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Projecting Week 11 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Ownership percentage is one of the things that we must take into consideration when creating out tournaments lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win a big tournament.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analyst or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint the picture of where the crowd is headed.

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 450 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Marcus Mariota

40%

Cam Newton (played Thu)

31%

Kirk Cousins

21%

Drew Brees (played Thu)

18%

Andrew Luck

17%

I will go ahead and leave out the quarterbacks that played on Thursday night as that slate is behind us. Marcus Mariota gets a good matchup this week and comes at a reasonable price, so ownership will naturally be higher in situations like these. However, considering his huge game last week, recency bias kicks in, hence the insanely high ownership. It is unlikely he will be this highly owned this weekend, and I am unsure if he will be the highest owned quarterback, but he will be one of them and rightfully so. Everyone saw what Mariota did to the Packers defense last week, so Kirk Cousins has become a fan favorite for Week 11. He has not been great this season, but does have two 300+ yard outings in his last three games and also comes at a very cheap price tag. It will be a close battle between him and Mariota for the top spot as far as ownership is concerned. Since we had a couple of quarterbacks absorbing some ownership on Thursday night, I anticipate Andrew Luck to be closer to the 20 percent range this weekend. He faces a Titans team that he carved up nicely just a few weeks ago and before his last game, he has strung together several solid performances.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Tom Brady

12%

Blake Bortles

9%

Ben Roethlisberger

5%

Eli Manning

1%

Due to the Thursday night game having two good options at quarterback that may have thrown off some of the potential ownership for this week at this position. For instance, I have Tom Brady projected closer to the 15-18 percent range. He travels to the West Coast to take on the 49ers who are atrocious and the Patriots have the highest implied team total of the weekend. Blake Bortles at nine percent ownership makes sense; I had him at 10-12 percent in my projections, so I think this is accurate for him. I will say, I have heard some buzz about him, so have considered projecting him at 10-15 percent. Ben Roethlisberger at five percent caught me by surprise if I am honest. I was expecting much higher ownership against the Browns. I understand that the potential weather played a key role in this, but if the weather is fine to come Sunday, I am anticipating his ownership to skyrocketing into the mid-to-high teens, potentially higher. The Browns are yielding 285.9 passing yards per game to go along with 25 passing touchdowns. Big Ben has shredded this defense in his last two meetings against them. Eli Manning at one percent was also surprising to me. He is affordable, has a good matchup, and if you look at his recent performances at home, he has been lights out. In his last three home games, he is averaging 300 passing yards, while throwing ten touchdowns. I am unsure what I am missing, but he is someone I might be bullish on this weekend in tournaments because all the boxes are checking off.

Running Back

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Le’Veon Bell

33%

Theo Riddick

29%

LeGarrette Blount

26%

Spencer Ware

24%

LeSean McCoy

21%

Le’Veon Bell playing against the Browns and being the highest owned running back is self-explanatory. The Browns defense is allowing 28.3 rush attempts and 129.1 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing touchdowns. Also, they have surrendered 38 receptions, 320 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Bell is chalk this week and rightfully so. Theo Riddick is coming in as the second highest running back was very surprising to me. I do not think that he will be this popular this weekend as I have him projected at the 10-14 percent range. He is in a good spot, but there are running backs at lower prices on some sites that may generate more interest. LeGarrette Blount being the third highest owned running back is not surprising, and at the end of the weekend, I would not be shocked to see him as the highest owned back either. He has a phenomenal matchup and is a touchdown machine. His price has gone up, but it is still reasonable considering the situation. Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy are two backs I like a lot this week but do not anticipate to be this highly owned over the weekend. I have them projected in the 5-10 percent range.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

DeMarco Murray

16%

C.J. Prosise

16%

Frank Gore

14%

Ezekiel Elliott

4%

David Johnson

4%

James Starks

2%

I included some running backs that were greater than 14 percent owned here because I think they will receive more attention this weekend. Of course, it is site dependent, as pricing matters. C.J. Prosise, on a site like DraftKings, will arguably be top three as far as ownership is concerned, simply because of his price tag and the fact he is starting. DeMarco Murray could be lower owned than 16 percent on some sites as the price difference between he and Bell is not significant, and people will flock towards Bell. I have Murray projected at 10-15 percent. Ezekiel Elliott at four percent seems a bit unrealistic for this weekend, and while I do not think he will be very popular either, my current projection for him is 12-15 percent ownership. I am having difficulties gauging James Starks this week as he faces a Redskins defense that struggles to stop the run and also comes at a low price, but I do not hear any buzz surrounding him, making him an intriguing tournament play for me this week. I have him projected at 5-8 percent, but I might be trimming that down to 3-6 percent.

Wide Receiver

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jamison Crowder

28%

T.Y. Hilton

21%

Donte Moncrief

18%

Terrelle Pryor

17%

People are clearly focusing on attacking this Packers defense through the air and Jamison Crowder as the highest owned wide receiver in this slate is a sign of that. However, I do not think that he will be anywhere near this ownership on Sunday. I have him projected closer to the 10-15 percent range as I feel the player who will receive the most attention on this offense is Jordan Reed. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are going to be popular, and this ownership percentage seems about right. This game has a high total, and the Colts are expected to score some points. The matchup is also a favorable one, leading to the ownership percentage being this high. There are other receivers that I will discuss below that I expect to be more attractive than Thursday's slate suggested.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Cameron Meredith

8%

Golden Tate

6%

Julian Edelman

6%

Antonio Brown

5%

Odell Beckham

4%

There are some receivers on the list above that should be much higher owned than they were in this Aces tournaments. For starters, there has been a lot of buzz surrounding Julian Edelman and the matchup is great, so I am expecting his ownership to be much higher. I currently have him projected at 15-20 percent and would not be surprised if it were higher, especially in PPR sites. With the value at running back, I expect people to pay up for wide receivers which is why I have both Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham projected much higher this week. For Brown, I have him at 18-22 percent and for Beckham, I have him at 15-18 percent. Brown is averaging 11.8 targets, 8.8 receptions, 140 yards, and has scored four touchdowns in his last four games against the Browns, eclipsing 100 yards in each of those games. Beckham is averaging 103.5 receiving yards, 6.9 receptions, and 25.1 fantasy points per game in his last four games while scoring five touchdowns. Both have great matchups as well. Cameron Meredith is set to be the Bears No.1 WR this week while Alshon Jeffery serves his suspension. Meredith is dirt cheap across the industry and will likely be more popular than he was on Thursday. I have him projected at 14-18 percent.

Tight End

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jordan Reed

24%

Martellus Bennett

18%

Greg Olsen (played Thu)

15%

Delanie Walker

14%

I am pretty sure that with the news of Gronk being officially out, Martellus Bennett will be the highest owned tight end this weekend. He comes at a dirt cheap price and has a great matchup, not to mention, he is a talented tight end. Jordan Reed will most likely come in second with Delanie Walker in third. These three are clearly the best options at this position this week.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Julius Thomas

6%

Travis Kelce

2%

If you are steering away from the crowd, here are two tight ends that are in play. Julius Thomas faces the Lions in a game where they should be chasing and versus a defense that struggles against tight ends. Both tight ends will be sub 10 percent owned on most sites this week.

Good luck to all this week. For any questions or comments, you can always reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal


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