If this gets into a "who can land a submission first" match, I will take Moraes. I could see a very close fight here with the Brazilian crowd swaying the judges here, but from a DFS perspective, I'm out.

Hermansson ($8900) vs Ferreira ($7300)

Ferreira looked alright in his last two, but I think Hermansson has the better overall skill set in comparison to Smith or Bamgbose. I like the odds of Hermansson catching him and finishing via TKO/KO. Ferreira is just too risky. Sorry Brazil.

De Lima ($8500) vs Antigulov ($7700)

This fight most likely doesn't see the final bell. The newcomer from Russia is making his UFC debut, versus Pezao at home, who just got done working over Clint Hester. I will be looking to roster De Lima who should be able to fend off the grappling and land.

Eduardo ($8600) vs. Gamburyan ($7600)

Gamburyan will be undersized, and if Eduardo plays it cool, he should stay at range and look to land a big bomb. Although Manny got cracked and finished quick by Dodson, before that, he had not been finished since fighting Jose Aldo in 2010. If Gamburyan can get inside, he has a legit (ok, more like +500) shot and submitting this guy. This may just be my value shot here.

Henrique ($9000) vs Colombo ($7200)

Heavyweights! Did I mention that Brazil has about a 65% win-rate for Brazilians fighting at home in the UFC? Matchmaking at its finest. Colombo looked tough as nails against Man Mountain Danho, but Henrique should be another whole mountain to climb here. Stick to what worked last fight against Smoliakov Henrique and let's get a second submission victory in a row here! (The 5.07 SLpM are heavily skewed in my opinion here)

Munhoz ($7800) vs Scoggins ($8400)

If you don’t have Fight Pass, you’ll be missing this fight, unless we get some quick finishes and they decide to replay on Fox. This should be good. Stats aside, Munhoz is the better grappler and should have more power. Scoggins will probably have noticeably more output. I can't look past the fact Munhoz took Rivera to a split and hooked up a very slick Guillotine on Russell Doane. If he can outwrestle Scoggins, and at least lay on some attempts, he could quite possibly land an upset here. Close fight to call but oddsmakers have Scoggins winning here.

Barroso ($8000) vs. Stewart ($8200)

Stewart is debuting in this spot against a larger fighter in Barroso. Barroso should win here at home against Stewart coming over from England with a padded record against sub 500 opponents.

Alright. I’m off to the Brazilian steak house to get warmed up. Hit me up if you have any questions or want some added thoughts. @Y2CASEY on Twitter. Cash em #ScoutArmy.

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